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Peaking China’s CO 2 Emissions: Trends to 2030 and Mitigation Potential

Author

Listed:
  • Qiang Liu

    () (National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, Beijing 100038, China)

  • Alun Gu

    () (Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

  • Fei Teng

    () (Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

  • Ranping Song

    () (World Resource Institute, Washington, DC 20002, USA)

  • Yi Chen

    () (National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, Beijing 100038, China)

Abstract

China has submitted its nationally determined contribution to peak its energy-related emissions around 2030. To understand how China might develop its economy while controlling CO 2 emissions, this study surveys a number of recent modeling scenarios that project the country’s economic growth, energy mix, and associated emissions until 2050. Our analysis suggests that China’s CO 2 emissions will continue to grow until 2040 or 2050 and will approximately double their 2010 level without additional policy intervention. The alternative scenario, however, suggests that peaking CO 2 emissions around 2030 requires the emission growth rate to be reduced by 2% below the reference level. This step would result in a plateau in China’s emissions from 2020 to 2030. This paper also proposed a deep de-carbonization pathway for China that is consistent with China’s goal of peaking emissions by around 2030, which can best be achieved through a combination of improvements in energy and carbon intensities. Our analysis also indicated that the potential for energy intensity decline will be limited over time. Thus, the peaking will be largely dependent on the share of non-fossil fuel energy in primary energy consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiang Liu & Alun Gu & Fei Teng & Ranping Song & Yi Chen, 2017. "Peaking China’s CO 2 Emissions: Trends to 2030 and Mitigation Potential," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(2), pages 1-22, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:2:p:209-:d:90084
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:eneeco:v:70:y:2018:i:c:p:45-60 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:eee:energy:v:142:y:2018:i:c:p:1023-1039 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    emission peaking; China; mitigation;

    JEL classification:

    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q49 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Other

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