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The impact of future energy demand on renewable energy production – Case of Norway

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  • Rosenberg, Eva
  • Lind, Arne
  • Espegren, Kari Aamodt

Abstract

Projections of energy demand are an important part of analyses of policies to promote conservation, efficiency, technology implementation and renewable energy production. The development of energy demand is a key driver of the future energy system. This paper presents long-term projections of the Norwegian energy demand as a two-step methodology of first using activities and intensities to calculate a demand of energy services, and secondly use this as input to the energy system model TIMES-Norway to optimize the Norwegian energy system. Long-term energy demand projections are uncertain and the purpose of this paper is to illustrate the impact of different projections on the energy system. The results of the analyses show that decreased energy demand results in a higher renewable fraction compared to an increased demand, and the renewable energy production increases with increased energy demand. The most profitable solution to cover increased demand is to increase the use of bio energy and to implement energy efficiency measures. To increase the wind power production, an increased renewable target or higher electricity export prices have to be fulfilled, in combination with more electricity export.

Suggested Citation

  • Rosenberg, Eva & Lind, Arne & Espegren, Kari Aamodt, 2013. "The impact of future energy demand on renewable energy production – Case of Norway," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 419-431.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:61:y:2013:i:c:p:419-431
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2013.08.044
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    6. Assefa Hagos, Dejene & Gebremedhin, Alemayehu & Folsland Bolkesjø, Torjus, 2015. "Comparing the value of bioenergy in the heating and transport sectors of an electricity-intensive energy system in Norway," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 386-396.
    7. Bjørnebye, Henrik & Hagem, Cathrine & Lind, Arne, 2018. "Optimal location of renewable power," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 1203-1215.
    8. Hagos, Dejene Assefa & Gebremedhin, Alemayehu & Zethraeus, Björn, 2014. "Towards a flexible energy system – A case study for Inland Norway," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 41-50.
    9. Al-Mansour, Fouad & Sucic, Boris & Pusnik, Matevz, 2014. "Challenges and prospects of electricity production from renewable energy sources in Slovenia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 73-81.
    10. Seljom, Pernille & Lindberg, Karen Byskov & Tomasgard, Asgeir & Doorman, Gerard & Sartori, Igor, 2017. "The impact of Zero Energy Buildings on the Scandinavian energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 284-296.
    11. Fehrenbach, Daniel & Merkel, Erik & McKenna, Russell & Karl, Ute & Fichtner, Wolf, 2014. "On the economic potential for electric load management in the German residential heating sector – An optimising energy system model approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 263-276.
    12. Seljom, Pernille & Tomasgard, Asgeir, 2017. "The impact of policy actions and future energy prices on the cost-optimal development of the energy system in Norway and Sweden," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 85-102.
    13. Rečka, L. & Ščasný, M., 2016. "Impacts of carbon pricing, brown coal availability and gas cost on Czech energy system up to 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 19-33.
    14. Huang, Yongfu, 2014. "Drivers of rising global energy demand: The importance of spatial lag and error dependence," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 254-263.
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    16. Hagos, Dejene Assefa & Gebremedhin, Alemayehu & Bolkesjø, Torjus Folsland, 2017. "The prospects of bioenergy in the future energy system of Inland Norway," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 78-91.
    17. Klöckner, Christian A. & Nayum, Alim, 2017. "Psychological and structural facilitators and barriers to energy upgrades of the privately owned building stock," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(P1), pages 1005-1017.

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