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Assessment of emissions scenarios revisited


  • Nebojsa Nakicenovic
  • Peter Kolp
  • Keywan Riahi
  • Mikiko Kainuma
  • Tatsuya Hanaoka


This article assesses emissions scenarios in the literature, originally documented in the scenario database that was developed more than 7 years ago. The original scenario assessment and literature review has been used, among other things, as the basis for the quantification of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) reference scenarios and the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) stabilization scenarios. In the meantime, a large number of new emissions scenarios have been developed and published. We have collected the relevant information about these new scenarios with the objective to assess the more recent perspectives about future global emissions and to assess the changes in the perspectives about future emissions and their driving forces that may have occurred since the publication of SRES and TAR scenarios. Our analysis goes beyond mere comparisons of emissions ranges. In particular, we explore the underlying drivers of emissions using the so-called IPAT identity (Impacts are proportional to the product of Population, Affluence, and Technology). When IPAT analysis refers to carbon emissions it is called the Kaya identity, where carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions are assumed to correspond to the product of population, per capita income, energy intensity of gross domestic product (GDP), and CO 2 intensity of energy. Comparing the recent scenario literature with the scenarios developed before TAR shows that there are strong similarities for the main underlying tendencies in many of the scenario’s driving forces and results. Copyright Springer Japan 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Nebojsa Nakicenovic & Peter Kolp & Keywan Riahi & Mikiko Kainuma & Tatsuya Hanaoka, 2006. "Assessment of emissions scenarios revisited," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 7(3), pages 137-173, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:envpol:v:7:y:2006:i:3:p:137-173
    DOI: 10.1007/BF03353998

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. John Reilly, Marcus Sarofim, Sergey Paltsev and Ronald Prinn, 2006. "The Role of Non-CO2 GHGs in Climate Policy: Analysis Using the MIT IGSM," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 503-520.
    2. John P. Weyant, 1993. "Costs of Reducing Global Carbon Emissions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 27-46, Fall.
    3. Ottmar Edenhofer, Kai Lessmann, Claudia Kemfert, Michael Grubb and Jonathan Kohler, 2006. "Induced Technological Change: Exploring its Implications for the Economics of Atmospheric Stabilization: Synthesis Report from the Innovation Modeling Comparison Project," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 57-108.
    4. Claudia Kemfert, Truong P. Truong, and Thomas Bruckner, 2006. "Economic Impact Assessment of Climate Change - A Multi-gas Investigation with WIAGEM-GTAPEL-ICM," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 441-460.
    5. Alan Manne & Richard Richels, 1995. "The Greenhouse Debate: Econonmic Efficiency, Burden Sharing and Hedging Strategies," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-38.
    6. Peck, Stephen C & Teisberg, Thomas J, 1995. "International CO2 emissions control : An analysis using CETA," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4-5), pages 297-308.
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    Cited by:

    1. Obi, Okey Francis, 2015. "Evaluation of the effect of palm oil mill sludge on the properties of sawdust briquette," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1749-1758.
    2. Riahi, Keywan & Kriegler, Elmar & Johnson, Nils & Bertram, Christoph & den Elzen, Michel & Eom, Jiyong & Schaeffer, Michiel & Edmonds, Jae & Isaac, Morna & Krey, Volker & Longden, Thomas & Luderer, Gu, 2015. "Locked into Copenhagen pledges — Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 8-23.
    3. repec:taf:oaefxx:v:4:y:2016:i:1:p:1239672 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Stehfest, Elke & den Elzen, Michel G.J. & van Vliet, Jasper & Isaac, Morna, 2010. "Exploring IMAGE model scenarios that keep greenhouse gas radiative forcing below 3 W/m2 in 2100," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1105-1120, September.
    5. Cranston, G.R. & Hammond, G.P., 2010. "North and south: Regional footprints on the transition pathway towards a low carbon, global economy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(9), pages 2945-2951, September.


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