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Agriculture, forestry, and other land-use emissions in Latin America


  • Calvin, Katherine V.
  • Beach, Robert
  • Gurgel, Angelo
  • Labriet, Maryse
  • Loboguerrero Rodriguez, Ana Maria


Nearly 40% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Latin America were from agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) in 2008, more than double the global fraction of AFOLU emissions. In this article, we investigate the future trajectory of AFOLU GHG emissions in Latin America, with and without efforts to mitigate, using a multi-model comparison approach. We find significant uncertainty in future emissions with and without climate policy. This uncertainty is due to differences in a variety of assumptions including (1) the role of bioenergy, (2) where and how bioenergy is produced, (3) the availability of afforestation options in climate mitigation policy, and (4) N2O and CH4 emission intensity. With climate policy, these differences in assumptions can lead to significant variance in mitigation potential, with three models indicating reductions in AFOLU GHG emissions and one model indicating modest increases in AFOLU GHG emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Calvin, Katherine V. & Beach, Robert & Gurgel, Angelo & Labriet, Maryse & Loboguerrero Rodriguez, Ana Maria, 2016. "Agriculture, forestry, and other land-use emissions in Latin America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 615-624.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:56:y:2016:i:c:p:615-624
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2015.03.020

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Katherine Calvin & Marshall Wise & Page Kyle & Pralit Patel & Leon Clarke & Jae Edmonds, 2014. "Trade-offs of different land and bioenergy policies on the path to achieving climate targets," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 691-704, April.
    2. Rose, Steven K. & Ahammad, Helal & Eickhout, Bas & Fisher, Brian & Kurosawa, Atsushi & Rao, Shilpa & Riahi, Keywan & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2012. "Land-based mitigation in climate stabilization," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 365-380.
    3. Steven Rose & Elmar Kriegler & Ruben Bibas & Katherine Calvin & Alexander Popp & Detlef Vuuren & John Weyant, 2014. "Bioenergy in energy transformation and climate management," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 477-493, April.
    4. Alexander Popp & Steven Rose & Katherine Calvin & Detlef Vuuren & Jan Dietrich & Marshall Wise & Elke Stehfest & Florian Humpenöder & Page Kyle & Jasper Vliet & Nico Bauer & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Dav, 2014. "Land-use transition for bioenergy and climate stabilization: model comparison of drivers, impacts and interactions with other land use based mitigation options," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 495-509, April.
    5. Beach, Robert H. & Birur, Dileep K. & Davis, Lauren M. & Ross, Martin T., 2011. "A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis Of U.S. Biofuels Production," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103965, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
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    2. van der Zwaan, Bob & Kober, Tom & Calderon, Silvia & Clarke, Leon & Daenzer, Katie & Kitous, Alban & Labriet, Maryse & Lucena, André F.P. & Octaviano, Claudia & Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolas, 2016. "Energy technology roll-out for climate change mitigation: A multi-model study for Latin America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 526-542.
    3. N. B. Melnikov & A. P. Gruzdev & M. G. Dalton & M. Weitzel & B. C. O’Neill, 2021. "Parallel Extended Path Method for Solving Perfect Foresight Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(2), pages 517-534, August.
    4. Lucena, André F.P. & Clarke, Leon & Schaeffer, Roberto & Szklo, Alexandre & Rochedo, Pedro R.R. & Nogueira, Larissa P.P. & Daenzer, Kathryn & Gurgel, Angelo & Kitous, Alban & Kober, Tom, 2016. "Climate policy scenarios in Brazil: A multi-model comparison for energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 564-574.
    5. Vo, Long Hai & Le, Thai-Ha, 2021. "Eatery, energy, environment and economic system, 1970–2017: Understanding volatility spillover patterns in a global sample," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    6. van Ruijven, Bas J. & Daenzer, Katie & Fisher-Vanden, Karen & Kober, Tom & Paltsev, Sergey & Beach, Robert H. & Calderon, Silvia Liliana & Calvin, Kate & Labriet, Maryse & Kitous, Alban & Lucena, Andr, 2016. "Baseline projections for Latin America: base-year assumptions, key drivers and greenhouse emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 499-512.
    7. Juan Ortiz & Francis Dube & Pablo Neira & Marcelo Panichini & Neal B. Stolpe & Erick Zagal & Pedro A. Martínez-Hernández, 2020. "Soil Quality Changes within a (Nothofagus obliqua) Forest Under Silvopastoral Management in the Andes Mountain Range, South Central Chile," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-18, August.
    8. Elmar Kriegler & Ioanna Mouratiadou & Gunnar Luderer & Jae Edmonds & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2016. "Introduction to the RoSE special issue on the impact of economic growth and fossil fuel availability on climate protection," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(1), pages 1-6, May.
    9. Davis, Matthew & Ahiduzzaman, Md. & Kumar, Amit, 2018. "How will Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions change by 2050? A disaggregated analysis of past and future greenhouse gas emissions using bottom-up energy modelling and Sankey diagrams," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 754-786.

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    More about this item


    Agriculture and land use; Greenhouse gas emissions; Latin America;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies


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