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Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark: IDA 2050, CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis), and Climate Commission 2050

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  • Kwon, Pil Seok
  • Østergaard, Poul Alberg

Abstract

Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy sectors. The methodologies used in two academic scenarios, IDA 2050 and CEESA, are compared. The main differences in the methodologies of IDA 2050 and CEESA are found in the estimation of future biomass potential, transport demand assessment, and a trial to examine future power grid in an electrical engineering perspective. The above-mentioned methodologies are compared in an evolutionary perspective to determine if the methodologies reflect the complex reality well. The results of the scenarios are also assessed within the framework of “radical technological change” in order to show which future scenario assumes more radical change within five dimensions of technology; technique, knowledge, organization, product, and profit.

Suggested Citation

  • Kwon, Pil Seok & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2012. "Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark: IDA 2050, CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis), and Climate Commission 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 275-282.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:46:y:2012:i:1:p:275-282
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2012.08.022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dawud Ansari & Franziska Holz & Hashem al-Kuhlani, 2019. "Energy Outlooks Compared: Global and Regional Insights," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1837, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Oropeza-Perez, Ivan & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2014. "The influence of an estimated energy saving due to natural ventilation on the Mexican energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1080-1091.
    3. Katz, Jonas & Andersen, Frits Møller & Morthorst, Poul Erik, 2016. "Load-shift incentives for household demand response: Evaluation of hourly dynamic pricing and rebate schemes in a wind-based electricity system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P3), pages 1602-1616.
    4. Mahbub, Md Shahriar & Cozzini, Marco & Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Alberti, Fabrizio, 2016. "Combining multi-objective evolutionary algorithms and descriptive analytical modelling in energy scenario design," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 140-151.
    5. Lund, Rasmus & Persson, Urban, 2016. "Mapping of potential heat sources for heat pumps for district heating in Denmark," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 129-138.
    6. Biegel, Benjamin & Hansen, Lars Henrik & Stoustrup, Jakob & Andersen, Palle & Harbo, Silas, 2014. "Value of flexible consumption in the electricity markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 354-362.
    7. Roux, Charlotte & Schalbart, Patrick & Assoumou, Edi & Peuportier, Bruno, 2016. "Integrating climate change and energy mix scenarios in LCA of buildings and districts," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 619-629.
    8. Sáfián, Fanni, 2014. "Modelling the Hungarian energy system – The first step towards sustainable energy planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 58-66.
    9. Hvelplund, Frede & Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Meyer, Niels I., 2017. "Incentives and barriers for wind power expansion and system integration in Denmark," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 573-584.
    10. Kwon, Pil Seok & Østergaard, Poul, 2014. "Assessment and evaluation of flexible demand in a Danish future energy scenario," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 309-320.
    11. Rootzén, Johan & Johnsson, Filip, 2015. "CO2 emissions abatement in the Nordic carbon-intensive industry – An end-game in sight?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 715-730.
    12. Ma, Tao & Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Lund, Henrik & Yang, Hongxing & Lu, Lin, 2014. "An energy system model for Hong Kong in 2020," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 301-310.
    13. Lund, Rasmus & Mathiesen, Brian Vad, 2015. "Large combined heat and power plants in sustainable energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 389-395.
    14. Oropeza-Perez, Ivan & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2014. "Energy saving potential of utilizing natural ventilation under warm conditions – A case study of Mexico," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 20-32.
    15. Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Andersen, Anders N., 2016. "Booster heat pumps and central heat pumps in district heating," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1374-1388.
    16. Sencar, Marko & Pozeb, Viljem & Krope, Tina, 2014. "Development of EU (European Union) energy market agenda and security of supply," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 117-124.

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