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Cost of energy and environmental policy in Portuguese CO2 abatement--scenario analysis to 2020

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  • Simões, Sofia
  • Cleto, João
  • Fortes, Patri­cia
  • Seixas, Júlia
  • Huppes, Gjalt

Abstract

This paper quantifies the contribution of Portuguese energy policies for total and marginal abatement costs (MAC) for CO2 emissions for 2020. The TIMES_PT optimisation model was used to derive MAC curves from a set of policy scenarios including one or more of the following policies: ban on nuclear power; ban on new coal power plants without carbon sequestration and storage; incentives to natural gas power plants; and a cap on biomass use. The different MAC shows the policies' effects in the potential for CO2 abatement. In 2020, in the most encompassing policy scenario, with all current and planned policies, is possible to abate only up to +35% of 1990 emissions at a cost below 23Â [euro]Â t/CO2. In the more flexible policy scenarios, it is possible to abate up to -10% of 1990 emissions below the same cost. The total energy system costs are 10-13% higher if all policies are implemented--76 to 101Â B[euro]--roughly the equivalent to 2.01-2.65% of the 2005 GDP. Thus, from a CO2 emission mitigation perspective, the existing policies introduce significant inefficiencies, possibly related to other policy goals. The ban on nuclear power is the instrument that has the most significant effect in MAC.

Suggested Citation

  • Simões, Sofia & Cleto, João & Fortes, Patri­cia & Seixas, Júlia & Huppes, Gjalt, 2008. "Cost of energy and environmental policy in Portuguese CO2 abatement--scenario analysis to 2020," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3598-3611, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:9:p:3598-3611
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Pereira, Alfredo & Pereira, Rui, 2017. "On the Effect of an Increase in the VAT on Electricity in Portugal," MPRA Paper 77594, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Fortes, Patrícia & Pereira, Rui & Pereira, Alfredo & Seixas, Júlia, 2014. "Integrated technological-economic modeling platform for energy and climate policy analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 716-730.
    3. Pina, André & Silva, Carlos & Ferrão, Paulo, 2011. "Modeling hourly electricity dynamics for policy making in long-term scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4692-4702, September.
    4. Sgobbi, Alessandra & Simões, Sofia G. & Magagna, Davide & Nijs, Wouter, 2016. "Assessing the impacts of technology improvements on the deployment of marine energy in Europe with an energy system perspective," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 515-525.
    5. Robaina Alves, Margarita & Rodríguez, Miguel & Roseta-Palma, Catarina, 2011. "Sectoral and regional impacts of the European carbon market in Portugal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2528-2541, May.
    6. repec:eee:rensus:v:74:y:2017:i:c:p:788-799 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Fortes, Patrícia & Alvarenga, António & Seixas, Júlia & Rodrigues, Sofia, 2015. "Long-term energy scenarios: Bridging the gap between socio-economic storylines and energy modeling," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 161-178.
    8. Zhou, X. & Fan, L.W. & Zhou, P., 2015. "Marginal CO2 abatement costs: Findings from alternative shadow price estimates for Shanghai industrial sectors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 109-117.
    9. Tomaschek, Jan, 2015. "Marginal abatement cost curves for policy recommendation – A method for energy system analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 376-385.
    10. Bowen Xiao & Dongxiao Niu & Han Wu & Haichao Wang, 2017. "Marginal Abatement Cost of CO 2 in China Based on Directional Distance Function: An Industry Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, January.
    11. Gerbelová, Hana & Versteeg, Peter & Ioakimidis, Christos S. & Ferrão, Paulo, 2013. "The effect of retrofitting Portuguese fossil fuel power plants with CCS," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 280-287.
    12. Simoes, Sofia & Fortes, Patrícia & Seixas, Júlia & Huppes, Gjalt, 2015. "Assessing effects of exogenous assumptions in GHG emissions forecasts – a 2020 scenario study for Portugal using the Times energy technology model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 221-235.
    13. Assoumou, Edi & Maïzi, Nadia, 2011. "Carbon value dynamics for France: A key driver to support mitigation pledges at country scale," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4325-4336, July.
    14. Merkel, Erik & Fehrenbach, Daniel & McKenna, Russell & Fichtner, Wolf, 2014. "Modelling decentralised heat supply: An application and methodological extension in TIMES," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 592-605.
    15. Dedinec, Aleksandar & Taseska-Gjorgievska, Verica & Markovska, Natasa & Pop-Jordanov, Jordan & Kanevce, Gligor & Goldstein, Gary & Pye, Steve & Taleski, Rubin, 2016. "Low emissions development pathways of the Macedonian energy sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1202-1211.
    16. Rout, Ullash K., 2011. "Prospects of India's energy and emissions for a long time frame," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5647-5663, September.
    17. Yue, Ting & Long, Ruyin & Chen, Hong & Zhao, Xin, 2013. "The optimal CO2 emissions reduction path in Jiangsu province: An expanded IPAT approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1510-1517.
    18. Dandres, Thomas & Gaudreault, Caroline & Seco, Pablo Tirado & Samson, Réjean, 2014. "Uncertainty management in a macro life cycle assessment of a 2005–2025 European bioenergy policy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 52-61.
    19. Simoes, Sofia & Zeyringer, Marianne & Mayr, Dieter & Huld, Thomas & Nijs, Wouter & Schmidt, Johannes, 2017. "Impact of different levels of geographical disaggregation of wind and PV electricity generation in large energy system models: A case study for Austria," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 183-198.
    20. Subramanyam, Veena & Kumar, Amit & Talaei, Alireza & Mondal, Md. Alam Hossain, 2017. "Energy efficiency improvement opportunities and associated greenhouse gas abatement costs for the residential sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 795-807.
    21. Holtbrügge, Dirk & Dögl, Corinna, 2012. "How international is corporate environmental responsibility? A literature review," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 180-195.
    22. Gouveia, João Pedro & Fortes, Patrícia & Seixas, Júlia, 2012. "Projections of energy services demand for residential buildings: Insights from a bottom-up methodology," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 430-442.

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