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Energy Outlooks Compared: Global and Regional Insights

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  • Dawud Ansari
  • Franziska Holz
  • Hashem al-Kuhlani

Abstract

We compare prominent global energy scenarios of organisations and companies. We supplement the analysis with four own scenarios, which were derived from structured analytic techniques in combination with a numerical global energy and resource market model (Multimod). Our study provides three central contributions: (i) a compact survey of selected outlooks with meta characteristics (conceptual nature, numerical framework, qualitative elaboration) and quantitative energy system indicators at the global and regional (Europe, Asia-Pacific region, North America) level; (ii) numerous observations from a verbal analysis intended to stimulate future research; and (iii) the discussion of our own outlook. Among other conclusions, we find that scenarios essentially carrying forward current policies and/or trends lead to future worlds that do not meet the 2°C target of the Paris Agreement. Interestingly, there are both normative and exploratory scenarios reaching the Paris Agreement, and there is no consensus between outlooks on how to attain low-emission futures towards 2050. Some scenarios rely on a very strong role of renewables, others on a substantial role of negative emission technologies with fossil fuel use, yet others on assuming decreasing energy demand. There is a strong variation between outlooks with respect to transparency on scenario generation, modelling approach, and data. We argue that, in addition to transparency, the actual inclusion of a qualitative analysis of drivers and storylines helps ensure the political, social and technological feasibility of scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Dawud Ansari & Franziska Holz & Hashem al-Kuhlani, 2019. "Energy Outlooks Compared: Global and Regional Insights," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1837, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1837
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    Cited by:

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    2. Dawud Ansari, Franziska Holz, and Hashem Al-Kuhlani, 2020. "Energy Outlooks Compared: Global and Regional Insights," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 21-42.
    3. Ansari, Dawud & Holz, Franziska, 2020. "Between stranded assets and green transformation: Fossil-fuel-producing developing countries towards 2055," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 130, pages 1-1.
    4. Dawud Ansari & Regine Schönenberg & Melissa Abud & Laura Becerra & Anne Cristina de la Vega-Leinert & Nigel Dudley & Michael Dunlop & Carolina Figueroa & Oscar Guevara & Philipp Hauser & Hannes Hobbie, 2021. "Communications on Climate Change and Biodiversity Loss with Local Populations: Exploring Best-practices and Postcolonial Moments in Eight Case Studies from across the Globe," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1945, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Gauthier de Maere d’Aertrycke & Yves Smeers & Hugues de Peufeilhoux & Pierre-Laurent Lucille, 2020. "The Role of Electrification in the Decarbonization of Central-Western Europe," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-20, September.
    6. Durand-Lasserve, Olivier & Pierru, Axel, 2021. "Modeling world oil market questions: An economic perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy outlook; Scenario; Energy modelling; Climate change; Survey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General

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