IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v123y2014i3p763-783.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Coal’s medium-run future under atmospheric greenhouse gas stabilization

Author

Listed:
  • Kathryn Daenzer
  • Ian Wing
  • Karen Fisher-Vanden

Abstract

We assess the future of coal under alternative climate stabilization regimes, investigating how the quantity and location of future coal production, trade and use depends upon five factors: the supply-side constraint of resource depletion, diversification and deepening of international trade, economic growth, trends in energy intensity, and the availability of coal-fired carbon-free electric generation technology (IGCC-CCS). Using the Phoenix computable general equilibrium model of the world economy, we find that coal is sensitive to demand-side assumptions about economic growth and energy-saving structural or technological change. In a 550 ppm stabilization emission tax scenario, the gobal coal industry initially declines sharply and then rebounds, in 2050 reaching roughly the same size as it is today—but only if IGCC-CCS is available by 2020. Under alternative stabilization regimes, IGCC-CCS penetration is a key influence on production and imports in major coal regions, where it interacts with extraction costs driven by the rate of depletion relative to trade partners. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Kathryn Daenzer & Ian Wing & Karen Fisher-Vanden, 2014. "Coal’s medium-run future under atmospheric greenhouse gas stabilization," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 763-783, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:123:y:2014:i:3:p:763-783
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1094-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-014-1094-3
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-014-1094-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. McFarland, James R. & Paltsev, Sergey & Jacoby, Henry D., 2009. "Analysis of the Coal Sector under Carbon Constraints," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 404-424, May.
    2. Boeters, Stefan & Bollen, Johannes, 2012. "Fossil fuel supply, leakage and the effectiveness of border measures in climate policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S2), pages 181-189.
    3. Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
    4. Philippidis, G. & Resano, H. & Sanjuán, A.I., 2014. "Shifting Armington trade preferences: A re-examination of the Mercosur–EU negotiations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 21-32.
    5. Wing, Ian Sue, 2006. "The synthesis of bottom-up and top-down approaches to climate policy modeling: Electric power technologies and the cost of limiting US CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3847-3869, December.
    6. Rutherford, Thomas F, 1999. "Applied General Equilibrium Modeling with MPSGE as a GAMS Subsystem: An Overview of the Modeling Framework and Syntax," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 14(1-2), pages 1-46, October.
    7. Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
    8. van der Werf, Edwin, 2008. "Production functions for climate policy modeling: An empirical analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2964-2979, November.
    9. Babiker, Mustafa H., 2005. "Climate change policy, market structure, and carbon leakage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 421-445, March.
    10. Ferris, Michael C. & Munson, Todd S., 2000. "Complementarity problems in GAMS and the PATH solver," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 165-188, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Clarke, Leon & McFarland, James & Octaviano, Claudia & van Ruijven, Bas & Beach, Robert & Daenzer, Kathryn & Herreras Martínez, Sara & Lucena, André F.P. & Kitous, Alban & Labriet, Maryse & Loboguerre, 2016. "Long-term abatement potential and current policy trajectories in Latin American countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 513-525.
    2. John Weyant & Elmar Kriegler, 2014. "Preface and introduction to EMF 27," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 345-352, April.
    3. van Ruijven, Bas J. & Daenzer, Katie & Fisher-Vanden, Karen & Kober, Tom & Paltsev, Sergey & Beach, Robert H. & Calderon, Silvia Liliana & Calvin, Kate & Labriet, Maryse & Kitous, Alban & Lucena, Andr, 2016. "Baseline projections for Latin America: base-year assumptions, key drivers and greenhouse emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 499-512.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elisa Lanzi & Ian Sue Wing, 2013. "Capital Malleability, Emission Leakage and the Cost of Partial Climate Policies: General Equilibrium Analysis of the European Union Emission Trading System," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 55(2), pages 257-289, June.
    2. Birgit Bednar-Friedl & Veronika Kulmer & Thomas Schinko, 2012. "The effectiveness of anti-leakage policies in the European Union: results for Austria," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 39(2), pages 233-260, May.
    3. Hertel, Thomas W. & Keeney, Roman & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2004. "Global Analysis of Agricultural Trade Liberalization: Assessing Model Validity," Conference papers 331270, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2008. "INDONESIA-E3: An Indonesian Applied General Equilibrium Model for Analyzing the Economy, Equity, and the Environment," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200804, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Sep 2008.
    5. Hermeling, Claudia & Klement, Jan Henrik & Koesler, Simon & Köhler, Jonathan & Klement, Dorothee, 2015. "Sailing into a dilemma," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 34-53.
    6. Aaron B. Gertz & James B. Davies & Samantha L. Black, 2019. "A CGE Framework for Modeling the Economics of Flooding and Recovery in a Major Urban Area," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(6), pages 1314-1341, June.
    7. Dai, Hancheng & Mischke, Peggy & Xie, Xuxuan & Xie, Yang & Masui, Toshihiko, 2016. "Closing the gap? Top-down versus bottom-up projections of China’s regional energy use and CO2 emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1355-1373.
    8. Sebastian Rausch and Valerie J. Karplus, 2014. "Markets versus Regulation: The Efficiency and Distributional Impacts of U.S. Climate Policy Proposals," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    9. Oliver Schenker & Simon Koesler & Andreas Löschel, 2018. "On the effects of unilateral environmental policy on offshoring in multi‐stage production processes," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(4), pages 1221-1256, November.
    10. Karplus, Valerie J. & Paltsev, Sergey & Babiker, Mustafa & Reilly, John M., 2013. "Should a vehicle fuel economy standard be combined with an economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions constraint? Implications for energy and climate policy in the United States," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 322-333.
    11. Koesler, Simon, 2014. "Specifying parameters in computable general equilibrium models using optimal fingerprint detection methods," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-092, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    12. Marilyne Huchet‐Bourdon & Esmaeil Pishbahar, 2009. "Armington Elasticities and Tariff Regime: An Application to European Union Rice Imports," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 586-603, September.
    13. Michael Plummer & Frank Harrigan & Fan Zhai & Patrick Messerlin, 2006. "The Doha Development Agenda: Asian Challenges and Prospects after the Ministerial Meeting in Hong Kong, China," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/8132, Sciences Po.
    14. Antimiani, Alessandro & Costantini, Valeria & Martini, Chiara & Salvatici, Luca & Tommasino, Maria Cristina, 2011. "Cooperative and non-cooperative solutions to carbon leakage," Conference papers 332096, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    15. repec:dar:wpaper:35491 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Willenbockel, Dirk, 2004. "Specification choice and robustness in CGE trade policy analysis with imperfect competition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 1065-1099, December.
    17. Roman Lokhov & Heinz Welsch, 2008. "Emissions trading between Russia and the European Union: a CGE analysis of potentials and impacts," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 9(1), pages 1-23, March.
    18. Michael Jakob & Jan Christoph Steckel & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2014. "Consumption- Versus Production-Based Emission Policies," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 297-318, October.
    19. Michael Plummer & Frank Harrigan & Fan Zhai & Patrick Messerlin, 2006. "The Doha Development Agenda: Asian Challenges and Prospects after the Ministerial Meeting in Hong Kong, China," SciencePo Working papers hal-03462128, HAL.
    20. Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré, 2021. "Calibrating Long-Term Trade Baselines in General Equilibrium," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Peter Dixon & Joseph Francois & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (ed.), POLICY ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY A Festschrift Celebrating Thomas Hertel, chapter 4, pages 97-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    21. Branger, Frédéric & Quirion, Philippe, 2014. "Would border carbon adjustments prevent carbon leakage and heavy industry competitiveness losses? Insights from a meta-analysis of recent economic studies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 29-39.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:123:y:2014:i:3:p:763-783. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.