Business-as-Unusual: Existing policies in energy model baselines
Baselines are generally accepted as a key input assumption in long-term energy modelling, but energy models have traditionally been poor on identifying baselines assumptions. Notably, transparency on the current policy content of model baselines is now especially critical as long-term climate mitigation policies have been underway for a number of years. This paper argues that the range of existing energy and emissions policies are an integral part of any long-term baseline, and hence already represent a "with-policy" baseline, termed here a Business-as-Unusual (BAuU). Crucially, existing energy policies are not a sunk effort; as impacts of existing policy initiatives are targeted at future years, they may be revised through iterative policy making, and their quantitative effectiveness requires ex-post verification. To assess the long-term role of existing policies in energy modelling, currently identified UK policies are explicitly stripped out of the UK MARKAL Elastic Demand (MED) optimisation energy system model, to generate a BAuU (with-policy) and a REF (without policy) baseline. In terms of long-term mitigation costs, policy-baseline assumptions are comparable to another key exogenous modelling assumption -- that of global fossil fuel prices. Therefore, best practice in energy modelling would be to have both a no-policy reference baseline, and a current policy reference baseline (BAuU). At a minimum, energy modelling studies should have a transparent assessment of the current policy contained within the baseline. Clearly identifying and comparing policy-baseline assumptions are required for cost effective and objective policy making, otherwise energy models will underestimate the true cost of long-term emissions reductions.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Strachan, Neil & Pye, Steve & Kannan, Ramachandran, 2009. "The iterative contribution and relevance of modelling to UK energy policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 850-860, March.
- Kannan, Ramachandran & Strachan, Neil, 2009. "Modelling the UK residential energy sector under long-term decarbonisation scenarios: Comparison between energy systems and sectoral modelling approaches," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 416-428, April.
- Das, Anjana & Rossetti di Valdalbero, Domenico & Virdis, Maria R., 2007. "ACROPOLIS: An example of international collaboration in the field of energy modelling to support greenhouse gases mitigation policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 763-771, February.
- Kuik, Onno & Brander, Luke & Tol, Richard S.J., 2009. "Marginal abatement costs of greenhouse gas emissions: A meta-analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1395-1403, April.
- Strachan, Neil & Kannan, Ramachandran, 2008. "Hybrid modelling of long-term carbon reduction scenarios for the UK," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2947-2963, November.
- Carolyn Fischer & Richard D. Morgenstern, 2006.
"Carbon Abatement Costs: Why the Wide Range of Estimates?,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 73-86.
- Fischer, Carolyn & Morgenstern, Richard, 2003. "Carbon Abatement Costs: Why the Wide Range of Estimates?," Discussion Papers dp-03-42-rev, Resources For the Future.
- Rebeca Jimenez-Rodriguez, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks and Real GDP Growth: Testing for Non-linearity," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-24.
- Pilavachi, P.A. & Dalamaga, Th. & Rossetti di Valdalbero, D. & Guilmot, J.-F., 2008. "Ex-post evaluation of European energy models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1726-1735, May.
- Neil Strachan, 2007. "Setting greenhouse gas emission targets under baseline uncertainty: the Bush Climate Change Initiative," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 455-470, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:33:y:2011:i:2:p:153-160. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.