IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fem/femwpa/2017.46.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Actors, Decision-making, and Institutions in Quantitative System Modelling

Author

Listed:
  • Enrica De Cian

    (FEEM and CMCC)

  • Shouro Dasgupta

    (FEEM and CMCC)

  • Andries F. Hof

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and Utrecht University)

  • Mariësse A.E. van Sluisveld

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and Utrecht University)

  • Jonathan Köhler

    (ISI Fraunhofer Institute)

  • Benjamin Pfluger

    (ISI Fraunhofer Institute)

  • Detlef P. van Vuuren

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and Utrecht University)

Abstract

Increasing the realism with respect to the representation of actors, decision-making, and institutions is critical to better understand the transition towards a low-carbon sustainable society since actors, decision-making, and institutions are the defining elements of transition pathways. In this paper, we explore how this can be done by conducting a model-based scenario analysis. The increasing focus on implementation and transition dynamics towards long-term objectives requires a better comprehension of what drives change and how those changes can be accelerated. We explore opportunities that arise from a deeper engagement of quantitative systems modeling with socio-technical transitions studies, initiative-based learning, and applied economics. We argue that a number of opportunities for enriching the realism in model-based scenario analysis can arise through model refinements oriented towards a more detailed approach in terms of actor heterogeneity, as well as through integration across different analytical and disciplinary approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrica De Cian & Shouro Dasgupta & Andries F. Hof & Mariësse A.E. van Sluisveld & Jonathan Köhler & Benjamin Pfluger & Detlef P. van Vuuren, 2017. "Actors, Decision-making, and Institutions in Quantitative System Modelling," Working Papers 2017.46, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2017.46
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://feem-media.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/NDL2017-046.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. MASSIMO TAVONI & ELMAR KRIEGLER & TINO ABOUMAHBOUB & KATE CALVIN & GAUTHIER DE MAERE & MARSHALL WISE & DAVID KLEIN & JESSICA JEWELL & TOM KOBER & PAUL LUCAS & GUNNAR LUDERER & DAVID McCOLLUM & GIACOMO, 2013. "The Distribution Of The Major Economies' Effort In The Durban Platform Scenarios," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(04), pages 1-25.
    2. Köhler, Jonathan & Whitmarsh, Lorraine & Nykvist, Björn & Schilperoord, Michel & Bergman, Noam & Haxeltine, Alex, 2009. "A transitions model for sustainable mobility," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(12), pages 2985-2995, October.
    3. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A., 2005. "Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 385-472, Elsevier.
    4. Le Pen, Yannick & Sévi, Benoît, 2010. "On the non-convergence of energy intensities: Evidence from a pair-wise econometric approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 641-650, January.
    5. O'Neill, Brian C. & Ren, Xiaolin & Jiang, Leiwen & Dalton, Michael, 2012. "The effect of urbanization on energy use in India and China in the iPETS model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 339-345.
    6. Kriegler, Elmar & Riahi, Keywan & Bauer, Nico & Schwanitz, Valeria Jana & Petermann, Nils & Bosetti, Valentina & Marcucci, Adriana & Otto, Sander & Paroussos, Leonidas & Rao, Shilpa & Arroyo Currás, T, 2015. "Making or breaking climate targets: The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 24-44.
    7. Ekholm, Tommi & Krey, Volker & Pachauri, Shonali & Riahi, Keywan, 2010. "Determinants of household energy consumption in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5696-5707, October.
    8. Elmar Kriegler & Massimo Tavoni & Keywan Riahi & Detlef P. Van Vuuren, 2013. "Introducing The Limits Special Issue," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(04), pages 1-9.
    9. Shouro Dasgupta & Enrica De Cian & Elena Verdolini, 2016. "The Political Economy of Energy Innovation," Working Papers 2016.35, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    10. Johannes Emmerling & Laurent Drouet & Lara Aleluia Reis & Michela Bevione & Loic Berger & Valentina Bosetti & Samuel Carrara & Enrica De Cian & Gauthier De Maere D'Aertrycke & Tom Longden & Maurizio M, 2016. "The WITCH 2016 Model - Documentation and Implementation of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," Working Papers 2016.42, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    11. Geels, Frank W. & Schot, Johan, 2007. "Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 399-417, April.
    12. Paul L. Joskow, 2008. "Lessons Learned From Electricity Market Liberalization," The Energy Journal, , vol. 29(2_suppl), pages 9-42, December.
    13. Riahi, Keywan & Kriegler, Elmar & Johnson, Nils & Bertram, Christoph & den Elzen, Michel & Eom, Jiyong & Schaeffer, Michiel & Edmonds, Jae & Isaac, Morna & Krey, Volker & Longden, Thomas & Luderer, Gu, 2015. "Locked into Copenhagen pledges — Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 8-23.
    14. Shouro Dasgupta, Shouro & De Cian, Enrica & Verdolini, Elena, 2016. "The Political Economy of Energy Innovation," MITP: Mitigation, Innovation and Transformation Pathways 234939, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    15. Melnikov, N.B. & O'Neill, B.C. & Dalton, M.G., 2012. "Accounting for household heterogeneity in general equilibrium economic growth models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1475-1483.
    16. Daron Acemoglu & James Robinson, 2010. "The Role of Institutions in Growth and Development," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 1(2).
    17. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    18. Geels, Frank W., 2002. "Technological transitions as evolutionary reconfiguration processes: a multi-level perspective and a case-study," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(8-9), pages 1257-1274, December.
    19. Joshua M. Epstein & Robert L. Axtell, 1996. "Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262550253, April.
    20. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6801 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. David Victor, 2015. "Climate change: Embed the social sciences in climate policy," Nature, Nature, vol. 520(7545), pages 27-29, April.
    22. Krey, Volker & O'Neill, Brian C. & van Ruijven, Bas & Chaturvedi, Vaibhav & Daioglou, Vassilis & Eom, Jiyong & Jiang, Leiwen & Nagai, Yu & Pachauri, Shonali & Ren, Xiaolin, 2012. "Urban and rural energy use and carbon dioxide emissions in Asia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 272-283.
    23. Eom, Jiyong & Clarke, Leon & Kim, Son H. & Kyle, Page & Patel, Pralit, 2012. "China's building energy demand: Long-term implications from a detailed assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 405-419.
    24. Gokul C. Iyer & Leon E. Clarke & James A. Edmonds & Brian P. Flannery & Nathan E. Hultman & Haewon C. McJeon & David G. Victor, 2015. "Improved representation of investment decisions in assessments of CO2 mitigation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(5), pages 436-440, May.
    25. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
    26. Volker Krey, 2014. "Global energy-climate scenarios and models: a review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(4), pages 363-383, July.
    27. Melnikov, Nikolai B. & O’Neill, Brian C. & Dalton, Michael G. & van Ruijven, Bas J., 2017. "Downscaling heterogeneous household outcomes in dynamic CGE models for energy-economic analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 87-97.
    28. J. Farmer & Cameron Hepburn & Penny Mealy & Alexander Teytelboym, 2015. "A Third Wave in the Economics of Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 62(2), pages 329-357, October.
    29. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Mastruzzi, Massimo, 2010. "The worldwide governance indicators : methodology and analytical issues," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5430, The World Bank.
    30. Markard, Jochen & Raven, Rob & Truffer, Bernhard, 2012. "Sustainability transitions: An emerging field of research and its prospects," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 955-967.
    31. Elmar Kriegler & Massimo Tavoni & Tino Aboumahboub & Gunnar Luderer & Katherine Calvin & Gauthier Demaere & Volker Krey & Keywan Riahi & Hilke Rösler & Michiel Schaeffer & Detlef P. Van Vuuren, 2013. "What Does The 2°C Target Imply For A Global Climate Agreement In 2020? The Limits Study On Durban Platform Scenarios," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(04), pages 1-30.
    32. van Ruijven, Bas J. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & de Vries, Bert J.M. & Isaac, Morna & van der Sluijs, Jeroen P. & Lucas, Paul L. & Balachandra, P., 2011. "Model projections for household energy use in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7747-7761.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ansari, Dawud & Holz, Franziska, 2020. "Between stranded assets and green transformation: Fossil-fuel-producing developing countries towards 2055," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 130, pages 1-1.
    2. Odenweller, Adrian, 2022. "Climate mitigation under S-shaped energy technology diffusion: Leveraging synergies of optimisation and simulation models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    3. Claire Copeland & Britta Turner & Gareth Powells & Kevin Wilson, 2022. "In Search of Complementarity: Insights from an Exercise in Quantifying Qualitative Energy Futures," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-21, July.
    4. Jahel, Camille & Bourgeois, Robin & Bourgoin, Jérémy & Daré, William's & De Lattre-Gasquet, Marie & Delay, Etienne & Dumas, Patrice & Le Page, Christophe & Piraux, Marc & Prudhomme, Rémi, 2023. "The future of social-ecological systems at the crossroads of quantitative and qualitative methods," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    5. Hof, Andries F. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Berkhout, Frans & Geels, Frank W., 2020. "Understanding transition pathways by bridging modelling, transition and practice-based studies: Editorial introduction to the special issue," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    6. Hof, Andries F. & Carrara, Samuel & De Cian, Enrica & Pfluger, Benjamin & van Sluisveld, Mariësse A.E. & de Boer, Harmen Sytze & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2020. "From global to national scenarios: Bridging different models to explore power generation decarbonisation based on insights from socio-technical transition case studies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    7. Cheng Wang & Tao Lv & Rongjiang Cai & Jianfeng Xu & Liya Wang, 2022. "Bibliometric Analysis of Multi-Level Perspective on Sustainability Transition Research," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-31, March.
    8. Ansari, Dawud & Holz, Franziska, 2019. "Anticipating global energy, climate and policy in 2055: Constructing qualitative and quantitative narratives," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 58, pages 1-23.
    9. Motlaghzadeh, Kasra & Schweizer, Vanessa & Craik, Neil & Moreno-Cruz, Juan, 2023. "Key uncertainties behind global projections of direct air capture deployment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. van Sluisveld, Mariësse A.E. & Hof, Andries F. & Carrara, Samuel & Geels, Frank W. & Nilsson, Måns & Rogge, Karoline & Turnheim, Bruno & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2020. "Aligning integrated assessment modelling with socio-technical transition insights: An application to low-carbon energy scenario analysis in Europe," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. van Ruijven, Bas J. & O’Neill, Brian C. & Chateau, Jean, 2015. "Methods for including income distribution in global CGE models for long-term climate change research," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 530-543.
    3. Odenweller, Adrian, 2022. "Climate mitigation under S-shaped energy technology diffusion: Leveraging synergies of optimisation and simulation models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    4. Turnheim, Bruno & Nykvist, Björn, 2019. "Opening up the feasibility of sustainability transitions pathways (STPs): Representations, potentials, and conditions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 775-788.
    5. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Strachan, Neil, 2015. "A review of socio-technical energy transition (STET) models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 290-305.
    6. Shouro Dasgupta & Enrica De Cian, 2016. "Institutions and the Environment: Existing Evidence and Future Directions," Working Papers 2016.41, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    7. Hof, Andries F. & Carrara, Samuel & De Cian, Enrica & Pfluger, Benjamin & van Sluisveld, Mariësse A.E. & de Boer, Harmen Sytze & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2020. "From global to national scenarios: Bridging different models to explore power generation decarbonisation based on insights from socio-technical transition case studies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    8. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Wenz, Leonie, 2020. "The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    9. N. B. Melnikov & A. P. Gruzdev & M. G. Dalton & M. Weitzel & B. C. O’Neill, 2021. "Parallel Extended Path Method for Solving Perfect Foresight Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(2), pages 517-534, August.
    10. Volker Krey, 2014. "Global energy-climate scenarios and models: a review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(4), pages 363-383, July.
    11. Edelenbosch, OY & Rovelli, D & Levesque, A & Marangoni, G & Tavoni, M, 2021. "Long term, cross-country effects of buildings insulation policies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    12. Walrave, Bob & Raven, Rob, 2016. "Modelling the dynamics of technological innovation systems," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(9), pages 1833-1844.
    13. Mura, Matteo & Longo, Mariolina & Toschi, Laura & Zanni, Sara & Visani, Franco & Bianconcini, Silvia, 2021. "The role of geographical scales in sustainability transitions: An empirical investigation of the European industrial context," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    14. Matos, Stelvia & Viardot, Eric & Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Geels, Frank W. & Xiong, Yu, 2022. "Innovation and climate change: A review and introduction to the special issue," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    15. Safarzyńska, Karolina & Frenken, Koen & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2012. "Evolutionary theorizing and modeling of sustainability transitions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1011-1024.
    16. Ajay Gambhir & Isabela Butnar & Pei-Hao Li & Pete Smith & Neil Strachan, 2019. "A Review of Criticisms of Integrated Assessment Models and Proposed Approaches to Address These, through the Lens of BECCS," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-21, May.
    17. Silva Herran, Diego & Tachiiri, Kaoru & Matsumoto, Ken'ichi, 2019. "Global energy system transformations in mitigation scenarios considering climate uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C), pages 119-131.
    18. Auke Hoekstra & Maarten Steinbuch & Geert Verbong, 2017. "Creating Agent-Based Energy Transition Management Models That Can Uncover Profitable Pathways to Climate Change Mitigation," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-23, December.
    19. Bessi, Alessandro & Guidolin, Mariangela & Manfredi, Piero, 2021. "The role of gas on future perspectives of renewable energy diffusion: Bridging technology or lock-in?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    20. Hartin, Corinne & Link, Robert & Patel, Pralit & Mundra, Anupriya & Horowitz, Russell & Dorheim, Kalyn & Clarke, Leon, 2021. "Integrated modeling of human-earth system interactions: An application of GCAM-fusion," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Modelling; Transition Pathways; Scenarios; Institutions; Governance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • Q00 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - General
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2017.46. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alberto Prina Cerai (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feemmit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.