Aggregation of space-time processes
In this paper we compare the relative efficiency of different methods of forecasting the aggregate of spatially correlated variables. Small sample simulations confirm the asymptotic result that improved forecasting performance can be obtained by imposing a priori constraints on the amount of spatial correlation in the system. One way to do so is to aggregate forecasts from a Space-Time Autoregressive model (Cliff et al., 1975), which offers a solution to the 'curse of dimensionality' that arises when forecasting with VARs. We also show that ignoring spatial correlation, even when it is weak, leads to highly inaccurate forecasts. Finally, if the system satisfies a 'poolability' condition, there is a benefit in forecasting the aggregate variable directly.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kohn, Robert, 1982. "When is an aggregate of a time series efficiently forecast by its past?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 337-349, April.
- Brown, Bryan W. & Mariano, Roberto S., 1989. "Predictors in Dynamic Nonlinear Models: Large-Sample Behavior," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(03), pages 430-452, December.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
- Patrick E. Brown & Gareth O. Roberts & Kjetil F. Kåresen & Stefano Tonellato, 2000. "Blur-generated non-separable space-time models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 62(4), pages 847-860.
- F Stetzer, 1982. "Specifying Weights in Spatial Forecasting Models: The Results of Some Experiments," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 14(5), pages 571-584, May.
- Tobias, Justin & Zellner, Arnold, 2000.
"A Note on Aggregation, Disaggregation and Forecasting Performance,"
Staff General Research Papers Archive
12024, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Zellner, Arnold & Tobias, Justin, 2004. "A Note on Aggregation, Disaggregation and Forecasting Performance," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12371, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983. "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions," NBER Working Papers 1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Baillie, Richard T., 1980. "Predictions from ARMAX models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 365-374, April.
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Pierse, Richard G & Kumar, Mohan S, 1989. "Econometric Analysis of Aggregation in the Context of Linear Prediction Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 861-888, July.
- M. H. Pesaran & R. G. Pierse & M. S. Kumar, 1988. "Econometric Analysis of Aggregation in the Context of Linear Prediction Models," UCLA Economics Working Papers 485, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1987. "Implications of Aggregation with Common Factors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(02), pages 208-222, April.
- F Stetzer, 1982. "Specifying weights in spatial forecasting models: the results of some experiments," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 14(5), pages 571-584, May.
- Pinkse, Joris & Slade, Margaret E., 1998. "Contracting in space: An application of spatial statistics to discrete-choice models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 125-154, July.
- Aigner, Dennis J & Goldfeld, Stephen M, 1974. "Estimation and Prediction from Aggregate Data when Aggregates are Measured More Accurately than Their Components," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(1), pages 113-134, January.
- Bronars, Stephen G. & Jansen, Dennis W., 1987. "The geographic distribution of unemployment rates in the U.S. : A spatial-time series analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 251-279, November.
- Hirotugu Akaike, 1969. "Fitting autoregressive models for prediction," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 21(1), pages 243-247, December.
- Hall, Alastair R, 1994. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series with Pretest Data-Based Model Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 461-470, October. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:118:y:2004:i:1-2:p:7-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.