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The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios--Part I: Development of a backcasting methodology with stakeholder participation

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  • Mander, Sarah. L.
  • Bows, Alice
  • Anderson, Kevin. L.
  • Shackley, Simon
  • Agnolucci, Paolo
  • Ekins, Paul

Abstract

The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios project has outlined alternative pathways whereby a 60% reduction in CO2 emissions from 1990 levels by 2050, a goal adopted by the UK Government, can be achieved. This paper, Part I of a two part paper, describes the methodology used to develop the scenarios and outlines the motivations for the project. The study utilised a backcasting approach, applied in three phases. In phase one, a set of credible and consistent end-points that described a substantially decarbonised energy system in 2050 were generated and reviewed by stakeholders. In phase two, pathways were developed to achieve the transition to the desired end-point. The impacts of the scenarios were assessed in phase three, by means of a deliberative multi-criteria assessment framework. The scenarios to emerge from this process are elaborated in Part II, and conclusions drawn in relation to the feasibility of achieving the 60% target.

Suggested Citation

  • Mander, Sarah. L. & Bows, Alice & Anderson, Kevin. L. & Shackley, Simon & Agnolucci, Paolo & Ekins, Paul, 2008. "The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios--Part I: Development of a backcasting methodology with stakeholder participation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3754-3763, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:10:p:3754-3763
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mattila, Tuomas & Antikainen, Riina, 2011. "Backcasting sustainable freight transport systems for Europe in 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1241-1248, March.
    2. O' Mahony, Tadhg & Zhou, P. & Sweeney, John, 2013. "Integrated scenarios of energy-related CO2 emissions in Ireland: A multi-sectoral analysis to 2020," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 385-397.
    3. repec:eee:appene:v:205:y:2017:i:c:p:644-653 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang & Buchgeister, Jens & Hauser, Wolfgang & Kosow, Hannah & Naegler, Tobias & Poganietz, Witold-Roger & Pregger, Thomas & Prehofer, Sigrid & von Recklinghausen, Andreas & Schippl, , 2016. "Context scenarios and their usage for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 956-970.
    5. Gomi, Kei & Shimada, Kouji & Matsuoka, Yuzuru, 2010. "A low-carbon scenario creation method for a local-scale economy and its application in Kyoto city," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 4783-4796, September.
    6. Mattila, Tuomas & Koskela, Sirkka & Seppälä, Jyri & Mäenpää, Ilmo, 2013. "Sensitivity analysis of environmentally extended input–output models as a tool for building scenarios of sustainable development," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 148-155.
    7. Wang, Mingwei & Che, Yue & Yang, Kai & Wang, Min & Xiong, Lijun & Huang, Yuchi, 2011. "A local-scale low-carbon plan based on the STIRPAT model and the scenario method: The case of Minhang District, Shanghai, China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6981-6990.
    8. repec:eee:tefoso:v:124:y:2017:i:c:p:114-125 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Hammond, Geoff & O'Grady, Áine, 2013. "The Implications of Upstream Emissions from the Power Sector," Realising Transition Pathways 44209, Realising Transition Pathways, University of Bath.
    10. repec:eee:forpol:v:85:y:2017:i:p2:p:269-282 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Scott, James A. & Ho, William & Dey, Prasanta K., 2012. "A review of multi-criteria decision-making methods for bioenergy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 146-156.
    12. Trutnevyte, Evelina & Barton, John & O'Grady, Áine & Ogunkunle, Damiete & Pudjianto, Danny & Robertson, Elizabeth, 2014. "Linking a storyline with multiple models: A cross-scale study of the UK power system transition," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 26-42.
    13. Welfle, Andrew & Gilbert, Paul & Thornley, Patricia, 2014. "Securing a bioenergy future without imports," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-14.
    14. Carney, Sebastian & Shackley, Simon, 2009. "The greenhouse gas regional inventory project (GRIP): Designing and employing a regional greenhouse gas measurement tool for stakeholder use," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4293-4302, November.

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    Energy scenarios Backcasting UK;

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