Directing energy transition toward decarbonization: The China story

Addressing major challenges such as climate change and carbon neutrality requires a transition to new low-carbon energy carriers and improvements in energy efficiency. The majority of previous studies adopted a one-directional approach to examine the factors affecting energy transitions and did not quantitatively estimate the driving effects of different factors on low-carbon energy transition from the two perspectives of energy mix and energy efficiency. This study aimed to explore which mechanisms can effectively drive the low-carbon energy transition under the current setting and what cross-cutting insights might be gained from energy transition dynamics observed in a large and emerging economy such as China. After employing Baron and Kenny's three-step procedure to identify the mediating effects, we found that policy factors constitute the main forces behind the transition of the energy structure toward natural gas, and that technical knowledge stock mediates the impact of both energy-saving goals and new energy subsidy policies on energy intensity. Furthermore, under the pressure of energy-saving target assessment, local governments have adopted a “campaign-style” energy-saving approach. Moreover, state-owned capital may assume greater importance in the advancement of energy transition relative to other ownership types. Finally, this study put forward several policy implications, including the need to promote long-term mechanisms, low-carbon technologies, and renewable energy.