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Integrated technological-economic modeling platform for energy and climate policy analysis

Author

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  • Patrícia Fortes

    () (CENSE, Departamento de Ciências e Engenharia do Ambiente, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade Nova de Lisboa)

  • Alfredo Marvão Pereira

    () (Department of Economics, The College of William and Mary)

  • Rui M. Pereira

    () (Department of Economics, The College of William and Mary)

  • Júlia Seixas

    (CENSE, Departamento de Ciências e Engenharia do Ambiente, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade Nova de Lisboa)

Abstract

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) and bottom-up models each have unique strengths and weakness in evaluating energy and climate policies. This paper describes the development of an integrated technological, economic modelling platform (HYBTEP), built through the soft-link between the bottomup TIMES and the CGE GEM-E3 models. HYBTEP combines cost minimizing energy technology choices with macroeconomic responses, which is essential for energy-climate policy assessment. HYBTEP advances on other hybrid tools by assuming ‘full-form’ models, integrating detailed and extensive technology data with disaggregated economic structure, and ‘full-link’, i.e., covering all economic sectors. Using Portugal as a case study, we examine three scenarios: i) the current energyclimate policy, ii) a CO2 tax, and iii) renewable energy subsidy, with the objective of assessing the advantages of HYBTEP vis-à-vis bottom-up approach. Results show that the economic framework in HYBTEP partially offsets the increase or decrease in energy costs from the policy scenarios, while TIMES sets a wide range of results, dependent of energy services-price elasticities. HYBTEP allows the computation of the economic impacts of policies while considers technological detail. Moreover, the hybrid platform increases the transparency of policy analysis by making explicit the mechanisms through which energy demand evolves, resulting in high confidence for decision-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrícia Fortes & Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui M. Pereira & Júlia Seixas, 2014. "Integrated technological-economic modeling platform for energy and climate policy analysis," Working Papers 148, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwm:wpaper:148
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Behrens, Paul & Rodrigues, João F.D. & Brás, Tiago & Silva, Carlos, 2016. "Environmental, economic, and social impacts of feed-in tariffs: A Portuguese perspective 2000–2010," Applied Energy, Elsevier, pages 309-319.
    2. Pereira, Alfredo & Pereira, Rui, 2017. "On the Effect of an Increase in the VAT on Electricity in Portugal," MPRA Paper 77594, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bruno Merven & Channing Arndt & Harald Winkler, 2017. "The development of a linked modelling framework for analysing the socioeconomic impacts of energy and climate policies in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 040, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Yu, Biying & Tian, Yaming & Zhang, Junyi, 2015. "A dynamic active energy demand management system for evaluating the effect of policy scheme on household energy consumption behavior," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 491-506.
    5. Rahman, Md. Mizanur & Paatero, Jukka V. & Lahdelma, Risto & A. Wahid, Mazlan, 2016. "Multicriteria-based decision aiding technique for assessing energy policy elements-demonstration to a case in Bangladesh," Applied Energy, Elsevier, pages 237-244.
    6. repec:eee:energy:v:138:y:2017:i:c:p:1030-1041 is not listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    bottom-up; top-down; hybrid modeling; energy-climate policy;

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