Shifting Armington trade preferences: A re-examination of the Mercosur–EU negotiations
This paper examines the ‘small share’ problem inherent within the constant elasticity of substitution Armington specification. As a de facto research tool in the quantitative trade literature, this structural bias plagues the results of numerous multi-region CGE studies. Kuiper and van Tongeren (2006) proposed a fusion of gravity and CGE specifications to remedy said bias, which the current paper further develops. With a pervasiveness of ‘small-share’ examples on Mercosur–European Union trade owing to the latter's restrictive tariff regime, the results reveal that significant additional trade led gains to Mercosur under a potential preferential trade agreement when compared with the standard Armington treatment.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006.
"The Log of Gravity,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
- Joao Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "The Log of Gravity," CEP Discussion Papers dp0701, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Santos Silva, J.M.C & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2005. "The Log of Gravity," CEPR Discussion Papers 5311, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Joao Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "The log of gravity," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3744, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Valentina Raimondi & Alessandro Olper, 2011. "Trade Elasticity, Gravity and Trade Liberalisation: Evidence from the Food Industry," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 525-550, 09.
- Martijn Burger & Frank van Oort & Gert-Jan Linders, 2009.
"On the Specification of the Gravity Model of Trade: Zeros, Excess Zeros and Zero-inflated Estimation,"
Spatial Economic Analysis,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 167-190.
- Burger, M.J. & van Oort, F.G. & Linders, G.J.M., 2009. "On the Specification of the Gravity Model of Trade: Zeros, Excess Zeros and Zero-Inflated Estimation," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2009-003-ORG, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
- Foster, Neil & Poeschl, Johannes & Stehrer, Robert, 2011.
"The impact of Preferential Trade Agreements on the margins of international trade,"
Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 84-97, March.
- Neil Foster-McGregor & Johannes Pöschl & Robert Stehrer, 2010. "The Impact of Preferential Trade Agreements on the Margins of International Trade," wiiw Working Papers 70, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
- Muhammad Ullah & Kazuo Inaba, 2012. "Impact of RTA and PTA on Bangladesh’s Export: Application of a Gravity Model," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 445-460, December.
- George Philippidis & Helena Resano-Ezcaray & Ana I. Sanjuán-López, 2013. "Capturing zero-trade values in gravity equations of trade: an analysis of protectionism in agro-food sectors," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(2), pages 141-159, 03.
- Brown, Drusilla K., 1987. "Tariffs, the terms of trade, and national product differentiation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 503-526.
- Melitz, Jacques, 2007.
"North, South and distance in the gravity model,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 971-991, May.
- J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2009.
"Further Simulation Evidence on the Performance of the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimator,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0933, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Santos Silva, J.M.C. & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2011. "Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 220-222, August.
- Joao Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2009. "Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 25506, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Thomas L. Vollrath & Mark J. Gehlhar & Charles B. Hallahan, 2009. "Bilateral Import Protection, Free Trade Agreements, and Other Factors Influencing Trade Flows in Agriculture and Clothing," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 298-317.
- World Bank, 2011. "World Development Indicators 2011," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2315.
- Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984.
"Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Applications to Poisson Models,"
Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 701-20, May.
- Gourieroux Christian & Monfort Alain & Trognon A, 1982. "Pseudo maximum lilelihood methods : applications to poisson models," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8203, CEPREMAP.
- Morkre, Morris & Tarr, David G., 1993.
"Reforming Hungarian agricultural trade policy : a quantitative evaluation,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
1185, The World Bank.
- Morris Morkre & David Tarr, 1995. "Reforming Hungarian agricultural trade policy: A quantitative evaluation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 131(1), pages 106-131, March.
- Lota D. Tamini & Jean-Philippe Gervais & Bruno Larue, 2010. "Trade liberalisation effects on agricultural goods at different processing stages," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 37(4), pages 453-477, December.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004.
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
- Renato G. Flores & Masakazy Watanuki, 2008. "Integration options for Mercosur : a quantitative analysis by the AMIDA model," INTAL Working Papers 1474, Inter-American Development Bank, INTAL.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003.
"Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 485, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Felicitas, Nowak-Lehmann D. & Horsewood, Nicholas, 2009. "Are regional trading agreements beneficial?: Static and dynamic panel gravity models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 46-65, March.
- Arie Arnon & Avia Spivak & J. Weinblatt, 1996. "The Potential For Trade Between Israel, The Palestinians and Jordan," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 113-134, 01.
- Keeney, Roman & Thomas Hertel, 2005. "GTAP-AGR : A Framework for Assessing the Implications of Multilateral Changes in Agricultural Policies," GTAP Technical Papers 1869, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-81, August.
- Diao, Xinshen & Diaz-Bonilla, Eugenio & Robinson, Sherman, 2002.
"Scenarios for trade integration in the Americas,"
TMD discussion papers
90, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Márquez-Ramos, Laura & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Suárez-Burguet, Celestino, 2012.
"Trade policy versus trade facilitation: An application using good old OLS,"
Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal,
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 6, pages 1-38.
- Márquez-Ramos, Laura & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Suárez-Burguet, Celestino, 2011. "Trade policy versus trade facilitation: An application using Good Old OLS," Economics Discussion Papers 2011-38, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May.
- George Philippidis & Elisavet Kitou, 2012. "Quantifying opportunities and threats: examining the Canada--EU trade negotiations," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 301-320, December.
- Renato G. Flôres Jr. & Masakazu Watanuki, 2008. "Integration Options for MERCOSUR: A Quantitative Analysis by the AMIDA Model," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 9287, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Tamini, Lota D. & Doyon, Maurice & Simon, Rodrigue, 2012. "Analyzing trade liberalization effect in egg sector using a dynamic gravity model," MPRA Paper 39315, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-33, March.
- Huff, Karen & Thomas W. Hertel, 2001. "Decomposing Welfare Changes in GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 308, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Lota D. Tamini & Maurice Doyon & Rodrigue Simon, 2012. "Analyzing Trade Liberalization Effect in the Egg Sector Using a Dynamic Gravity Model," Cahiers de recherche CREATE 2012-6, CREATE.
- A. Colin Cameron & Pravin K. Trivedi, 2010. "Microeconometrics Using Stata, Revised Edition," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, number musr.
- Yener Kandogan, 2008. "Consistent Estimates of Regional Blocs' Trade Effects," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 301-314, 05.
- Pascal L. Ghazalian & Bruno Larue & Jean-Philippe Gervais, 2009. "Exporting to new destinations and the effects of tariffs: the case of meat commodities," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(6), pages 701-714, November.
- Németh, Gabriella & Szabó, László & Ciscar, Juan-Carlos, 2011. "Estimation of Armington elasticities in a CGE economy-energy-environment model for Europe," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1993-1999, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:40:y:2014:i:c:p:21-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.