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Fossil Fuel Supply, Leakage and the Effectiveness of Border Measures in Climate Policy

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  • Stefan Boeters

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  • Johannes Bollen

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Abstract

Understanding fossil fuel supply behaviour is crucial for interpreting carbon leakage and assessing the potential effectiveness of border measures in climate policy. In most computable general equilibrium models, this fossil fuel supply is derived from a constant elasticity of substitution production function, in which a natural resource is treated as a fixed factor. We show that this leads to endogenously decreasing supply elasticities and sharply increasing marginal leakage rates for large coalitions that have ambitious emissions targets, particularly when fuel exporters participate in the coalition. We propose an alternative production function that has a constant elasticity of fuel supply, which results in more stable leakage rates and a different share of trade-related leakage. The role of this model variation for the assessment of border measures in climate policy turns out to be limited. In those cases where the model versions differ most (i.e. large coalition, ambitious targets), border measures have a small effect anyway.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Boeters & Johannes Bollen, 2012. "Fossil Fuel Supply, Leakage and the Effectiveness of Border Measures in Climate Policy," CPB Discussion Paper 215, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpb:discus:215
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Dong, Yan & Whalley, John, 2012. "Joint non-OPEC carbon taxes and the transfer of OPEC monopoly rents," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 49-63.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bollen, Johannes & Brink, Corjan, 2014. "Air pollution policy in Europe: Quantifying the interaction with greenhouse gases and climate change policies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 202-215.
    2. Otto, Sander A.C. & Gernaat, David E.H.J. & Isaac, Morna & Lucas, Paul L. & van Sluisveld, Mariësse A.E. & van den Berg, Maarten & van Vliet, Jasper & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2015. "Impact of fragmented emission reduction regimes on the energy market and on CO2 emissions related to land use: A case study with China and the European Union as first movers," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 220-229.
    3. Böhringer, Christoph & Balistreri, Edward J. & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2012. "The role of border carbon adjustment in unilateral climate policy: Overview of an Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF 29)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S2), pages 97-110.
    4. Branger, Frédéric & Quirion, Philippe, 2014. "Would border carbon adjustments prevent carbon leakage and heavy industry competitiveness losses? Insights from a meta-analysis of recent economic studies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, pages 29-39.
    5. Michael Jakob & Jan Christoph Steckel & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2014. "Consumption- Versus Production-Based Emission Policies," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 297-318, October.
    6. Bollen, Johannes, 2015. "The value of air pollution co-benefits of climate policies: Analysis with a global sector-trade CGE model called WorldScan," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 178-191.
    7. Kathryn Daenzer & Ian Wing & Karen Fisher-Vanden, 2014. "Coal’s medium-run future under atmospheric greenhouse gas stabilization," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 763-783, April.
    8. Paroussos, Leonidas & Fragkos, Panagiotis & Capros, Pantelis & Fragkiadakis, Kostas, 2015. "Assessment of carbon leakage through the industry channel: The EU perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 204-219.
    9. Michael Jakob & Robert Marschinski & Michael Hübler, 2013. "Between a Rock and a Hard Place: A Trade-Theory Analysis of Leakage Under Production- and Consumption-Based Policies," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 56(1), pages 47-72, September.
    10. Elisa Lanzi & Ian Sue Wing, 2013. "Capital Malleability, Emission Leakage and the Cost of Partial Climate Policies: General Equilibrium Analysis of the European Union Emission Trading System," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 55(2), pages 257-289, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models

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