Baseline projections of energy and emissions in Asia
This paper analyzes the projected development of energy systems in the Asia region in the hypothetical absence of future carbon policies. Baseline scenarios prepared by participating teams in the Asia Modeling Exercise are used to generate a comprehensive assessment of the key drivers of CO2 emissions for the next several decades, especially for China and India. We find a very wide range of projected emissions paths across the models and identify per capita income and energy intensity as the two major factors responsible for the variation. While the range of assumptions for growth in the former is roughly consistent with historical experience in other Asian economies, models foresee faster reductions in the latter with respect to those observed in neighboring countries at similar stages of economic development. On the other hand, there is a considerable agreement on the evolution of the energy technology mix, which is assumed to continue to be dominated by fossil fuels in the foreseeable future.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chaturvedi, Vaibhav & Waldhoff, Stephanie & Clarke, Leon & Fujimori, Shinichiro, 2012. "What are the starting points? Evaluating base-year assumptions in the Asian Modeling Exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 261-271.
- Calvin, Katherine & Clarke, Leon & Krey, Volker & Blanford, Geoffrey & Jiang, Kejun & Kainuma, Mikiko & Kriegler, Elmar & Luderer, Gunnar & Shukla, P.R., 2012. "The role of Asia in mitigating climate change: Results from the Asia modeling exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 251-260.