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Causal mediation analysis with double machine learning

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Abstract

This paper combines causal mediation analysis with double machine learning to control for observed confounders in a data-driven way under a selection-on-observables assumption in a high-dimensional setting. We consider the average indirect effect of a binary treatment operating through an intermediate variable (or mediator) on the causal path between the treatment and the outcome, as well as the unmediated direct effect. Estimation is based on efficient score functions, which possess a multiple robustness property w.r.t. misspecifications of the outcome, mediator, and treatment models. This property is key for selecting these models by double machine learning, which is combined with data splitting to prevent overfitting in the estimation of the effects of interest. We demonstrate that the direct and indirect effect estimators are asymptotically normal and root-n consistent under specific regularity conditions and investigate the finite sample properties of the suggested methods in a simulation study when considering lasso as machine learner. We also provide an empirical application to the U.S. National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, assessing the indirect effect of health insurance coverage on general health operating via routine checkups as mediator, as well as the direct effect. We find a moderate short term effect of health insurance coverage on general health which is, however, not mediated by routine checkups.

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  • Farbmacher, Helmut & Huber, Martin & Langen, Henrika & Spindler, Martin, 2020. "Causal mediation analysis with double machine learning," FSES Working Papers 515, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
    • Handle: RePEc:fri:fribow:fribow00515
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    Cited by:

    1. AmirEmad Ghassami & Andrew Ying & Ilya Shpitser & Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen, 2021. "Minimax Kernel Machine Learning for a Class of Doubly Robust Functionals with Application to Proximal Causal Inference," Papers 2104.02929, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    2. Helena Chuliá & Sabuhi Khalili & Jorge M. Uribe, 2024. "Monitoring time-varying systemic risk in sovereign debt and currency markets with generative AI," IREA Working Papers 202402, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2024.
    3. Hugo Bodory & Martin Huber & Lukáš Lafférs, 2022. "Evaluating (weighted) dynamic treatment effects by double machine learning [Identification of causal effects using instrumental variables]," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(3), pages 628-648.
    4. Victor Chernozhukov & Whitney K. Newey & Rahul Singh, 2022. "Automatic Debiased Machine Learning of Causal and Structural Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(3), pages 967-1027, May.
    5. Nora Bearth & Michael Lechner, 2024. "Causal Machine Learning for Moderation Effects," Papers 2401.08290, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    6. Xinyu Wei & Mingwang Cheng & Kaifeng Duan & Xiangxing Kong, 2024. "Effects of Big Data on PM 2.5 : A Study Based on Double Machine Learning," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-21, March.
    7. Rahul Singh & Liyuan Xu & Arthur Gretton, 2021. "Sequential Kernel Embedding for Mediated and Time-Varying Dose Response Curves," Papers 2111.03950, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    8. Rahul Singh & Liyuan Xu & Arthur Gretton, 2020. "Kernel Methods for Causal Functions: Dose, Heterogeneous, and Incremental Response Curves," Papers 2010.04855, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    9. Michael Lechner, 2023. "Causal Machine Learning and its use for public policy," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 159(1), pages 1-15, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mediation; direct and indirect effects; causal mechanisms; double machine learning; effcient score;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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