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Low climate stabilisation under diverse growth and convergence scenarios

Author

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  • Markandya, A.
  • González-Eguino, M.
  • Criqui, P.
  • Mima, S.

Abstract

In the last decade a number of papers have analysed the consequences of achieving the greenhouse gas concentration levels necessary to maintain global temperature increases below 2°C above preindustrial levels. Most models and scenarios assume that future trends in global GDP will be similar to the growth experienced in the past century, which would imply multiplying current output by about 19 times in the 21st century. However, natural resource and environmental constraints suggest that future global economic growth may not be so high. Furthermore, the environmental implications of such growth depend on how it is distributed across countries. This paper studies the implications on GHG abatement policies of low global GDP growth and high convergence levels in GDP per capita across countries. A partial equilibrium model (POLES) of the world's energy system is used to provide detailed projections up to 2050 for the different regions of the world. The results suggest that while low stabilisation could be technically feasible and economically viable for the world in all the scenarios considered, it is more likely to occur with more modest global growth. However, that will imply higher global abatement costs relative to GDP. Convergence in living standards on the other hand places greater pressures in terms of the required reduction in emissions. In general we find that there are major differences between regions in terms of the size and the timing of abatement costs and economic impact.

Suggested Citation

  • Markandya, A. & González-Eguino, M. & Criqui, P. & Mima, S., 2014. "Low climate stabilisation under diverse growth and convergence scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 288-301.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:64:y:2014:i:c:p:288-301
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.046
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    2. Ibon Galarraga & Mikel Gonzalez-Eguino & Dirk T. G. Rübbelke, 2016. "Environmental Economics, Climate Change Policy and Beyond: A Tribute to Anil Markandya," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 63(2), pages 219-224, February.
    3. van Ruijven, Bas J. & Daenzer, Katie & Fisher-Vanden, Karen & Kober, Tom & Paltsev, Sergey & Beach, Robert H. & Calderon, Silvia Liliana & Calvin, Kate & Labriet, Maryse & Kitous, Alban & Lucena, Andr, 2016. "Baseline projections for Latin America: base-year assumptions, key drivers and greenhouse emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 499-512.
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