IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Post-Kyoto CO2 emission reduction : the soft landing scenario analysed with POLES and other world models

  • Peter Russ

    (IPTS - Joint Research Centre - Commission européenne)

  • Patrick Criqui

    ()

    (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - CNRS : FRE2664 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II)

Registered author(s):

    Long-term outlooks are key tools for policy design in the energy sector. These outlooks should also include scenarios considering active policies that address the challenge of climate change. Consequently such a CO2 emission reduction scenario was analysed as a case study within the ACROPOLIS project. This paper presents a method to derive regional emission targets that correspond to an emission trajectory that stabilises carbon dioxide emissions by 2030, within a concentration target set at 550 ppmv. In a next step, the impact of emission reduction on the structure of the future energy system is briefly analysed using the POLESworld energy model. Finally, some key indicators are compared with the results from other world energy models used in the ACROPOLIS project to analyse the same emission reduction scenario. While the emission reduction compared to the baseline is significant, the resulting necessary adaptations in terms of energy and carbon efficiencies lie within the ranges observed in the past. It is demonstrated that the defined “soft landing” emission reduction scenario would under the assumption of emission trading produce permit prices that are not extremely high. Though forecasted effect of CO2 emission reduction on the energy system is quite different across models, the marginal reduction costsbroadly coincide across the participating models. This especially is true when taking into account the different reduction efforts caused by different levels of emissions in the baseline.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/07/84/89/PDF/PC-Russ_Post-Kyoto-EnergyPolicy2006-draft.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00078489.

    as
    in new window

    Length:
    Date of creation: Feb 2007
    Date of revision:
    Publication status: Published, Energy Policy, 2007, 35, 2, 786-796
    Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00078489
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00078489/en/
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Gusbin, Dominique & Klaassen, Ger & Kouvaritakis, Nikos, 1999. "Costs of a ceiling on Kyoto flexibility," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(14), pages 833-844, December.
    2. Odile Blanchard & Patrick Criqui & Michel Trommetter & Laurent Viguier, 2000. "Au-delà de Kyoto : enjeux d'équité et d'efficacité dans la négociation sur le changement climatique," Post-Print halshs-00196336, HAL.
    3. Criqui, Patrick & Mima, Silvana & Viguier, Laurent, 1999. "Marginal abatement costs of CO2 emission reductions, geographical flexibility and concrete ceilings: an assessment using the POLES model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 585-601, October.
    4. Böhringer, Christoph, 2001. "Climate politics from Kyoto to Bonn: from little to nothing?!?," ZEW Discussion Papers 01-49, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00078489. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.