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Baseline projections of energy and emissions in Asia

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  • Blanford, Geoffrey J.
  • Rose, Steven K.
  • Tavoni, Massimo

Abstract

This paper analyzes the projected development of energy systems in the Asia region in the hypothetical absence of future carbon policies. Baseline scenarios prepared by participating teams in the Asia Modeling Exercise are used to generate a comprehensive assessment of the key drivers of CO2 emissions for the next several decades, especially for China and India. We find a very wide range of projected emissions paths across the models and identify per capita income and energy intensity as the two major factors responsible for the variation. While the range of assumptions for growth in the former is roughly consistent with historical experience in other Asian economies, models foresee faster reductions in the latter with respect to those observed in neighboring countries at similar stages of economic development. On the other hand, there is a considerable agreement on the evolution of the energy technology mix, which is assumed to continue to be dominated by fossil fuels in the foreseeable future.

Suggested Citation

  • Blanford, Geoffrey J. & Rose, Steven K. & Tavoni, Massimo, 2012. "Baseline projections of energy and emissions in Asia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 284-292.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:s3:p:s284-s292
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.08.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chaturvedi, Vaibhav & Waldhoff, Stephanie & Clarke, Leon & Fujimori, Shinichiro, 2012. "What are the starting points? Evaluating base-year assumptions in the Asian Modeling Exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 261-271.
    2. Calvin, Katherine & Clarke, Leon & Krey, Volker & Blanford, Geoffrey & Jiang, Kejun & Kainuma, Mikiko & Kriegler, Elmar & Luderer, Gunnar & Shukla, P.R., 2012. "The role of Asia in mitigating climate change: Results from the Asia modeling exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 251-260.
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    1. repec:eee:rensus:v:76:y:2017:i:c:p:1122-1133 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Hannah Förster & Katja Schumacher & Enrica De Cian & Michael Hübler & Ilkka Keppo & Silvana Mima & Ronald D. Sands, 2013. "European Energy Efficiency And Decarbonization Strategies Beyond 2030 — A Sectoral Multi-Model Decomposition," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(supp0), pages 1-29.
    3. repec:eee:eneeco:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:583-599 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Geoffrey Blanford & Elmar Kriegler & Massimo Tavoni, 2014. "Harmonization vs. fragmentation: overview of climate policy scenarios in EMF27," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 383-396, April.
    5. Pietzcker, Robert C. & Ueckerdt, Falko & Carrara, Samuel & de Boer, Harmen Sytze & Després, Jacques & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Johnson, Nils & Kitous, Alban & Scholz, Yvonne & Sullivan, Patrick & Ludere, 2017. "System integration of wind and solar power in integrated assessment models: A cross-model evaluation of new approaches," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 583-599.
    6. van Ruijven, Bas J. & Daenzer, Katie & Fisher-Vanden, Karen & Kober, Tom & Paltsev, Sergey & Beach, Robert H. & Calderon, Silvia Liliana & Calvin, Kate & Labriet, Maryse & Kitous, Alban & Lucena, Andr, 2016. "Baseline projections for Latin America: base-year assumptions, key drivers and greenhouse emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 499-512.
    7. repec:eee:energy:v:148:y:2018:i:c:p:514-527 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Khan, Muhammad Azhar & Khan, Muhammad Zahir & Zaman, Khalid & Irfan, Danish & Khatab, Humera, 2014. "Questing the three key growth determinants: Energy consumption, foreign direct investment and financial development in South Asia," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 203-215.
    9. Calvin, Katherine & Clarke, Leon & Krey, Volker & Blanford, Geoffrey & Jiang, Kejun & Kainuma, Mikiko & Kriegler, Elmar & Luderer, Gunnar & Shukla, P.R., 2012. "The role of Asia in mitigating climate change: Results from the Asia modeling exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 251-260.
    10. Ioanna Mouratiadou & Gunnar Luderer & Nico Bauer & Elmar Kriegler, 2016. "Emissions and their drivers: sensitivity to economic growth and fossil fuel availability across world regions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(1), pages 23-37, May.
    11. Chaturvedi, Vaibhav & Kim, Sonny & Smith, Steven J. & Clarke, Leon & Yuyu, Zhou & Kyle, Page & Patel, Pralit, 2013. "Model evaluation and hindcasting: An experiment with an integrated assessment model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 479-490.
    12. Calvin, Katherine & Fawcett, Allen & Kejun, Jiang, 2012. "Comparing model results to national climate policy goals: Results from the Asia modeling exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 306-315.
    13. Volker Krey, 2014. "Global energy-climate scenarios and models: a review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(4), pages 363-383, July.
    14. Richard Tol, 2013. "Low probability, high impact: the implications of a break-up of China for carbon dioxide emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(4), pages 961-970, April.
    15. Wen Xue & Donald W. Hine & Anthony D. G. Marks & Wendy J. Phillips & Patrick Nunn & Shouying Zhao, 2016. "Combining threat and efficacy messaging to increase public engagement with climate change in Beijing, China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 43-55, July.
    16. Marcucci, Adriana & Fragkos, Panagiotis, 2015. "Drivers of regional decarbonization through 2100: A multi-model decomposition analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 111-124.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Integrated assessment modeling; Baseline scenarios; Emissions projections; Asia;

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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