IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v34y2012is3ps293-s305.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Regional energy system variation in global models: Results from the Asian Modeling Exercise scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Clarke, Leon
  • Krey, Volker
  • Weyant, John
  • Chaturvedi, Vaibhav

Abstract

This paper explores the variation in Asian energy systems in the energy-economic and integrated assessment models participating in the Asian Modeling Exercise (AME). Consistent with previous studies, there is substantial variation in energy system configurations across the AME scenarios, a reflection of the inherent uncertainty in how countries might undertake climate mitigation and associated energy system decisions. The paper also explores the degree to which scenarios from individual models retain regional differences in energy system configurations over time. The scenarios are mixed in this regard. Some models tend to converge toward common energy systems that focus on the utilization of a common set of options across regions, while others retain strong differences among regions. A review of modeling approaches indicates that the participating models are constructed to represent many, but not all, of the real-world forces leading to regional variation. The models do not have the capability to represent some of the most important social and political factors that influence energy technology decision making, raising important questions about how decision makers should interpret regional variations across models, particularly over the medium to long term.

Suggested Citation

  • Clarke, Leon & Krey, Volker & Weyant, John & Chaturvedi, Vaibhav, 2012. "Regional energy system variation in global models: Results from the Asian Modeling Exercise scenarios," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 293-305.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:s3:p:s293-s305
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.07.018
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988312001624
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bollen, Johannes & Hers, Sebastiaan & van der Zwaan, Bob, 2010. "An integrated assessment of climate change, air pollution, and energy security policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4021-4030, August.
    2. B.C. O'Neill & T Carter & Kl Ebi & J. Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & E. Kemp-Benedict & E. Kriegler & L. Mearns & R. Moss & K. Riahi & B. van Ruijven & D. van Vuuren, 2012. "Meeting Report of the Workshop on The Nature and Use of New Socioeconomic Pathways for Climate Change Research," CIRED Working Papers hal-00801931, HAL.
    3. van Vliet, Oscar & Krey, Volker & McCollum, David & Pachauri, Shonali & Nagai, Yu & Rao, Shilpa & Riahi, Keywan, 2012. "Synergies in the Asian energy system: Climate change, energy security, energy access and air pollution," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 470-480.
    4. Chaturvedi, Vaibhav & Waldhoff, Stephanie & Clarke, Leon & Fujimori, Shinichiro, 2012. "What are the starting points? Evaluating base-year assumptions in the Asian Modeling Exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 261-271.
    5. Kruyt, Bert & van Vuuren, D.P. & de Vries, H.J.M. & Groenenberg, H., 2009. "Indicators for energy security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2166-2181, June.
    6. Krey, Volker & O'Neill, Brian C. & van Ruijven, Bas & Chaturvedi, Vaibhav & Daioglou, Vassilis & Eom, Jiyong & Jiang, Leiwen & Nagai, Yu & Pachauri, Shonali & Ren, Xiaolin, 2012. "Urban and rural energy use and carbon dioxide emissions in Asia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 272-283.
    7. Weyant, John P., 2004. "Introduction and overview," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 501-515, July.
    8. Calvin, Katherine & Clarke, Leon & Krey, Volker & Blanford, Geoffrey & Jiang, Kejun & Kainuma, Mikiko & Kriegler, Elmar & Luderer, Gunnar & Shukla, P.R., 2012. "The role of Asia in mitigating climate change: Results from the Asia modeling exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 251-260.
    9. Volker Krey & Leon Clarke, 2011. "Role of renewable energy in climate mitigation: a synthesis of recent scenarios," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 1131-1158, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lucas, Paul L. & Nielsen, Jens & Calvin, Katherine & L. McCollum, David & Marangoni, Giacomo & Strefler, Jessica & van der Zwaan, Bob C.C. & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2015. "Future energy system challenges for Africa: Insights from Integrated Assessment Models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 705-717.
    2. Wilkerson, Jordan T. & Leibowicz, Benjamin D. & Turner, Delavane D. & Weyant, John P., 2015. "Comparison of integrated assessment models: Carbon price impacts on U.S. energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 18-31.
    3. Krey, Volker & O'Neill, Brian C. & van Ruijven, Bas & Chaturvedi, Vaibhav & Daioglou, Vassilis & Eom, Jiyong & Jiang, Leiwen & Nagai, Yu & Pachauri, Shonali & Ren, Xiaolin, 2012. "Urban and rural energy use and carbon dioxide emissions in Asia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 272-283.
    4. van der Zwaan, Bob & Kober, Tom & Calderon, Silvia & Clarke, Leon & Daenzer, Katie & Kitous, Alban & Labriet, Maryse & Lucena, André F.P. & Octaviano, Claudia & Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolas, 2016. "Energy technology roll-out for climate change mitigation: A multi-model study for Latin America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 526-542.
    5. Xunzhang, Pan & Wenying, Chen & Clarke, Leon E. & Lining, Wang & Guannan, Liu, 2017. "China's energy system transformation towards the 2°C goal: Implications of different effort-sharing principles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 116-126.
    6. Calvin, Katherine & Clarke, Leon & Krey, Volker & Blanford, Geoffrey & Jiang, Kejun & Kainuma, Mikiko & Kriegler, Elmar & Luderer, Gunnar & Shukla, P.R., 2012. "The role of Asia in mitigating climate change: Results from the Asia modeling exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 251-260.
    7. Ioanna Mouratiadou & Gunnar Luderer & Nico Bauer & Elmar Kriegler, 2016. "Emissions and their drivers: sensitivity to economic growth and fossil fuel availability across world regions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(1), pages 23-37, May.
    8. Volker Krey & Gunnar Luderer & Leon Clarke & Elmar Kriegler, 2014. "Getting from here to there – energy technology transformation pathways in the EMF27 scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 369-382, April.
    9. Mikhail Kozhevnikov & Lazar Gitelman & Elena Magaril & Romen Magaril & Alexandra Aristova, 2017. "Risk Reduction Methods for Managing the Development of Regional Electric Power Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(12), pages 1-14, November.
    10. Kriegler, Elmar & Petermann, Nils & Krey, Volker & Schwanitz, Valeria Jana & Luderer, Gunnar & Ashina, Shuichi & Bosetti, Valentina & Eom, Jiyong & Kitous, Alban & Méjean, Aurélie & Paroussos, Leonida, 2015. "Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 45-61.
    11. Chaturvedi, Vaibhav & Clarke, Leon & Edmonds, James & Calvin, Katherine & Kyle, Page, 2014. "Capital investment requirements for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation in power generation on near term to century time scales and global to regional spatial scales," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 267-278.
    12. Srinivasan, Shweta & Kholod, Nazar & Chaturvedi, Vaibhav & Ghosh, Probal Pratap & Mathur, Ritu & Clarke, Leon & Evans, Meredydd & Hejazi, Mohamad & Kanudia, Amit & Koti, Poonam Nagar & Liu, Bo & Parik, 2018. "Water for electricity in India: A multi-model study of future challenges and linkages to climate change mitigation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 673-684.
    13. Price, James & Keppo, Ilkka, 2017. "Modelling to generate alternatives: A technique to explore uncertainty in energy-environment-economy models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 356-369.
    14. Wiskich, Anthony, 2014. "Implementing a load duration curve of electricity demand in a general equilibrium model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 373-380.
    15. Krey, Volker & Guo, Fei & Kolp, Peter & Zhou, Wenji & Schaeffer, Roberto & Awasthy, Aayushi & Bertram, Christoph & de Boer, Harmen-Sytze & Fragkos, Panagiotis & Fujimori, Shinichiro & He, Chenmin & Iy, 2019. "Looking under the hood: A comparison of techno-economic assumptions across national and global integrated assessment models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 1254-1267.
    16. Chaturvedi, Vaibhav & Kim, Sonny & Smith, Steven J. & Clarke, Leon & Yuyu, Zhou & Kyle, Page & Patel, Pralit, 2013. "Model evaluation and hindcasting: An experiment with an integrated assessment model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 479-490.
    17. Lining Wang & Han Chen & Wenying Chen, 2020. "Co-control of carbon dioxide and air pollutant emissions in China from a cost-effective perspective," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(7), pages 1177-1197, October.
    18. Clarke, Leon & McFarland, James & Octaviano, Claudia & van Ruijven, Bas & Beach, Robert & Daenzer, Kathryn & Herreras Martínez, Sara & Lucena, André F.P. & Kitous, Alban & Labriet, Maryse & Loboguerre, 2016. "Long-term abatement potential and current policy trajectories in Latin American countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 513-525.
    19. Volker Krey, 2014. "Global energy-climate scenarios and models: a review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(4), pages 363-383, July.
    20. Qiang Liu & Alun Gu & Fei Teng & Ranping Song & Yi Chen, 2017. "Peaking China’s CO 2 Emissions: Trends to 2030 and Mitigation Potential," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(2), pages 1-22, February.
    21. Lucena, André F.P. & Clarke, Leon & Schaeffer, Roberto & Szklo, Alexandre & Rochedo, Pedro R.R. & Nogueira, Larissa P.P. & Daenzer, Kathryn & Gurgel, Angelo & Kitous, Alban & Kober, Tom, 2016. "Climate policy scenarios in Brazil: A multi-model comparison for energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 564-574.
    22. Haakon Vennemo & Jianwu He & Shantong Li, 2014. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Carbon Capture and Storage in China," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 59(3), pages 455-477, November.
    23. Paladugula, Anantha Lakshmi & Kholod, Nazar & Chaturvedi, Vaibhav & Ghosh, Probal Pratap & Pal, Sarbojit & Clarke, Leon & Evans, Meredydd & Kyle, Page & Koti, Poonam Nagar & Parikh, Kirit & Qamar, Sha, 2018. "A multi-model assessment of energy and emissions for India's transportation sector through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 10-18.
    24. Calvin, Katherine & Fawcett, Allen & Kejun, Jiang, 2012. "Comparing model results to national climate policy goals: Results from the Asia modeling exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 306-315.
    25. Lining Wang & Han Chen & Wenying Chen, 0. "Co-control of carbon dioxide and air pollutant emissions in China from a cost-effective perspective," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-21.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Calvin, Katherine & Clarke, Leon & Krey, Volker & Blanford, Geoffrey & Jiang, Kejun & Kainuma, Mikiko & Kriegler, Elmar & Luderer, Gunnar & Shukla, P.R., 2012. "The role of Asia in mitigating climate change: Results from the Asia modeling exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 251-260.
    2. Volker Krey, 2014. "Global energy-climate scenarios and models: a review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(4), pages 363-383, July.
    3. Chaturvedi, Vaibhav & Kim, Sonny & Smith, Steven J. & Clarke, Leon & Yuyu, Zhou & Kyle, Page & Patel, Pralit, 2013. "Model evaluation and hindcasting: An experiment with an integrated assessment model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 479-490.
    4. Dai, Hancheng & Mischke, Peggy & Xie, Xuxuan & Xie, Yang & Masui, Toshihiko, 2016. "Closing the gap? Top-down versus bottom-up projections of China’s regional energy use and CO2 emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1355-1373.
    5. Francesco Bosello & Carlo Orecchia & David A. Raitzer, 2016. "Decarbonization Pathways in Southeast Asia: New Results for Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam," Working Papers 2016.75, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    6. Ottmar Edenhofer & Susanne Kadner & Christoph von Stechow & Gregor Schwerhoff & Gunnar Luderer, 2014. "Linking climate change mitigation research to sustainable development," Chapters, in: Giles Atkinson & Simon Dietz & Eric Neumayer & Matthew Agarwala (ed.), Handbook of Sustainable Development, chapter 30, pages 476-499, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Blanford, Geoffrey J. & Rose, Steven K. & Tavoni, Massimo, 2012. "Baseline projections of energy and emissions in Asia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 284-292.
    8. Xavier Labandeira & Baltazar Manzano, 2012. "Some Economic Aspects of Energy Security," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 47-64.
    9. Calvin, Katherine & Fawcett, Allen & Kejun, Jiang, 2012. "Comparing model results to national climate policy goals: Results from the Asia modeling exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 306-315.
    10. van Vliet, Oscar & Krey, Volker & McCollum, David & Pachauri, Shonali & Nagai, Yu & Rao, Shilpa & Riahi, Keywan, 2012. "Synergies in the Asian energy system: Climate change, energy security, energy access and air pollution," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 470-480.
    11. Alshehri, Abdullah & Hussain, Ahmad & Mobarak, Youssef, 2014. "Energy-conversion measures in the industries of Saudi Arabia and development of methodology for certification of energy personnel in the Kingdom," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 203-208.
    12. Raghoo, Pravesh & Surroop, Dinesh & Wolf, Franziska & Leal Filho, Walter & Jeetah, Pratima & Delakowitz, Bernd, 2018. "Dimensions of energy security in Small Island Developing States," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 94-101.
    13. Gracceva, Francesco & Zeniewski, Peter, 2014. "A systemic approach to assessing energy security in a low-carbon EU energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 335-348.
    14. Krey, Volker & O'Neill, Brian C. & van Ruijven, Bas & Chaturvedi, Vaibhav & Daioglou, Vassilis & Eom, Jiyong & Jiang, Leiwen & Nagai, Yu & Pachauri, Shonali & Ren, Xiaolin, 2012. "Urban and rural energy use and carbon dioxide emissions in Asia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 272-283.
    15. repec:ers:journl:v:xv:y:2012:i:sie:p:47-64 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Augutis, Juozas & Krikštolaitis, Ričardas & Martišauskas, Linas & Pečiulytė, Sigita & Žutautaitė, Inga, 2017. "Integrated energy security assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 890-901.
    17. Filipović, Sanja & Radovanović, Mirjana & Golušin, Vladimir, 2018. "Macroeconomic and political aspects of energy security – Exploratory data analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 428-435.
    18. Shrestha, Ram M. & Shakya, Shree Raj, 2012. "Benefits of low carbon development in a developing country: Case of Nepal," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 503-512.
    19. Lucas, Paul L. & Nielsen, Jens & Calvin, Katherine & L. McCollum, David & Marangoni, Giacomo & Strefler, Jessica & van der Zwaan, Bob C.C. & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2015. "Future energy system challenges for Africa: Insights from Integrated Assessment Models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 705-717.
    20. Melnikov, Nikolai B. & O’Neill, Brian C. & Dalton, Michael G. & van Ruijven, Bas J., 2017. "Downscaling heterogeneous household outcomes in dynamic CGE models for energy-economic analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 87-97.
    21. Jewell, Jessica & Cherp, Aleh & Riahi, Keywan, 2014. "Energy security under de-carbonization scenarios: An assessment framework and evaluation under different technology and policy choices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 743-760.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:s3:p:s293-s305. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Nithya Sathishkumar). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.