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Transportation carbon emission structural lock-in and subsidy mechanism design in the “Belt and Road Initiative”

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  • Cheng, Zhaolin
  • Li, Yanli
  • Zhao, Laijun
  • Zeng, Mengjia
  • Shi, Zhen
  • Wen, Fashuai

Abstract

To explore the carbon lock-in problem caused by the transportation structure in “Belt and Road Initiative”, an interactive analytical framework was designed for flows between shippers and carriers based on an extended Hotelling model. The analysis revealed that the interaction between shippers and carriers leads to a market equilibrium for the entire transportation system, and the equilibrium's stability will lead to lock-in of the transportation structure, leading to a “carbon lock-in” for the transportation system. The price elasticity of carbon emission was to measure the effects of transportation costs on the development of carbon emission structural lock-in. Trade between China and Germany was used to conduct an empirical analysis of data from 337 Chinese prefecture-level and above cities to explore the factors affecting the transport carbon emission structural lock-in. Finally, by using a dual-objective integer programming model, thereby showed how a subsidy program could effectively reduce transportation carbon emission.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheng, Zhaolin & Li, Yanli & Zhao, Laijun & Zeng, Mengjia & Shi, Zhen & Wen, Fashuai, 2025. "Transportation carbon emission structural lock-in and subsidy mechanism design in the “Belt and Road Initiative”," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 424-442.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:162:y:2025:i:c:p:424-442
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.12.020
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