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The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios--Part I: Development of a backcasting methodology with stakeholder participation

Listed author(s):
  • Mander, Sarah. L.
  • Bows, Alice
  • Anderson, Kevin. L.
  • Shackley, Simon
  • Agnolucci, Paolo
  • Ekins, Paul
Registered author(s):

    The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios project has outlined alternative pathways whereby a 60% reduction in CO2 emissions from 1990 levels by 2050, a goal adopted by the UK Government, can be achieved. This paper, Part I of a two part paper, describes the methodology used to develop the scenarios and outlines the motivations for the project. The study utilised a backcasting approach, applied in three phases. In phase one, a set of credible and consistent end-points that described a substantially decarbonised energy system in 2050 were generated and reviewed by stakeholders. In phase two, pathways were developed to achieve the transition to the desired end-point. The impacts of the scenarios were assessed in phase three, by means of a deliberative multi-criteria assessment framework. The scenarios to emerge from this process are elaborated in Part II, and conclusions drawn in relation to the feasibility of achieving the 60% target.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301-4215(08)00285-1
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 36 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 10 (October)
    Pages: 3754-3763

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:10:p:3754-3763
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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    1. Robinson, John Bridger, 1982. "Energy backcasting A proposed method of policy analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 337-344, December.
    2. Nick Eyre, 2001. "Carbon reduction in the real world: how the UK will surpass its Kyoto obligations," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 309-326, September.
    3. Bows, Alice & Anderson, Kevin L., 2007. "Policy clash: Can projected aviation growth be reconciled with the UK Government's 60% carbon-reduction target?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 103-110, March.
    4. McDowall, William & Eames, Malcolm, 2006. "Forecasts, scenarios, visions, backcasts and roadmaps to the hydrogen economy: A review of the hydrogen futures literature," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1236-1250, July.
    5. Hennicke, P., 2004. "Scenarios for a robust policy mix: the final report of the German study commission on sustainable energy supply," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(15), pages 1673-1678, October.
    6. Johnston, D. & Lowe, R. & Bell, M., 2005. "An exploration of the technical feasibility of achieving CO2 emission reductions in excess of 60% within the UK housing stock by the year 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(13), pages 1643-1659, September.
    7. Tight, M.R. & Bristow, A.L. & Pridmore, A. & May, A.D., 2005. "What is a sustainable level of CO2 emissions from transport activity in the UK in 2050?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 235-244, May.
    8. Unruh, Gregory C., 2000. "Understanding carbon lock-in," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 817-830, October.
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