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Baseline projections for Latin America: base-year assumptions, key drivers and greenhouse emissions

Author

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  • van Ruijven, Bas J.
  • Daenzer, Katie
  • Fisher-Vanden, Karen
  • Kober, Tom
  • Paltsev, Sergey
  • Beach, Robert H.
  • Calderon, Silvia Liliana
  • Calvin, Kate
  • Labriet, Maryse
  • Kitous, Alban
  • Lucena, André F.P.
  • van Vuuren, Detlef P.

Abstract

This paper provides an overview of the base-year assumptions and baseline projections for the set of models participating in the LAMP and CLIMACAP projects. We present the range in baseline projections for Latin America, and identify key differences between model projections including how these projections compare to historic trends. We find relatively large differences across models in base year assumptions related to population, GDP, energy and CO2 emissions due to the use of different data sources, but also conclude that this does not influence the range of projections. We find that population and GDP projections across models span a broad range, comparable to the range represented by the set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Kaya-factor decomposition indicates that the set of baseline scenarios mirrors trends experienced over the past decades. Emissions in Latin America are projected to rise as a result of GDP and population growth and a minor shift in the energy mix toward fossil fuels. Most scenarios assume a somewhat higher GDP growth than historically observed and continued decline of population growth. Minor changes in energy intensity or energy mix are projected over the next few decades.

Suggested Citation

  • van Ruijven, Bas J. & Daenzer, Katie & Fisher-Vanden, Karen & Kober, Tom & Paltsev, Sergey & Beach, Robert H. & Calderon, Silvia Liliana & Calvin, Kate & Labriet, Maryse & Kitous, Alban & Lucena, Andr, 2016. "Baseline projections for Latin America: base-year assumptions, key drivers and greenhouse emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 499-512.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:56:y:2016:i:c:p:499-512
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2015.02.003
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    Cited by:

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    2. Hanif, Imran, 2017. "Economics-energy-environment nexus in Latin America and the Caribbean," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 170-178.
    3. Lin, Boqiang & Wang, Miao, 2021. "What drives energy intensity fall in China? Evidence from a meta-frontier approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    4. Arango-Aramburo, Santiago & Turner, Sean W.D. & Daenzer, Kathryn & Ríos-Ocampo, Juan Pablo & Hejazi, Mohamad I. & Kober, Tom & Álvarez-Espinosa, Andrés C. & Romero-Otalora, Germán D. & van der Zwaan, , 2019. "Climate impacts on hydropower in Colombia: A multi-model assessment of power sector adaptation pathways," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 179-188.
    5. Li, Hao & Zhao, Yuhuan & Qiao, Xiaoyong & Liu, Ya & Cao, Ye & Li, Yue & Wang, Song & Zhang, Zhonghua & Zhang, Yongfeng & Weng, Jianfeng, 2017. "Identifying the driving forces of national and regional CO2 emissions in China: Based on temporal and spatial decomposition analysis models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 522-538.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy; Scenarios; Greenhouse gas emissions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • P28 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Natural Resources; Environment
    • P48 - Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Political Economy; Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • N76 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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