Hybrid modelling of long-term carbon reduction scenarios for the UK
This paper summarizes the development of a new hybrid MARKAL-Macro (M-M) energy system model for the UK. This hybrid model maintains the technological and sectoral detail of a bottom-up optimisation approach with aggregated energy demand endogeneity and GDP impacts from a single sector neoclassical growth model. The UK M-M model was developed for underpinning analysis of the UK's groundbreaking mandatory long-term - 60% carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reduction target. Hybrid modelling illustrates that long-term UK CO2 emission reductions are feasible. However, there are endemic uncertainties, notably a trade-off between behavioural and technological decarbonisation options with resultant energy system impacts in the requirements for zero-carbon electricity. UK M-M model sensitivity runs further illustrate the range of energy system interactions including the deployment of the UK's limited CO2 storage capacity, alternate timing of power vs. transport sectoral reductions, the relative ease of switching between electricity generation portfolios, and substitution opportunities between natural gas and coal. The macro-economic cost impacts range from 0.3% to 1.5% reduction in UK GDP by 2050, with higher cost estimates strongly influenced by pessimistic assessments of future low-carbon technologies. However cost impacts from the UK M-M model are likely to be in the lower range for stringent CO2 reduction pathways as the simplicity of the reduced form macro-linkage omits competitiveness and transitional impacts on the UK economy.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chen, Wenying & Wu, Zongxin & He, Jiankun & Gao, Pengfei & Xu, Shaofeng, 2007. "Carbon emission control strategies for China: A comparative study with partial and general equilibrium versions of the China MARKAL model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 59-72.
- Rutherford, Thomas F., 1995. "Extension of GAMS for complementarity problems arising in applied economic analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1299-1324, November.
- David Pearce, 2003. "The Social Cost of Carbon and its Policy Implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 362-384.
- Valentina Bosetti & Carlo Carraro & Marzio Galeotti & Emanuele Massetti & Massimo Tavoni, 2006. "WITCH. A World Induced Technical Change Hybrid Model," Working Papers 2006_46, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Leonardo Barreto, Socrates Kypreos, 2002. "Multi-regional technological learning in the energysystems MARKAL model," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 17(3), pages 189-213.
- van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Weyant, John & de la Chesnaye, Francisco, 2006. "Multi-gas scenarios to stabilize radiative forcing," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 102-120, January.
- Contaldi, Mario & Gracceva, Francesco & Tosato, Giancarlo, 2007. "Evaluation of green-certificates policies using the MARKAL-MACRO-Italy model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 797-808, February.
- Unger, Thomas & Ahlgren, Erik O., 2005. "Impacts of a common green certificate market on electricity and CO2-emission markets in the Nordic countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(16), pages 2152-2163, November.
- Jean Charles Hourcade & Mark Jaccard & Chris Bataille & Frédéric Ghersi, 2006. "Hybrid Modeling: New Answers to Old Challenges," Post-Print halshs-00471234, HAL.
- Bohringer, Christoph & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2008. "Combining bottom-up and top-down," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 574-596, March.
- Weyant, John P., 2004. "Introduction and overview," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 501-515, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:30:y:2008:i:6:p:2947-2963. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.