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Modeling hourly electricity dynamics for policy making in long-term scenarios

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  • Pina, André
  • Silva, Carlos
  • Ferrão, Paulo

Abstract

Energy policies are often related to the global effort in reducing greenhouse gas emissions through increased use of renewable energies in electricity production. The impact of these policies is usually calculated by energy planning tools. However, the modeling methodologies most currently used are not adequate to simulate long-term scenarios while considering the hourly dynamics of supply and demand. This paper presents an extension of the TIMES energy planning tool for investment decisions in electricity production that considers seasonal, daily and hourly supply and demand dynamics. The inclusion of these dynamics enables the model to produce more accurate results in what concerns the impact of introducing energy efficiency policies and the increased use of renewable energies. The model was validated in São Miguel (Azores, Portugal) for the years 2006-2009, where a comparison with real data showed that the model can simulate the supply and demand dynamics. Further, the long-term analysis shows that the inclusion of these dynamics contributes to a better assessment of the renewable energy potential, suggests the postponement of investments in new generation capacity, and demonstrates that using fine time resolution modeling is very valuable for the design of effective policy measures under high renewable penetration energy systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Pina, André & Silva, Carlos & Ferrão, Paulo, 2011. "Modeling hourly electricity dynamics for policy making in long-term scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4692-4702, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:9:p:4692-4702
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Haller, Markus & Ludig, Sylvie & Bauer, Nico, 2012. "Decarbonization scenarios for the EU and MENA power system: Considering spatial distribution and short term dynamics of renewable generation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 282-290.
    3. Pina, André & Silva, Carlos A. & Ferrão, Paulo, 2013. "High-resolution modeling framework for planning electricity systems with high penetration of renewables," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 215-223.
    4. repec:eee:rensus:v:80:y:2017:i:c:p:1389-1398 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Merkel, Erik & Fehrenbach, Daniel & McKenna, Russell & Fichtner, Wolf, 2014. "Modelling decentralised heat supply: An application and methodological extension in TIMES," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 592-605.
    6. Pina, André & Baptista, Patrícia & Silva, Carlos & Ferrão, Paulo, 2014. "Energy reduction potential from the shift to electric vehicles: The Flores island case study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 37-47.
    7. repec:eee:rensus:v:79:y:2017:i:c:p:110-127 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. John Foster & William Paul Bell & Craig Froome & Phil Wild & Liam Wagner & Deepak Sharma & Suwin Sandu & Suchi Misra & Ravindra Bagia, 2012. "Institutional adaptability to redress electricity infrastructure vulnerability due to climate change," Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers 7-2012, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    9. Foster, John & Bell, William Paul & Wild, Phillip & Sharma, Deepak & Sandu, Suwin & Froome, Craig & Wagner, Liam & Misra, Suchi & Bagia, Ravindra, 2013. "Analysis of institutional adaptability to redress electricity infrastructure vulnerability due to climate change," MPRA Paper 47787, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Gerbelová, Hana & Amorim, Filipa & Pina, André & Melo, Mário & Ioakimidis, Christos & Ferrão, Paulo, 2014. "Potential of CO2 (carbon dioxide) taxes as a policy measure towards low-carbon Portuguese electricity sector by 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 113-119.
    11. Nahmmacher, Paul & Schmid, Eva & Hirth, Lion & Knopf, Brigitte, 2016. "Carpe diem: A novel approach to select representative days for long-term power system modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 430-442.
    12. repec:eee:rensus:v:76:y:2017:i:c:p:839-856 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Fehrenbach, Daniel & Merkel, Erik & McKenna, Russell & Karl, Ute & Fichtner, Wolf, 2014. "On the economic potential for electric load management in the German residential heating sector – An optimising energy system model approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 263-276.
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    15. Hagos, Dejene Assefa & Gebremedhin, Alemayehu & Bolkesjø, Torjus Folsland, 2017. "The prospects of bioenergy in the future energy system of Inland Norway," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 78-91.
    16. Haller, Markus & Ludig, Sylvie & Bauer, Nico, 2012. "Bridging the scales: A conceptual model for coordinated expansion of renewable power generation, transmission and storage," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 2687-2695.
    17. Suomalainen, K. & Silva, C. & Ferrão, P. & Connors, S., 2013. "Wind power design in isolated energy systems: Impacts of daily wind patterns," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 533-540.
    18. Merrick, James H., 2016. "On representation of temporal variability in electricity capacity planning models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 261-274.
    19. Poncelet, Kris & Delarue, Erik & Six, Daan & Duerinck, Jan & D’haeseleer, William, 2016. "Impact of the level of temporal and operational detail in energy-system planning models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 631-643.
    20. Amorim, Filipa & Pina, André & Gerbelová, Hana & Pereira da Silva, Patrícia & Vasconcelos, Jorge & Martins, Victor, 2014. "Electricity decarbonisation pathways for 2050 in Portugal: A TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) based approach in closed versus open systems modelling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 104-112.

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