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Energy Outlooks Compared: Global and Regional Insights

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  • Dawud Ansari
  • Franziska Holz
  • Hashem al-Kuhlani

Abstract

We compare prominent global energy scenarios of organisations and companies. We supplement the analysis with four own scenarios, which were derived from structured analytic techniques in combination with a numerical global energy and resource market model (Multimod). Our study provides three central contributions: (i) a compact survey of selected outlooks with meta characteristics (conceptual nature, numerical framework, qualitative elaboration) and quantitative energy system indicators at the global and regional (Europe, Asia-Pacific region, North America) level; (ii) numerous observations from a verbal analysis intended to stimulate future research; and (iii) the discussion of our own outlook. Among other conclusions, we find that scenarios essentially carrying forward current policies and/or trends lead to future worlds that do not meet the 2°C target of the Paris Agreement. Interestingly, there are both normative and exploratory scenarios reaching the Paris Agreement, and there is no consensus between outlooks on how to attain low-emission futures towards 2050. Some scenarios rely on a very strong role of renewables, others on a substantial role of negative emission technologies with fossil fuel use, yet others on assuming decreasing energy demand. There is a strong variation between outlooks with respect to transparency on scenario generation, modelling approach, and data. We argue that, in addition to transparency, the actual inclusion of a qualitative analysis of drivers and storylines helps ensure the political, social and technological feasibility of scenarios.

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  • Dawud Ansari & Franziska Holz & Hashem al-Kuhlani, 2019. "Energy Outlooks Compared: Global and Regional Insights," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1837, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1837
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    1. Dawud Ansari & Mariza Montes de Oca Leon & Helen Schlüter, 2021. "What Drives Saudi Airstrikes in Yemen? An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamics of Coalition Airstrikes, Houthi Attacks, and the Oil Market," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1959, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Dawud Ansari, Franziska Holz, and Hashem Al-Kuhlani, 2020. "Energy Outlooks Compared: Global and Regional Insights," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 21-42.
    3. Ansari, Dawud & Holz, Franziska, 2020. "Between stranded assets and green transformation: Fossil-fuel-producing developing countries towards 2055," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 130, pages 1-1.
    4. Dawud Ansari & Regine Schönenberg & Melissa Abud & Laura Becerra & Anne Cristina de la Vega-Leinert & Nigel Dudley & Michael Dunlop & Carolina Figueroa & Oscar Guevara & Philipp Hauser & Hannes Hobbie, 2021. "Communications on Climate Change and Biodiversity Loss with Local Populations: Exploring Best-practices and Postcolonial Moments in Eight Case Studies from across the Globe," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1945, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Gauthier de Maere d’Aertrycke & Yves Smeers & Hugues de Peufeilhoux & Pierre-Laurent Lucille, 2020. "The Role of Electrification in the Decarbonization of Central-Western Europe," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-20, September.
    6. Durand-Lasserve, Olivier & Pierru, Axel, 2021. "Modeling world oil market questions: An economic perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy outlook; Scenario; Energy modelling; Climate change; Survey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General

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