IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chieco/v23y2012i2p371-384.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic development and carbon dioxide emissions in China: Provincial panel data analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Du, Limin
  • Wei, Chu
  • Cai, Shenghua

Abstract

This paper investigates the driving forces, emission trends and reduction potential of China's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions based on a provincial panel data set covering the years 1995 to 2009. A series of static and dynamic panel data models are estimated, and then an optimal forecasting model selected by out-of-sample criteria is used to forecast the emission trend and reduction potential up to 2020. The estimation results show that economic development, technology progress and industry structure are the most important factors affecting China's CO2 emissions, while the impacts of energy consumption structure, trade openness and urbanization level are negligible. The inverted U-shaped relationship between per capita CO2 emissions and economic development level is not strongly supported by the estimation results. The impact of capital adjustment speed is significant. Scenario simulations further show that per capita and aggregate CO2 emissions of China will increase continuously up to 2020 under any of the three scenarios developed in this study, but the reduction potential is large.

Suggested Citation

  • Du, Limin & Wei, Chu & Cai, Shenghua, 2012. "Economic development and carbon dioxide emissions in China: Provincial panel data analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 371-384.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:23:y:2012:i:2:p:371-384
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2012.02.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1043951X12000077
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chieco.2012.02.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ang, B. W. & Pandiyan, G., 1997. "Decomposition of energy-induced CO2 emissions in manufacturing," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 363-374, July.
    2. Jiang, Yi & Lin, Tun & Zhuang, Juzhong, 2008. "Environmental Kuznets Curves in the People’s Republic of China: turning points and regional differences," MPRA Paper 21252, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can & Chen, Jining & Wang, Ke & Zhang, Ying & Lu, Xuedu, 2008. "Comparison of CO2 emission scenarios and mitigation opportunities in China's five sectors in 2020," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1181-1194, March.
    4. Stern,Nicholas, 2007. "The Economics of Climate Change," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521700801.
    5. Siqi Zheng & Rui Wang & Edward L. Glaeser & Matthew E. Kahn, 2011. "The greenness of China: household carbon dioxide emissions and urban development," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 761-792, September.
    6. Zhang, Zhongxiang, 2000. "Decoupling China's Carbon Emissions Increase from Economic Growth: An Economic Analysis and Policy Implications," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 739-752, April.
    7. Wu, Libo & Kaneko, Shinji & Matsuoka, Shunji, 2005. "Driving forces behind the stagnancy of China's energy-related CO2 emissions from 1996 to 1999: the relative importance of structural change, intensity change and scale change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 319-335, February.
    8. Auffhammer, Maximilian & Carson, Richard T., 2008. "Forecasting the path of China's CO2 emissions using province-level information," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 229-247, May.
    9. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Selden, Thomas M., 1995. "Stoking the fires? CO2 emissions and economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 85-101, May.
    10. Gene M. Grossman & Alan B. Krueger, 1995. "Economic Growth and the Environment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 353-377.
    11. Susmita Dasgupta & Benoit Laplante & Hua Wang & David Wheeler, 2002. "Confronting the Environmental Kuznets Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 147-168, Winter.
    12. Song, Tao & Zheng, Tingguo & Tong, Lianjun, 2008. "An empirical test of the environmental Kuznets curve in China: A panel cointegration approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 381-392, September.
    13. Lantz, V. & Feng, Q., 2006. "Assessing income, population, and technology impacts on CO2 emissions in Canada: Where's the EKC?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 229-238, May.
    14. Wang, Can & Chen, Jining & Zou, Ji, 2005. "Decomposition of energy-related CO2 emission in China: 1957–2000," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 73-83.
    15. Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can & Wang, Ke & Zhang, Ying & Chen, Jining, 2007. "Scenario analysis on CO2 emissions reduction potential in China's electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6445-6456, December.
    16. Tucker, Michael, 1995. "Carbon dioxide emissions and global GDP," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 215-223, December.
    17. Ang, James B., 2009. "CO2 emissions, research and technology transfer in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(10), pages 2658-2665, August.
    18. Joseph E. Aldy, 2007. "Energy and Carbon Dynamics at Advanced Stages of Development: An Analysis of the U.S. States, 1960-1999," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 91-112.
    19. Bartz, Sherry & Kelly, David L., 2008. "Economic growth and the environment: Theory and facts," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 115-149, May.
    20. Kejun Jiang & Toshihiko Masui & Tsuneyuki Morita & Yuzuru Matsuoka, 1999. "Long-term emission scenarios for China," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 2(4), pages 267-287, December.
    21. Gilbert E. Metcalf, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of Energy Intensity and Its Determinants at the State Level," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-26.
    22. Maddison, David, 2006. "Environmental Kuznets curves: A spatial econometric approach," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 218-230, March.
    23. Kiviet, Jan F., 1995. "On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July.
    24. Kejun Jiang & Xiulian Hu, 2006. "Energy demand and emissions in 2030 in China: scenarios and policy options," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 7(3), pages 233-250, September.
    25. Richard Schmalensee & Thomas M. Stoker & Ruth A. Judson, 1998. "World Carbon Dioxide Emissions: 1950-2050," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 15-27, February.
    26. He, Kebin & Huo, Hong & Zhang, Qiang & He, Dongquan & An, Feng & Wang, Michael & Walsh, Michael P., 2005. "Oil consumption and CO2 emissions in China's road transport: current status, future trends, and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 1499-1507, August.
    27. Liang, Qiao-Mei & Fan, Ying & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2007. "Multi-regional input-output model for regional energy requirements and CO2 emissions in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1685-1700, March.
    28. Liu, Lan-Cui & Fan, Ying & Wu, Gang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2007. "Using LMDI method to analyze the change of China's industrial CO2 emissions from final fuel use: An empirical analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5892-5900, November.
    29. Zhang, Ming & Mu, Hailin & Ning, Yadong, 2009. "Accounting for energy-related CO2 emission in China, 1991-2006," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 767-773, March.
    30. Ang, B.W. & Zhang, F.Q., 2000. "A survey of index decomposition analysis in energy and environmental studies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 25(12), pages 1149-1176.
    31. Jalil, Abdul & Mahmud, Syed F., 2009. "Environment Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions: A cointegration analysis for China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5167-5172, December.
    32. Feng, Kuishuang & Hubacek, Klaus & Guan, Dabo, 2009. "Lifestyles, technology and CO2 emissions in China: A regional comparative analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 145-154, November.
    33. Wang, Ke & Wang, Can & Lu, Xuedu & Chen, Jining, 2007. "Scenario analysis on CO2 emissions reduction potential in China's iron and steel industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2320-2335, April.
    34. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    35. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
    36. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    37. Garbaccio, Richard F. & Ho, Mun S. & Jorgenson, Dale W., 1999. "Controlling carbon emissions in China," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 493-518, October.
    38. Fan, Ying & Liu, Lan-Cui & Wu, Gang & Tsai, Hsien-Tang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2007. "Changes in carbon intensity in China: Empirical findings from 1980-2003," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3-4), pages 683-691, May.
    39. Zhang, Ming & Mu, Hailin & Ning, Yadong & Song, Yongchen, 2009. "Decomposition of energy-related CO2 emission over 1991-2006 in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(7), pages 2122-2128, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hao, Yu & Zhang, Zong-Yong & Liao, Hua & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2015. "China’s farewell to coal: A forecast of coal consumption through 2020," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 444-455.
    2. Wang, Shaojian & Fang, Chuanglin & Guan, Xingliang & Pang, Bo & Ma, Haitao, 2014. "Urbanisation, energy consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions in China: A panel data analysis of China’s provinces," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 738-749.
    3. Aslanidis Nektarios, 2009. "Environmental Kuznets curves for carbon emissions: A critical survey," wp.comunite 0051, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
    4. He, Jie, 2010. "What is the role of openness for China's aggregate industrial SO2 emission?: A structural analysis based on the Divisia decomposition method," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(4), pages 868-886, February.
    5. Nektarios Aslanidis, 2009. "Environmental Kuznets Curves for Carbon Emissions: A Critical Survey," Working Papers 2009.75, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    6. Miguel Rodríguez & Yolanda Pena-Boquete, 2013. "Mishandling carbon intensities," Working Papers 1302, Universidade de Vigo, Departamento de Economía Aplicada.
    7. Auffhammer, Maximilian & Carson, Richard T., 2008. "Forecasting the path of China's CO2 emissions using province-level information," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 229-247, May.
    8. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Gloria Claudio-Quiroga & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2019. "CO2 Emissions and GDP: Evidence from China," CESifo Working Paper Series 7881, CESifo.
    9. Moutinho, Victor & Moreira, António Carrizo & Silva, Pedro Miguel, 2015. "The driving forces of change in energy-related CO2 emissions in Eastern, Western, Northern and Southern Europe: The LMDI approach to decomposition analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1485-1499.
    10. Shao, Shuai & Yang, Lili & Yu, Mingbo & Yu, Mingliang, 2011. "Estimation, characteristics, and determinants of energy-related industrial CO2 emissions in Shanghai (China), 1994-2009," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6476-6494, October.
    11. Atwi, Majed & Barberán, Ramón & Mur, Jesús & Angulo, Ana, 2018. "CO2 Kuznets Curve Revisited: From Cross-Sections to Panel Data Models," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 40, pages 169-196.
    12. Wang, Yafei & Liang, Sai, 2013. "Carbon dioxide mitigation target of China in 2020 and key economic sectors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 90-96.
    13. Aslanidis, Nektarios, 2009. "Environmental Kuznets Curves for Carbon Emissions: A Critical Survey," Working Papers 2072/15847, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    14. Xu, X.Y. & Ang, B.W., 2013. "Index decomposition analysis applied to CO2 emission studies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 313-329.
    15. Jean-Thomas Bernard & Michael Gavin & Lynda Khalaf & Marcel Voia, 2015. "Environmental Kuznets Curve: Tipping Points, Uncertainty and Weak Identification," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 60(2), pages 285-315, February.
    16. Ouyang, Xiaoling & Lin, Boqiang, 2015. "An analysis of the driving forces of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in China’s industrial sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 838-849.
    17. Zhang, Yan & Zhang, Jinyun & Yang, Zhifeng & Li, Shengsheng, 2011. "Regional differences in the factors that influence China’s energy-related carbon emissions, and potential mitigation strategies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7712-7718.
    18. Yan Song & Ming Zhang & Shuang Dai, 2015. "Study on China’s energy-related CO 2 emission at provincial level," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(1), pages 89-100, May.
    19. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Da, Ya-Bin, 2015. "The decomposition of energy-related carbon emission and its decoupling with economic growth in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1255-1266.
    20. Robaina Alves, Margarita & Moutinho, Victor, 2013. "Decomposition analysis and Innovative Accounting Approach for energy-related CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions intensity over 1996–2009 in Portugal," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 775-787.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CO2 emissions; Panel data models; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:23:y:2012:i:2:p:371-384. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/chieco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.