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Pathways to a low-carbon economy for the UK with the macro-econometric E3MG model

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  • Dagoumas, [alpha].S.
  • Barker, T.S.

Abstract

This paper examines different carbon pathways for achieving deep CO2 reduction targets for the UK using a macro-econometric hybrid model E3MG, which stands for Energy-Economy-Environment Model at the Global level. The E3MG, with the UK as one of its regions, combines a top-down approach for modeling the global economy and for estimating the aggregate and disaggregate energy demand and a bottom-up approach (Energy Technology subModel, ETM) for simulating the power sector, which then provides feedback to the energy demand equations and the whole economy. The ETM submodel uses a probabilistic approach and historical data for estimating the penetration levels of the different technologies, considering their economic, technical and environmental characteristics. Three pathway scenarios (CFH, CLC and CAM) simulate the CO2 reduction by 40%, 60% and 80% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels respectively and are compared with a reference scenario (REF), with no reduction target. The targets are modeled as the UK contribution to an international mitigation effort, such as achieving the G8 reduction targets, which is a more realistic political framework for the UK to move towards deep reductions rather than moving alone. This paper aims to provide modeling evidence that deep reduction targets can be met through different carbon pathways while also assessing the macroeconomic effects of the pathways on GDP and investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Dagoumas, [alpha].S. & Barker, T.S., 2010. "Pathways to a low-carbon economy for the UK with the macro-econometric E3MG model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 3067-3077, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:6:p:3067-3077
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:spr:endesu:v:19:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10668-016-9777-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Wang, Mingxi & Wang, Mingrong & Wang, Shouyang, 2012. "Optimal investment and uncertainty on China's carbon emission abatement," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 871-877.
    3. Sun, Hui & Zhang, Yiting & Wang, Yuning & Li, Lei & Sheng, Yun, 2015. "A social stakeholder support assessment of low-carbon transport policy based on multi-actor multi-criteria analysis: The case of Tianjin," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 103-116.
    4. repec:eee:enepol:v:111:y:2017:i:c:p:179-192 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Mercure, Jean-François & Salas, Pablo, 2012. "An assessement of global energy resource economic potentials," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 322-336.
    6. Pollitt, Hector & Park, Seung-Joon & Lee, Soocheol & Ueta, Kazuhiro, 2014. "An economic and environmental assessment of future electricity generation mixes in Japan – an assessment using the E3MG macro-econometric model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 243-254.
    7. repec:eco:journ2:2017-04-08 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Hall, Lisa M.H. & Buckley, Alastair R., 2016. "A review of energy systems models in the UK: Prevalent usage and categorisation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 607-628.
    9. Jean-Francois Mercure & Pablo Salas, 2013. "An assessment of energy resources for global decarbonisation," 4CMR Working Paper Series 002, University of Cambridge, Department of Land Economy, Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research.
    10. Mercure, Jean-François, 2012. "FTT:Power : A global model of the power sector with induced technological change and natural resource depletion," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 799-811.
    11. Sijm, Jos & Lehmann, Paul & Chewpreecha, Unnada & Gawel, Erik & Mercure, Jean-Francois & Pollitt, Hector & Strunz, Sebastian, 2014. "EU climate and energy policy beyond 2020: Are additional targets and instruments for renewables economically reasonable?," UFZ Discussion Papers 3/2014, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Division of Social Sciences (ÖKUS).
    12. Ashina, Shuichi & Fujino, Junichi & Masui, Toshihiko & Ehara, Tomoki & Hibino, Go, 2012. "A roadmap towards a low-carbon society in Japan using backcasting methodology: Feasible pathways for achieving an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 584-598.

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    Keywords

    Carbon pathways Low-carbon economy CO2 reductions;

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