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The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios--Part II: Scenarios for a 60% CO2 reduction in the UK


  • Anderson, Kevin L.
  • Mander, Sarah L.
  • Bows, Alice
  • Shackley, Simon
  • Agnolucci, Paolo
  • Ekins, Paul


This paper describes the Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios, the first to take account of CO2 emissions from the whole of the UK's energy system, including emissions from international shipping and aviation. It builds on Part I, which outlined the backcasting methodology developed to generate the scenarios. The five scenarios produced through this process articulate alternative vision of a substantially decarbonised society in 2050, ranging from a halving of energy consumption from current levels to a near doubling. This work demonstrates that a 60% reduction in the UK's CO2 emissions is achievable, even when all CO2 sources are taken into account. The impacts and consequences of the scenarios were assessed by means of a multi-criteria framework which cautions us that the high energy demand scenarios will have a large impact on broader sustainability criteria.

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  • Anderson, Kevin L. & Mander, Sarah L. & Bows, Alice & Shackley, Simon & Agnolucci, Paolo & Ekins, Paul, 2008. "The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios--Part II: Scenarios for a 60% CO2 reduction in the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3764-3773, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:10:p:3764-3773

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Bows, Alice & Anderson, Kevin L., 2007. "Policy clash: Can projected aviation growth be reconciled with the UK Government's 60% carbon-reduction target?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 103-110, March.
    2. Unruh, Gregory C., 2000. "Understanding carbon lock-in," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 817-830, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Markus J. Milne & Suzana Grubnic, 2011. "Climate change accounting research: keeping it interesting and different," Accounting, Auditing & Accountability Journal, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 24(8), pages 948-977, October.
    2. Mattila, Tuomas & Antikainen, Riina, 2011. "Backcasting sustainable freight transport systems for Europe in 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1241-1248, March.
    3. Dagoumas, [alpha].S. & Barker, T.S., 2010. "Pathways to a low-carbon economy for the UK with the macro-econometric E3MG model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 3067-3077, June.
    4. Scott, James A. & Ho, William & Dey, Prasanta K., 2012. "A review of multi-criteria decision-making methods for bioenergy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 146-156.
    5. Trutnevyte, Evelina & Barton, John & O'Grady, Áine & Ogunkunle, Damiete & Pudjianto, Danny & Robertson, Elizabeth, 2014. "Linking a storyline with multiple models: A cross-scale study of the UK power system transition," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 26-42.
    6. repec:eee:appene:v:205:y:2017:i:c:p:644-653 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Welfle, Andrew & Gilbert, Paul & Thornley, Patricia, 2014. "Securing a bioenergy future without imports," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-14.
    8. Carney, Sebastian & Shackley, Simon, 2009. "The greenhouse gas regional inventory project (GRIP): Designing and employing a regional greenhouse gas measurement tool for stakeholder use," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4293-4302, November.
    9. Smith, Inga J. & Rodger, Craig J., 2009. "Carbon emission offsets for aviation-generated emissions due to international travel to and from New Zealand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3438-3447, September.
    10. Zafirakis, Dimitrios & Chalvatzis, Konstantinos J. & Baiocchi, Giovanni & Daskalakis, Georgios, 2016. "The value of arbitrage for energy storage: Evidence from European electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 971-986.
    11. Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang & Buchgeister, Jens & Hauser, Wolfgang & Kosow, Hannah & Naegler, Tobias & Poganietz, Witold-Roger & Pregger, Thomas & Prehofer, Sigrid & von Recklinghausen, Andreas & Schippl, , 2016. "Context scenarios and their usage for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 956-970.
    12. Gomi, Kei & Shimada, Kouji & Matsuoka, Yuzuru, 2010. "A low-carbon scenario creation method for a local-scale economy and its application in Kyoto city," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 4783-4796, September.

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