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Comparison of top-down and bottom-up estimates of sectoral and regional greenhouse gas emission reduction potentials

  • van Vuuren, Detlef P.
  • Hoogwijk, Monique
  • Barker, Terry
  • Riahi, Keywan
  • Boeters, Stefan
  • Chateau, Jean
  • Scrieciu, Serban
  • van Vliet, Jasper
  • Masui, Toshihiko
  • Blok, Kornelis
  • Blomen, Eliane
  • Kram, Tom

The Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC reports that greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by about 30-50% in 2030 at costs below 100 US$/tCO2 based on an assessment of both bottom-up and top-down studies. Here, we have looked in more detail into the outcomes of specific models and also analyzed the economic potentials at the sectoral and regional level. At the aggregated level, the findings of the IPCC report are confirmed. However, substantial differences are found at the sectoral level. At the same time, there seems to be no systematic difference in the reduction potential reported by top-down and bottom-up approaches. The largest reduction potential as a response to carbon prices exists in the energy supply sector. Reduction potential in the building sector may carry relatively low costs. Although uncertainties are considerable, the modeling results and the bottom-up analyses all suggest that at the global level around 50% of greenhouse gas emissions may be reduced at carbon price (costs) below 100$/tCO2-eq--but with a wide range of 30-60%. At a carbon price (costs) less than 20$/tCO2-eq, still 10-35% of emissions may be abated. The variation of results is higher at low carbon-price levels than at high levels.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

Volume (Year): 37 (2009)
Issue (Month): 12 (December)
Pages: 5125-5139

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Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:12:p:5125-5139
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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  1. van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Weyant, John & de la Chesnaye, Francisco, 2006. "Multi-gas scenarios to stabilize radiative forcing," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 102-120, January.
  2. Loschel, Andreas, 2002. "Technological change in economic models of environmental policy: a survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2-3), pages 105-126, December.
  3. Terry Barker & S. Serban Scrieciu & Tim Foxon, 2008. "Achieving the G8 50% target: modelling induced and accelerated technological change using the macro-econometric model E3MG," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(sup1), pages S30-S45, December.
  4. Jean-Marc Burniaux & Jean Château, 2008. "An Overview of the OECD ENV-Linkages Model," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 653, OECD Publishing.
  5. Terry Barker, Haoran Pan, Jonathan Kohler, Rachel Warren, and Sarah Winne, 2006. "Decarbonizing the Global Economy with Induced Technological Change: Scenarios to 2100 using E3MG," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 241-258.
  6. van Vuuren, Detlef P. & de Vries, Bert & Eickhout, Bas & Kram, Tom, 2004. "Responses to technology and taxes in a simulated world," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 579-601, July.
  7. van Ruijven, Bas & Urban, Frauke & Benders, René M.J. & Moll, Henri C. & van der Sluijs, Jeroen P. & de Vries, Bert & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2008. "Modeling Energy and Development: An Evaluation of Models and Concepts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 2801-2821, December.
  8. Shilpa Rao and Keywan Riahi, 2006. "The Role of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases in Climate Change Mitigation: Long-term Scenarios for the 21st Century," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 177-200.
  9. Arjan Lejour & Paul Veenendaal & Gerard Verweij & Nico van Leeuwen, 2006. "Worldscan; a model for international economic policy analysis," CPB Document 111, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  10. Jean-Charles Hourcade, Mark Jaccard, Chris Bataille, and Frederic Ghersi , 2006. "Hybrid Modeling: New Answers to Old Challenges Introduction to the Special Issue of The Energy Journal," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 1-12.
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