IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v39y2011i11p7361-7371.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploring the bargaining space within international climate negotiations based on political, economic and environmental considerations

Author

Listed:
  • Mendoza Beltran, Angelica
  • den Elzen, Michel G.J.
  • Hof, Andries F.
  • van Vuuren, Detlef P.
  • van Vliet, Jasper

Abstract

This study provides a conceptual framework for exploring the bargaining space within international climate negotiations based on important economic, political and environmental considerations. Based on it, we analyse combinations of the proposed emission reduction ranges for Annex I countries as a group (25–40% below 1990 levels) and non-Annex I as a group (15–30% below baseline) by 2020 to limit global warming to 2°C. We use results of the FAIR model with costs estimates based on two energy system models. We conclude that the range of targets that comply with a set of criteria for economic, political and environmental considerations is smaller than that by environmental considerations alone. More specifically, we find that according to our criteria, a 30% Annex I reduction target below 1990 levels, combined with a 20% non-Annex I reduction target below baseline emission levels (i.e. 20 to 30% above 2005 levels), is the only combination of targets fulfilling all our criteria for both energy system models. Otherwise, reaching the 2°C target becomes less likely, technically infeasible, or non-Annex I abatement costs are likely to exceed those of Annex I, a result, which we consider less plausible from a political viewpoint in our conceptual framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Mendoza Beltran, Angelica & den Elzen, Michel G.J. & Hof, Andries F. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & van Vliet, Jasper, 2011. "Exploring the bargaining space within international climate negotiations based on political, economic and environmental considerations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7361-7371.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:11:p:7361-7371
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.08.065
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421511006835
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.08.065?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fankhauser, Samuel & Martin, Nat, 2010. "The economics of the CDM levy: Revenue potential, tax incidence and distortionary effects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 357-363, January.
    2. Criqui, Patrick & Mima, Silvana & Viguier, Laurent, 1999. "Marginal abatement costs of CO2 emission reductions, geographical flexibility and concrete ceilings: an assessment using the POLES model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 585-601, October.
    3. Russ, Peter & Criqui, Patrick, 2007. "Post-Kyoto CO2 emission reduction: The soft landing scenario analysed with POLES and other world models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 786-796, February.
    4. Brigitte Knopf, Ottmar Edenhofer, Christian Flachsland, Marcel T. J. Kok, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Gunnar Luderer, Alexander Popp, Detlef P. van Vuuren, 2010. "Managing the Low-Carbon Transition - From Model Results to Policies," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    5. Bert Metz & Marcel Berk & Michel den Elzen & Bert de Vries & Detlef van Vuuren, 2002. "Towards an equitable global climate change regime: compatibility with Article 2 of the Climate Change Convention and the link with sustainable development," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2-3), pages 211-230, September.
    6. Peterson, Everett B. & Schleich, Joachim & Duscha, Vicki, 2011. "Environmental and economic effects of the Copenhagen pledges and more ambitious emission reduction targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3697-3708, June.
    7. Frank Jotzo & Axel Michaelowa, 2002. "Estimating the CDM market under the Marrakech Accords," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2-3), pages 179-196, September.
    8. Peter Russ & Patrick Criqui, 2007. "Post-Kyoto CO2 emission reduction : the soft landing scenario analysed with POLES and other world models," Post-Print halshs-00078489, HAL.
    9. van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Hoogwijk, Monique & Barker, Terry & Riahi, Keywan & Boeters, Stefan & Chateau, Jean & Scrieciu, Serban & van Vliet, Jasper & Masui, Toshihiko & Blok, Kornelis & Blomen, Eliane , 2009. "Comparison of top-down and bottom-up estimates of sectoral and regional greenhouse gas emission reduction potentials," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5125-5139, December.
    10. Klepper, Gernot & Peterson, Sonja, 2006. "Marginal abatement cost curves in general equilibrium: The influence of world energy prices," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-23, January.
    11. Bosetti, Valentina & Lubowski, Ruben & Golub, Alexander & Markandya, Anil, 2011. "Linking reduced deforestation and a global carbon market: implications for clean energy technology and policy flexibility," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 479-505, August.
    12. Michaelowa, Axel & Jotzo, Frank, 2005. "Transaction costs, institutional rigidities and the size of the clean development mechanism," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 511-523, March.
    13. Ottmar Edenhofer , Brigitte Knopf, Terry Barker, Lavinia Baumstark, Elie Bellevrat, Bertrand Chateau, Patrick Criqui, Morna Isaac, Alban Kitous, Socrates Kypreos, Marian Leimbach, Kai Lessmann, Bertra, 2010. "The Economics of Low Stabilization: Model Comparison of Mitigation Strategies and Costs," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    14. Detlef Vuuren & Keywan Riahi, 2011. "The relationship between short-term emissions and long-term concentration targets," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 793-801, February.
    15. Sathaye, Jayant A. & Anger, Niels, 2008. "Reducing Deforestation and Trading Emissions: Economic Implications for the post-Kyoto Carbon Market," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-016, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    16. Joeri Rogelj & Julia Nabel & Claudine Chen & William Hare & Kathleen Markmann & Malte Meinshausen & Michiel Schaeffer & Kirsten Macey & Niklas Höhne, 2010. "Copenhagen Accord pledges are paltry," Nature, Nature, vol. 464(7292), pages 1126-1128, April.
    17. van Vuuren, Detlef P. & de Vries, Bert & Eickhout, Bas & Kram, Tom, 2004. "Responses to technology and taxes in a simulated world," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 579-601, July.
    18. Rob Dellink & Gregory Briner & Christa Clapp, 2010. "Costs, Revenues, and Effectiveness of the Copenhagen Accord Emission Pledges for 2020," OECD Environment Working Papers 22, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vicki Duscha & Katja Schumacher & Joachim Schleich & Pierre Buisson, 2014. "Costs of meeting international climate targets without nuclear power," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 327-352, May.
    2. Kesicki, Fabian, 2013. "What are the key drivers of MAC curves? A partial-equilibrium modelling approach for the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 142-151.
    3. Anil Markandaya & Mikel Gonzalez-Eguino & Patrick Criqui & Silvana Mima, 2014. "Low climate stabilisation under diverse growth and convergence scenarios," Post-Print halshs-00872630, HAL.
    4. Markandya, A. & González-Eguino, M. & Criqui, P. & Mima, S., 2014. "Low climate stabilisation under diverse growth and convergence scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 288-301.
    5. Michel Elzen & Angelica Beltran & Andries Hof & Bas Ruijven & Jasper Vliet, 2013. "Reduction targets and abatement costs of developing countries resulting from global and developed countries’ reduction targets by 2050," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 491-512, April.
    6. George A. Gonzalez, 2016. "Transforming Energy: Solving Climate Change with Technology Policy . New York : Cambridge University Press . 360 pages. ISBN 9781107614970, $29.99 paperback. Anthony Patt , 2015 ," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 33(1), pages 111-113, January.
    7. A. F. Hof & M. G. J. Elzen & A. Mendoza Beltran, 2016. "The EU 40 % greenhouse gas emission reduction target by 2030 in perspective," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 375-392, June.
    8. Bollen, Johannes, 2015. "The value of air pollution co-benefits of climate policies: Analysis with a global sector-trade CGE model called WorldScan," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 178-191.
    9. Christoph Böhringer & Thomas Rutherford & Marco Springmann, 2015. "Clean-Development Investments: An Incentive-Compatible CGE Modelling Framework," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 60(4), pages 633-651, April.
    10. repec:old:wpaper:334 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Haller, Markus & Ludig, Sylvie & Bauer, Nico, 2012. "Bridging the scales: A conceptual model for coordinated expansion of renewable power generation, transmission and storage," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 2687-2695.
    12. Johansson, Daniel J. A. & Lucas, Paul L. & Weitzel, Matthias & Ahlgren, Erik O. & Bazaz, A. B. & Chen, Wenying & den Elzen, Michel G. J. & Ghosh, Joydeep & Grahn, Maria & Liang, Qiao-Mei & Peterson, S, 2012. "Multi-model analyses of the economic and energy implications for China and India in a post-Kyoto climate regime," Kiel Working Papers 1808, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. repec:zbw:hohpro:354 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. van Ruijven, Bas J. & Weitzel, Matthias & den Elzen, Michel G.J. & Hof, Andries F. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Peterson, Sonja & Narita, Daiju, 2012. "Emission allowances and mitigation costs of China and India resulting from different effort-sharing approaches," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 116-134.
    15. Mykola Gusti & Nicklas Forsell & Petr Havlik & Nikolay Khabarov & Florian Kraxner & Michael Obersteiner, 2019. "The sensitivity of the costs of reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) to future socioeconomic drivers and its implications for mitigation policy design," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(6), pages 1123-1141, August.
    16. Klaus Eisenack, 2011. "Adaptation financing as part of a global climate agreement: Is the adaptation levy appropriate?," Working Papers V-334-11, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2011.
    17. Solveig Glomsrød & Taoyuan Wei & Knut Alfsen, 2013. "Pledges for climate mitigation: the effects of the Copenhagen accord on CO 2 emissions and mitigation costs," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(5), pages 619-636, June.
    18. repec:old:wpaper:354 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Anger, Niels, 2008. "Emissions trading beyond Europe: Linking schemes in a post-Kyoto world," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 2028-2049, July.
    20. repec:zbw:hohpro:334 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Bohringer, Christoph & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Springmannc, Marco, 2013. "Clean-development investments : an incentive-compatible CGE modeling framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6720, The World Bank.
    22. Chen Shi & Yujiao Xian & Zhixin Wang & Ke Wang, 2023. "Marginal abatement cost curve of carbon emissions in China: a functional data analysis," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 1-25, February.
    23. Badau, Flavius & Färe, Rolf & Gopinath, Munisamy, 2016. "Global resilience to climate change: Examining global economic and environmental performance resulting from a global carbon dioxide market," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 46-64.
    24. Stankeviciute, Loreta & Kitous, Alban & Criqui, Patrick, 2008. "The fundamentals of the future international emissions trading system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 4272-4286, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:11:p:7361-7371. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.