IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v56y2016icp513-525.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long-term abatement potential and current policy trajectories in Latin American countries

Author

Listed:
  • Clarke, Leon
  • McFarland, James
  • Octaviano, Claudia
  • van Ruijven, Bas
  • Beach, Robert
  • Daenzer, Kathryn
  • Herreras Martínez, Sara
  • Lucena, André F.P.
  • Kitous, Alban
  • Labriet, Maryse
  • Loboguerrero Rodriguez, Ana Maria
  • Mundra, Anupriya
  • van der Zwaan, Bob

Abstract

This paper provides perspectives on the role of Latin American and Latin American countries in meeting global abatement goals, based on the scenarios developed through the CLIMACAP–LAMP modeling study. Abatement potential in Latin America, among other things, is influenced by its development status, the large contributions of non-CO2 and land use change CO2 emissions, and energy endowments. In most scenarios in this study, the economic potential to reduce fossil fuel CO2 as well as non-CO2 emissions in Latin America in 2050 is lower than in the rest of the world (in total) when measured against 2010 emissions, due largely to higher emission growth in Latin America than in the rest of the world in the absence of abatement. The potential to reduce land use change CO2 emissions is complicated by a wide range of factors and is not addressed in this paper (land use emissions are largely addressed in a companion paper). The study confirms the results of previous research that the variation in abatement costs across models may vary by an order of magnitude or more, limiting the value of these assessments and supporting continued calls for research on the degree to which models are effectively representing key local circumstances that influence costs and available abatement options. Finally, a review of policies in place in several Latin American countries at the time of this writing finds that they would be of varying success in meeting the emission levels proposed by the most recent IPCC reports to limit global temperature change to 2°C.

Suggested Citation

  • Clarke, Leon & McFarland, James & Octaviano, Claudia & van Ruijven, Bas & Beach, Robert & Daenzer, Kathryn & Herreras Martínez, Sara & Lucena, André F.P. & Kitous, Alban & Labriet, Maryse & Loboguerre, 2016. "Long-term abatement potential and current policy trajectories in Latin American countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 513-525.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:56:y:2016:i:c:p:513-525
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.01.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988316000402
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Markandya, A. & González-Eguino, M. & Criqui, P. & Mima, S., 2014. "Low climate stabilisation under diverse growth and convergence scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 288-301.
    2. Niklas H�hne & Michel den Elzen & Donovan Escalante, 2014. "Regional GHG reduction targets based on effort sharing: a comparison of studies," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 122-147, January.
    3. Bradford Griffin & Pierre Buisson & Patrick Criqui & Silvana Mima, 2014. "White Knights: Will wind and solar come to the rescue of a looming capacity gap from nuclear phase-out or slow CCS start-up?," Post-Print halshs-00873661, HAL.
    4. Criqui, P. & Mima, S. & Menanteau, P. & Kitous, A., 2015. "Mitigation strategies and energy technology learning: An assessment with the POLES model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 119-136.
    5. O'Neill, Brian C. & Ren, Xiaolin & Jiang, Leiwen & Dalton, Michael, 2012. "The effect of urbanization on energy use in India and China in the iPETS model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 339-345.
    6. Kriegler, Elmar & Riahi, Keywan & Bauer, Nico & Schwanitz, Valeria Jana & Petermann, Nils & Bosetti, Valentina & Marcucci, Adriana & Otto, Sander & Paroussos, Leonidas & Rao, Shilpa & Arroyo Currás, T, 2015. "Making or breaking climate targets: The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 24-44.
    7. Kathryn Daenzer & Ian Wing & Karen Fisher-Vanden, 2014. "Coal’s medium-run future under atmospheric greenhouse gas stabilization," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 763-783, April.
    8. Markandya, Anil, 2011. "Equity and Distributional Implications of Climate Change," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1051-1060, June.
    9. Bradford Griffin & Pierre Buisson & Patrick Criqui & Silvana Mima, 2014. "White Knights: will wind and solar come to the rescue of a looming capacity gap from nuclear phase-out or slow CCS start-up?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 623-635, April.
    10. Alban Kitous, Patrick Criqui, Elie Bellevrat and Bertrand Chateau, 2010. "Transformation Patterns of the Worldwide Energy System - Scenarios for the Century with the POLES Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    11. World Bank, 2014. "World Development Indicators 2014," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 18237, November.
    12. Clarke, Leon & Krey, Volker & Weyant, John & Chaturvedi, Vaibhav, 2012. "Regional energy system variation in global models: Results from the Asian Modeling Exercise scenarios," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 293-305.
    13. Anil Markandaya & Mikel Gonzalez-Eguino & Patrick Criqui & Silvana Mima, 2014. "Low climate stabilisation under diverse growth and convergence scenarios," Post-Print halshs-00872630, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. van der Zwaan, Bob & Kober, Tom & Calderon, Silvia & Clarke, Leon & Daenzer, Katie & Kitous, Alban & Labriet, Maryse & Lucena, André F.P. & Octaviano, Claudia & Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolas, 2016. "Energy technology roll-out for climate change mitigation: A multi-model study for Latin America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 526-542.
    2. Lucena, André F.P. & Clarke, Leon & Schaeffer, Roberto & Szklo, Alexandre & Rochedo, Pedro R.R. & Nogueira, Larissa P.P. & Daenzer, Kathryn & Gurgel, Angelo & Kitous, Alban & Kober, Tom, 2016. "Climate policy scenarios in Brazil: A multi-model comparison for energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 564-574.
    3. Ansari, Dawud & Holz, Franziska, 2020. "Between stranded assets and green transformation: Fossil-fuel-producing developing countries towards 2055," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. Arango-Aramburo, Santiago & Turner, Sean W.D. & Daenzer, Kathryn & Ríos-Ocampo, Juan Pablo & Hejazi, Mohamad I. & Kober, Tom & Álvarez-Espinosa, Andrés C. & Romero-Otalora, Germán D. & van der Zwaan, , 2019. "Climate impacts on hydropower in Colombia: A multi-model assessment of power sector adaptation pathways," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 179-188.
    5. van der Zwaan, Bob & Kober, Tom & Longa, Francesco Dalla & van der Laan, Anouk & Jan Kramer, Gert, 2018. "An integrated assessment of pathways for low-carbon development in Africa," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 387-395.
    6. Oskar LECUYER & Esperanza GONZALEZ-MAHECHA & Michelle HALLACK & Morgan BAZILIAN & Adrien VOGT-SCHILB, 2019. "Committed emissions and the risk of stranded assets from power plants in Latin America and the Caribbean," Working Paper 7d9ac525-0354-46ef-aa0b-f, Agence française de développement.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. van Ruijven, Bas J. & Daenzer, Katie & Fisher-Vanden, Karen & Kober, Tom & Paltsev, Sergey & Beach, Robert H. & Calderon, Silvia Liliana & Calvin, Kate & Labriet, Maryse & Kitous, Alban & Lucena, Andr, 2016. "Baseline projections for Latin America: base-year assumptions, key drivers and greenhouse emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 499-512.
    2. van der Zwaan, Bob & Kober, Tom & Calderon, Silvia & Clarke, Leon & Daenzer, Katie & Kitous, Alban & Labriet, Maryse & Lucena, André F.P. & Octaviano, Claudia & Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolas, 2016. "Energy technology roll-out for climate change mitigation: A multi-model study for Latin America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 526-542.
    3. Lucena, André F.P. & Clarke, Leon & Schaeffer, Roberto & Szklo, Alexandre & Rochedo, Pedro R.R. & Nogueira, Larissa P.P. & Daenzer, Kathryn & Gurgel, Angelo & Kitous, Alban & Kober, Tom, 2016. "Climate policy scenarios in Brazil: A multi-model comparison for energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 564-574.
    4. Kober, Tom & Falzon, James & van der Zwaan, Bob & Calvin, Katherine & Kanudia, Amit & Kitous, Alban & Labriet, Maryse, 2016. "A multi-model study of energy supply investments in Latin America under climate control policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 543-551.
    5. Child, Michael & Koskinen, Otto & Linnanen, Lassi & Breyer, Christian, 2018. "Sustainability guardrails for energy scenarios of the global energy transition," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 321-334.
    6. Kriegler, Elmar & Petermann, Nils & Krey, Volker & Schwanitz, Valeria Jana & Luderer, Gunnar & Ashina, Shuichi & Bosetti, Valentina & Eom, Jiyong & Kitous, Alban & Méjean, Aurélie & Paroussos, Leonida, 2015. "Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 45-61.
    7. De Cian, Enrica & Dasgupta, Shouro & Hof, Andries F. & van Sluisveld, Mariësse A.E. & Köhler, Jonathan & Pfluger, Benjamin & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2020. "Actors, decision-making, and institutions in quantitative system modelling," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    8. Savvidis, Georgios & Siala, Kais & Weissbart, Christoph & Schmidt, Lukas & Borggrefe, Frieder & Kumar, Subhash & Pittel, Karen & Madlener, Reinhard & Hufendiek, Kai, 2019. "The gap between energy policy challenges and model capabilities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 503-520.
    9. Hang Deng & Jeffrey M. Bielicki & Michael Oppenheimer & Jeffrey P. Fitts & Catherine A. Peters, 2017. "Leakage risks of geologic CO2 storage and the impacts on the global energy system and climate change mitigation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 151-163, September.
    10. Krey, Volker & O'Neill, Brian C. & van Ruijven, Bas & Chaturvedi, Vaibhav & Daioglou, Vassilis & Eom, Jiyong & Jiang, Leiwen & Nagai, Yu & Pachauri, Shonali & Ren, Xiaolin, 2012. "Urban and rural energy use and carbon dioxide emissions in Asia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 272-283.
    11. Price, James & Keppo, Ilkka, 2017. "Modelling to generate alternatives: A technique to explore uncertainty in energy-environment-economy models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 356-369.
    12. Jérôme Hilaire & Jan C. Minx & Max W. Callaghan & Jae Edmonds & Gunnar Luderer & Gregory F. Nemet & Joeri Rogelj & Maria Mar Zamora, 2019. "Negative emissions and international climate goals—learning from and about mitigation scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(2), pages 189-219, November.
    13. Riahi, Keywan & Kriegler, Elmar & Johnson, Nils & Bertram, Christoph & den Elzen, Michel & Eom, Jiyong & Schaeffer, Michiel & Edmonds, Jae & Isaac, Morna & Krey, Volker & Longden, Thomas & Luderer, Gu, 2015. "Locked into Copenhagen pledges — Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 8-23.
    14. Liobikienė, Genovaitė & Butkus, Mindaugas, 2017. "The European Union possibilities to achieve targets of Europe 2020 and Paris agreement climate policy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 298-309.
    15. Krey, Volker & Guo, Fei & Kolp, Peter & Zhou, Wenji & Schaeffer, Roberto & Awasthy, Aayushi & Bertram, Christoph & de Boer, Harmen-Sytze & Fragkos, Panagiotis & Fujimori, Shinichiro & He, Chenmin & Iy, 2019. "Looking under the hood: A comparison of techno-economic assumptions across national and global integrated assessment models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 1254-1267.
    16. Ibon Galarraga & Mikel Gonzalez-Eguino & Dirk T. G. Rübbelke, 2016. "Environmental Economics, Climate Change Policy and Beyond: A Tribute to Anil Markandya," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 63(2), pages 219-224, February.
    17. Qiang Liu & Alun Gu & Fei Teng & Ranping Song & Yi Chen, 2017. "Peaking China’s CO 2 Emissions: Trends to 2030 and Mitigation Potential," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(2), pages 1-22, February.
    18. Muhammad Akhtaruzzaman & Shaohua Yang & Azizah Omar, 2018. "Are Resource-Rich Countries More Attractive than Countries with Good Institutions to Foreign Direct Investors in Sub-Saharan Africa?," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(6), pages 65-74, June.
    19. Charléty, Patricia & Romelli, Davide & Santacreu-Vasut, Estefania, 2017. "Appointments to central bank boards: Does gender matter?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 59-61.
    20. David Roodman, 2020. "The impact of life-saving interventions on fertility," Papers 2007.11388, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Scenarios; Latin America; Climate mitigation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:56:y:2016:i:c:p:513-525. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Haili He). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.