IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/ucbecw/7197.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forecasting the Path of China's CO2 Emissions: Offsetting Kyoto - and Then Some

Author

Listed:
  • Auffhammer, Maximilian
  • Carson, Richard T.

Abstract

Our results suggest that the anticipated path of China's Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions has dramatically increased over the last five years. The magnitude of the projected increase in Chinese emissions out to 2015 is several times larger than reductions embodied in the Kyoto Protocol. Our estimates are based on a unique provincial level panel data set from the Chinese Environmental Protection Agency. This dataset contains considerably more information relevant to the path of likely Chinese greenhouse gas emissions than national level time series models currently in use. Model selection criteria clearly reject the popular static environmental Kuznets curve specification in favor of a class of dynamic models with spatial dependence.

Suggested Citation

  • Auffhammer, Maximilian & Carson, Richard T., 2006. "Forecasting the Path of China's CO2 Emissions: Offsetting Kyoto - and Then Some," CUDARE Working Papers 7197, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:ucbecw:7197
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/7197/files/wp060971.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Auffhammer, Maximilian & Steinhauser, Ralf, 2006. "The Future Trajectory of US CO2 Emissions: The Role of State vs. Aggregate Information," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt4878j5w0, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    2. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Selden, Thomas M., 1995. "Stoking the fires? CO2 emissions and economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 85-101, May.
    3. Panayotou, Theodore & Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Zwane, Alix Peterson, 2002. "Compensation for "Meaningful Participation" in Climate Change Control: A Modest Proposal and Empirical Analysis," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 437-454, May.
    4. Arrow, Kenneth & Bolin, Bert & Costanza, Robert & Dasgupta, Partha & Folke, Carl & Holling, C.S. & Jansson, Bengt-Owe & Levin, Simon & Mäler, Karl-Göran & Perrings, Charles & Pimentel, David, 1996. "Economic growth, carrying capacity, and the environment," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(01), pages 104-110, February.
    5. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2003. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, February.
    6. Kejun Jiang & Xiulian Hu, 2006. "Energy demand and emissions in 2030 in China: scenarios and policy options," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 7(3), pages 233-250, September.
    7. Richard Schmalensee & Thomas M. Stoker & Ruth A. Judson, 1998. "World Carbon Dioxide Emissions: 1950-2050," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 15-27, February.
    8. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    9. CARSON, RICHARd T. & JEON, YONGIL & McCUBBIN, DONALD R., 1997. "The relationship between air pollution emissions and income: US Data," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(04), pages 433-450, November.
    10. Costanza, Robert, 1995. "Economic growth, carrying capacity, and the environment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 89-90, November.
    11. Zhang, Zhongxiang, 2000. "Decoupling China's Carbon Emissions Increase from Economic Growth: An Economic Analysis and Policy Implications," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 739-752, April.
    12. ZhongXiang Zhang, 1998. "The Economics of Energy Policy in China," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1291, April.
    13. Maddison, David, 2006. "Environmental Kuznets curves: A spatial econometric approach," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 218-230, March.
    14. Sinton, Jonathan E. & Levine, Mark D., 1994. "Changing energy intensity in Chinese industry : The relatively importance of structural shift and intensity change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 239-255, March.
    15. Giacomini, Raffaella & Granger, Clive W. J., 2004. "Aggregation of space-time processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1-2), pages 7-26.
    16. Sinton, Jonathan E. & Fridley, David G., 2000. "What goes up: recent trends in China's energy consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 671-687, August.
    17. Scott Marchi & James Hamilton, 2006. "Assessing the Accuracy of Self-Reported Data: an Evaluation of the Toxics Release Inventory," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 57-76, January.
    18. Agras, Jean & Chapman, Duane, 1999. "A dynamic approach to the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 267-277, February.
    19. Susmita Dasgupta & Benoit Laplante & Hua Wang & David Wheeler, 2002. "Confronting the Environmental Kuznets Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 147-168, Winter.
    20. Zhang, Chi & May, Michael M. & Heller, Thomas C., 2001. "Impact on global warming of development and structural changes in the electricity sector of Guangdong Province, China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 179-203, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. James Bushnell & Carla Peterman & Catherine Wolfram, 2007. "Local Solutions to Global Problems: Policy Choice and Regulatory Jurisdiction," NBER Working Papers 13472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ucbecw:7197. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dabrkus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.