Low Climate Stabilisation under Diverse Growth and Convergence Scenarios
In the last decade, a few papers have analysed the consequences of achieving the greenhouse gas concentration levels necessary to maintain global temperature increases below 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. Most models and scenarios assume that future trends in global GDP will be similar to the growth experienced in the past century, which would imply multiplying current output nineteen-fold in this century. However, natural resource and environmental constraints suggest that future global economic growth may not be so high. Furthermore, the environmental implications of such growth depend on how it is distributed across countries. This paper studies the implications on GHG abatement policies of different assumptions on global GDP growth and convergence levels. A partial equilibrium model (POLES) of the worldÂ´s energy system is used to provide detailed projections up to 2050 for the different regions of the world. The results suggest that while low stabilisation is technically feasible and economically viable for the world in all the scenarios considered, it is more likely to occur with more modest global growth. Convergence in living standards on the other hand places greater pressures in terms of the required reduction in emissions. In general we find that there are major differences between regions in terms of the size and the timing of abatement costs and economic impact.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Arnulf GrÃ¼bler & Nebojsa Nakicenovic & Joe Alcamo & Ged Davis & Joergen Fenhann & Bill Hare & Shunsuke Mori & Bill Pepper & Hugh Pitcher & Keywan Riahi & Hans-Holger Rogner & Emilo Lebre La Rovere & , 2004. "Emissions Scenarios: A Final Response," Energy & Environment, , vol. 15(1), pages 11-24, January.
- D. Gale Johnson, 2000. "Population, Food, and Knowledge," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 1-14, March.
- James D. Hamilton, 2009.
"Understanding Crude Oil Prices,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 179-206.
- Ottmar Edenhofer , Brigitte Knopf, Terry Barker, Lavinia Baumstark, Elie Bellevrat, Bertrand Chateau, Patrick Criqui, Morna Isaac, Alban Kitous, Socrates Kypreos, Marian Leimbach, Kai Lessmann, Bertra, 2010.
"The Economics of Low Stabilization: Model Comparison of Mitigation Strategies and Costs,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
- Ottmar Edenhofer & Brigitte Knopf & Terry Barker & Lavinia Baumstark & Elie Bellevrat & Bertrand Chateau & Patrick Criqui & Morna Isaac & Alban Kitous & Socrates Kypreos & Marian Leimbach & Kai Lessma, 2010. "The economics of low stabilization: Model comparison of mitigation strategies and costs," Post-Print halshs-00450290, HAL.
- Ehrlich, Paul R., 1989. "The limits to substitution: Meta-resource depletion and a new economic-ecological paradigm," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 9-16, February.
- Tol, Richard S. J., 2009. "The Feasibility of Low Concentration Targets: An Application of FUND," Papers WP285, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- Peter Russ & Patrick Criqui, 2007. "Post-Kyoto CO2 emission reduction : the soft landing scenario analysed with POLES and other world models," Post-Print halshs-00078489, HAL.
- Ekins, Paul, 1993. "'Limits to growth' and 'sustainable development': grappling with ecological realities," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 269-288, December.
- van Vuuren, Detlef & Fengqi, Zhou & Vries, Bert de & Kejun, Jiang & Graveland, Cor & Yun, Li, 2003. "Energy and emission scenarios for China in the 21st century--exploration of baseline development and mitigation options," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 369-387, March.
- Enrica De Cian & Valentina Bosetti & Alessandra Sgobbi & Massimo Tavoni, 2009. "The 2008 WITCH Model: New Model Features and Baseline," Working Papers 2009.85, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Russ, Peter & Criqui, Patrick, 2007. "Post-Kyoto CO2 emission reduction: The soft landing scenario analysed with POLES and other world models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 786-796, February.
- Persson, T. & Tabellini, G., 1993.
"Is Inequality Harmful for Growth,"
537, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Terry Barker and S. Serban Scrieciu, 2010. "Modeling Low Climate Stabilization with E3MG: Towards a 'New Economics' Approach to Simulating Energy-Environment-Economy System Dynamics," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
- Victor, Peter A., 2012. "Growth, degrowth and climate change: A scenario analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 206-212.
- Criqui, Patrick & Mima, Silvana & Viguier, Laurent, 1999. "Marginal abatement costs of CO2 emission reductions, geographical flexibility and concrete ceilings: an assessment using the POLES model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 585-601, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcc:wpaper:2011-08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sergio Faria)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.