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The Future Trajectory of US CO2 Emissions: The Role of State vs. Aggregate Information

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  • Auffhammer, Maximilian
  • Steinhauser, Ralf

Abstract

This paper provides comparisons of a variety of time series methods for short run forecasts of the main greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, for the United States, using a recently released state level data set from 1960-2001. We test the out-of-sample performance of univariate and multivariate forecasting models by aggregating state level forecasts versus forecasting the aggregate directly. We find evidence that forecasting the disaggregate series and accounting for spatial effects drastically improves forecasting performance under Root Mean Squared Forecast Error Loss. Based on the in-sample observations we attempt to explain the emergence of voluntary efforts by states to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We find evidence that states with decreasing per capita emissions and a "greener" median voter are more likely to push towards voluntary cutbacks in emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Auffhammer, Maximilian & Steinhauser, Ralf, 2006. "The Future Trajectory of US CO2 Emissions: The Role of State vs. Aggregate Information," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt4878j5w0, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt4878j5w0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zellner, Arnold & Chen, Bin, 2001. "Bayesian Modeling Of Economies And Data Requirements," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(05), pages 673-700, November.
    2. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Selden, Thomas M., 1995. "Stoking the fires? CO2 emissions and economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 85-101, May.
    3. Daniel L. Millimet & John A. List & Thanasis Stengos, 2003. "The Environmental Kuznets Curve: Real Progress or Misspecified Models?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1038-1047, November.
    4. Maximilian Auffhammer & Bernard Morzuch & John Stranlund, 2005. "Production of Chlorofluorocarbons in Anticipation of the Montreal Protocol," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 30(4), pages 377-391, April.
    5. Murdoch, James C. & Sandler, Todd, 1997. "The voluntary provision of a pure public good: The case of reduced CFC emissions and the Montreal Protocol," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 331-349, February.
    6. Giacomini, Raffaella & Granger, Clive W. J., 2004. "Aggregation of space-time processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1-2), pages 7-26.
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    Cited by:

    1. Auffhammer, Maximilian & Carson, Richard T., 2008. "Forecasting the path of China's CO2 emissions using province-level information," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 229-247, May.
    2. Qiang Liu & Alun Gu & Fei Teng & Ranping Song & Yi Chen, 2017. "Peaking China’s CO 2 Emissions: Trends to 2030 and Mitigation Potential," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(2), pages 1-22, February.

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