IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v199y2025ics0301421525000291.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Can new energy demonstration cities break through the multiple carbon lock-in? Evidence based on double machine learning

Author

Listed:
  • Hu, Zheng
  • Xu, Yingzhi

Abstract

The “carbon lock-in (CLI)” dilemma poses a serious challenge for nations globally in pursuing sustainable development. The new energy demonstration city pilot policy (NEDCPP), as an important carrier for energy transformation, provides new momentum and direction for China to achieve “dual carbon” goals. The objective assessment of the carbon unlocking effect of this policy is of significant practical importance in achieving a harmonious progression between economic development and pollution reduction. This paper employs a double machine learning model to examine the influence of NEDCPP on urban CLI. The results show that: (1) The NEDCPP has markedly mitigated urban CLI, and this finding passes a series of robustness tests. (2) The causal mediation effect indicates that the NEDCPP suppresses the urban CLI through technological progress, institutional leadership, and social transformation. (3) It has a better CLI inhibitory effect on non-resource-based, small to medium-sized, key environmental protection, and new energy high-demand cities. (4) It breaks through the limitations of geography and administrative divisions, and plays a pivotal role in bridging the disparities in CLI across regions. This research offers empirical support for the global practice of NEDCPP, and expedite the response to global climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Hu, Zheng & Xu, Yingzhi, 2025. "Can new energy demonstration cities break through the multiple carbon lock-in? Evidence based on double machine learning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:199:y:2025:i:c:s0301421525000291
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114522
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421525000291
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114522?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang, Zhenwei & Wang, Chengfu & Wu, Qiuwei & Dong, Xiaoming, 2024. "Optimal dispatch for cross-regional integrated energy system with renewable energy uncertainties: A unified spatial-temporal cooperative framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    2. Liu, Xiaoqian & Wang, Chang'an & Wu, Haitao & Yang, Cunyi & Albitar, Khaldoon, 2023. "The impact of the new energy demonstration city construction on energy consumption intensity: Exploring the sustainable potential of China's firms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    3. Haoqi, Qian & Libo, Wu & Weiqi, Tang, 2017. "“Lock-in” effect of emission standard and its impact on the choice of market based instruments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 41-50.
    4. Fan, Jing-Li & Xu, Mao & Li, Fengyu & Yang, Lin & Zhang, Xian, 2018. "Carbon capture and storage (CCS) retrofit potential of coal-fired power plants in China: The technology lock-in and cost optimization perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C), pages 326-334.
    5. Unruh, Gregory C. & Carrillo-Hermosilla, Javier, 2006. "Globalizing carbon lock-in," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1185-1197, July.
    6. Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Mert Demirer & Esther Duflo & Christian Hansen & Whitney Newey & James Robins, 2018. "Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 21(1), pages 1-68, February.
    7. Unruh, Gregory C., 2002. "Escaping carbon lock-in," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 317-325, March.
    8. Jin, Wei, 2021. "Path dependence, self-fulfilling expectations, and carbon lock-in," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    9. Xie, Rui & Hu, Guangxiao & Zhang, Youguo & Liu, Yu, 2017. "Provincial transfers of enabled carbon emissions in China: A supply-side perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 688-697.
    10. Yuan Feng & Changfei Nie, 2022. "Re-examining the effect of China’s new-energy demonstration cities construction policy on environmental pollution: a perspective of pollutant emission intensity control," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 65(12), pages 2333-2361, October.
    11. Cheng, Zhonghua & Yu, Xuejin & Zhang, Yi, 2023. "Is the construction of new energy demonstration cities conducive to improvements in energy efficiency?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PA).
    12. Helmut Farbmacher & Martin Huber & Lukáš Lafférs & Henrika Langen & Martin Spindler, 2022. "Causal mediation analysis with double machine learning [Mediation analysis via potential outcomes models]," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(2), pages 277-300.
    13. Mattauch, Linus & Creutzig, Felix & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2015. "Avoiding carbon lock-in: Policy options for advancing structural change," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 49-63.
    14. Chai, Jian & Tian, Lingyue & Jia, Ruining, 2023. "New energy demonstration city, spatial spillover and carbon emission efficiency: Evidence from China's quasi-natural experiment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    15. Zhuo, Chong & Luo, Kang & Song, Yaning & Dai, Ling & Liu, Yaobin, 2024. "Regional coordinated development and green transformation: Evidence from major national strategic zones," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1290-1307.
    16. Pia Buschmann & Angela Oels, 2019. "The overlooked role of discourse in breaking carbon lock‐in: The case of the German energy transition," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(3), May.
    17. Zhou, Fengxiu & Wang, Xiaoyu, 2022. "The carbon emissions trading scheme and green technology innovation in China: A new structural economics perspective," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 365-381.
    18. Xie, Ronghui & Teo, Thompson S.H., 2022. "Green technology innovation, environmental externality, and the cleaner upgrading of industrial structure in China — Considering the moderating effect of environmental regulation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    19. Hou, Yaru & Yang, Mian & Ma, Yanran & Zhang, Haiying, 2024. "Study on city's energy transition: Evidence from the establishment of the new energy demonstration cities in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    20. Li, Jiaman & Dong, Kangyin & Wang, Kun & Dong, Xiucheng, 2023. "How does natural resource dependence influence carbon emissions? The role of environmental regulation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    21. Dong, Kangyin & Jiang, Qingzhe & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Zhao, Jun, 2021. "Does low-carbon energy transition mitigate energy poverty? The case of natural gas for China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    22. Zaman, Khalid & Moemen, Mitwali Abd-el., 2017. "Energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions and economic development: Evaluating alternative and plausible environmental hypothesis for sustainable growth," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1119-1130.
    23. Yuan, Zhen & Xu, Jie & Li, Bing & Yao, Tingting, 2022. "Limits of technological progress in controlling energy consumption: Evidence from the energy rebound effects across China's industrial sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    24. Li, Kai & Tan, Xiujie & Yan, Yaxue & Jiang, Dalin & Qi, Shaozhou, 2022. "Directing energy transition toward decarbonization: The China story," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PA).
    25. Wang, Qiao & Yi, Hongtao, 2021. "New energy demonstration program and China's urban green economic growth: Do regional characteristics make a difference?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    26. Yang, Lisha & Li, Zhi, 2017. "Technology advance and the carbon dioxide emission in China – Empirical research based on the rebound effect," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 150-161.
    27. Dana R. Fisher & Philip Leifeld, 2019. "The polycentricity of climate policy blockage," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(4), pages 469-487, August.
    28. Axel Michaelowa & Katharina Michaelowa, 2015. "Do rapidly developing countries take up new responsibilities for climate change mitigation?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 499-510, December.
    29. Yang, Jui-Chung & Chuang, Hui-Ching & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 2020. "Double machine learning with gradient boosting and its application to the Big N audit quality effect," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 216(1), pages 268-283.
    30. Bertram, Christoph & Johnson, Nils & Luderer, Gunnar & Riahi, Keywan & Isaac, Morna & Eom, Jiyong, 2015. "Carbon lock-in through capital stock inertia associated with weak near-term climate policies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 62-72.
    31. Zhao, Feifei & Hu, Zheng & Yi, Ping & Zhao, Xu, 2024. "Does environmental decentralization improve industrial ecology? Evidence from China's Yangtze River Economic Belt," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1250-1270.
    32. Liu, Xiaoqian & Cifuentes-Faura, Javier & Zhao, Shikuan & Wang, Long, 2023. "Government environmental attention and carbon emissions governance: Firm-level evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 121-142.
    33. Lingyun Mi & Yuhuan Sun & Lijie Qiao & Tianwen Jia & Yang Yang & Tao Lv, 2021. "Analysis of the Cause of Household Carbon Lock-In for Chinese Urban Households," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-16, February.
    34. Xia Wang & Lijun Zhang & Yaochen Qin & Jingfei Zhang, 2020. "Analysis of China’s Manufacturing Industry Carbon Lock-In and Its Influencing Factors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-15, February.
    35. Unruh, Gregory C., 2000. "Understanding carbon lock-in," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 817-830, October.
    36. Patrick Arthur Driscoll, 2014. "Breaking Carbon Lock-In: Path Dependencies in Large-Scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects," Planning Practice & Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 317-330, June.
    37. Chen, Xu & Li, Zhongshu & Gallagher, Kevin P. & Mauzerall, Denise L., 2021. "Financing carbon lock-in in developing countries: Bilateral financing for power generation technologies from China, Japan, and the United States," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    38. Yijing Wang & Rong Wang & Katsumasa Tanaka & Philippe Ciais & Josep Penuelas & Yves Balkanski & Jordi Sardans & Didier Hauglustaine & Wang Liu & Xiaofan Xing & Jiarong Li & Siqing Xu & Yuankang Xiong , 2023. "Accelerating the energy transition towards photovoltaic and wind in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 619(7971), pages 761-767, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Peng Chen & Zaijun Li & Meijuan Hu, 2025. "Spatio-Temporal Evolution Pattern and Driving Forces of Carbon Lock-In in the Yangtze River Delta Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-23, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Weng, Shimei & Song, Malin & Tao, Weiliang & Chen, Jianbao & Chen, Hao, 2025. "Breaking the inertia of urban energy systems: Does the new energy demonstration city construction improve carbon unlocking efficiency?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    2. Zhao, Congyu & Dong, Kangyin & Jiang, Hong-Dian & Wang, Kun & Dong, Xiucheng, 2023. "How does energy poverty eradication realize the path to carbon unlocking? The case of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    3. Zhao, Congyu & Wang, Jianda & Dong, Kangyin & Wang, Kun, 2023. "How does renewable energy encourage carbon unlocking? A global case for decarbonization," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    4. Zhao, Congyu & Dong, Kangyin & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2024. "Carbon lock-in endgame: Can energy trilemma eradication contribute to decarbonization?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    5. Dong, Kangyin & Jia, Rongwen & Zhao, Congyu & Wang, Kun, 2023. "Can smart transportation inhibit carbon lock-in? The case of China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 59-69.
    6. Liu, Jiamin & Zhang, Jiaoning & Ma, Xiaoyu & Zhao, Bin & Zhang, Mengyu, 2024. "The road to sustainable development: Can the new energy demonstration city policy promote the industrial structure transformation?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(PB).
    7. Xiong, Zhiqiao & Hu, Jin & Li, Wenfeng, 2024. "From policy to practice: Enhancing enterprise productivity through energy transition initiatives," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    8. Chen, Hongfei & Niu, Dongxiao & Gao, Yibo, 2025. "Research on the impact of energy transition policies on green total factor productivity of Chinese high-energy-consuming enterprises," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 319(C).
    9. Hou, Yaru & Yang, Mian & Ma, Yanran & Zhang, Haiying, 2024. "Study on city's energy transition: Evidence from the establishment of the new energy demonstration cities in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    10. Liu, Xiaoqian & Wang, Chang'an & Wu, Haitao & Yang, Cunyi & Albitar, Khaldoon, 2023. "The impact of the new energy demonstration city construction on energy consumption intensity: Exploring the sustainable potential of China's firms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    11. Yang, Jiayu & Wang, Jianlong & Wang, Weilong & Wu, Haitao, 2024. "Exploring the path to promote energy revolution: Assessing the impact of new energy demonstration city construction on urban energy transition in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    12. Peng Chen & Zaijun Li & Meijuan Hu, 2025. "Spatio-Temporal Evolution Pattern and Driving Forces of Carbon Lock-In in the Yangtze River Delta Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-23, June.
    13. Song, Yang & Pang, Xiaoqian & Zhang, Zhiyuan & Sahut, Jean-Michel, 2024. "Can the new energy demonstration city policy promote corporate green innovation capability?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    14. Yun Chen & Da Wang & Wenxi Zhu & Yunfei Hou & Dingli Liu & Chongsen Ma & Tian Li & Yuan Yuan, 2023. "Effective Conditions for Achieving Carbon Unlocking Targets for Transport Infrastructure Development—Joint Analysis Based on PLS-SEM and NCA," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-22, January.
    15. Zou, Tong & Li, Fanrong & Guo, Pibin, 2024. "Advancing effective energy transition: The effects and mechanisms of China's dual-pilot energy policies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    16. Guo, Bingnan & Feng, Yu & Lin, Ji & Wang, Xu, 2024. "New energy demonstration city and urban pollutant emissions: An analysis based on a spatial difference-in-differences model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 287-298.
    17. Cheng, Zhaolin & Li, Yanli & Zhao, Laijun & Zeng, Mengjia & Shi, Zhen & Wen, Fashuai, 2025. "Transportation carbon emission structural lock-in and subsidy mechanism design in the “Belt and Road Initiative”," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 424-442.
    18. Zhang, Zhenhua & Li, Peixuan & Wang, Xinyi & Ran, Rong & Wu, Wenshuai, 2024. "New energy policy and new quality productive forces: A quasi-natural experiment based on demonstration cities," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 1670-1688.
    19. Floater, Graham & Rode, Philipp & Robert, Alexis & Kennedy, Chris & Hoornweg, Dan & Slavcheva, Roxana & Godfrey, Nick, 2014. "Cities and the New Climate Economy: the transformative role of global urban growth," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 60775, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Sen, Suphi & von Schickfus, Marie-Theres, 2020. "Climate policy, stranded assets, and investors’ expectations," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:199:y:2025:i:c:s0301421525000291. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.