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Aggregating Phillips curves

Author

Listed:
  • Jean Imbs
  • Eric Jondeau
  • Florian Pelgrin

    (University of Lausanne public)

Abstract

Since it burst onto the scene of mainstream monetary economics, the New Neo-Classical Phillips Curve has been the focus of two important empirical debates. First, to what extent properly measured marginal costs affect inflation dynamics. Second, to what extent purely forward looking inflation can be reconciled with the data. In this paper, we show heterogeneity in the pricing behavior of firms, matters for both issues. If pricing is heterogeneous, any estimation that ignores the issue – whether based on GMM techniques, or on Maximum Likelihood Estimators – is flawed, to an extent that increases with the correlation between aggregate and disaggregate price dynamics. We show the direction of the bias depends on the estimator, and is not the same for marginal costs or for expected inflation. In particular, under plausible parameter values, (homogeneous) Maximum Likelihood estimators induce a negative bias on the effects of marginal costs, but a positive one on the importance of inflation dynamics. In contrast, (homogeneous) GMM estimators induce a negative bias on marginal costs, yet a negative one as well on inflation dynamics. These are derived analytically. We use sectoral quarterly French data on prices and marginal costs to confirm the magnitude and direction of these biases in the data as well. These data also motivate our parametrization. This provides a rationale for the discrepancy of results in the literature according to the estimation method. Specifically, our French data illustrate the importance of the issue within one specific economy. More generally, and perhaps most importantly, our analytics provide a toolkit with which to gauge the magnitude and direction of an aggregation bias on the basis of any disaggregated data.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean Imbs & Eric Jondeau & Florian Pelgrin, 2006. "Aggregating Phillips curves," 2006 Meeting Papers 640, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed006:640
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    3. Milda Norkute, 2015. "Can the sectoral New Keynesian Phillips curve explain inflation dynamics in the Euro Area?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1191-1216, December.
    4. Kapetanios, George & Price, Simon & Tasiou, Menelaos & Ventouri, Alexia, 2021. "State-level wage Phillips curves," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 1-11.
    5. Markus Knell & Alfred Stiglbauer, 2009. "The Impact of Reference Norms on Inflation Persistence When Wages are Staggered," Working Papers 153, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    6. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko & Norman R. Swanson, 2010. "International evidence on the efficacy of new-Keynesian models of inflation persistence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 31-54.
    7. Stefano Eusepi & Bart Hobijn & Andrea Tambalotti, 2011. "CONDI: A Cost-of-Nominal-Distortions Index," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 53-91, July.
    8. Cagliarini, Adam & Robinson, Tim & Tran, Allen, 2011. "Reconciling microeconomic and macroeconomic estimates of price stickiness," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 102-120, March.
    9. Martina Cecioni, 2010. "Firm entry, competitive pressures and the US inflation dynamics," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 773, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Kalim Hyder & Stephen G. Hall, 2020. "Estimates of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Pakistan," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 871-886, August.
    11. Dhyne, Emmanuel & Fuss, Catherine & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Sevestre, Patrick, 2011. "Lumpy Price Adjustments: A Microeconometric Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(4), pages 529-540.
    12. Petrella, Ivan & Santoro, Emiliano, 2012. "Inflation dynamics and real marginal costs: New evidence from U.S. manufacturing industries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 779-794.
    13. Borek Vašícek, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Four Central European Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 47(5), pages 71-100, September.
    14. Fröhling, Annette & Lommatzsch, Kirsten, 2011. "Output sensitivity of inflation in the euro area: Indirect evidence from disaggregated consumer prices," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,25, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Alvarez González, Luis Julián, 2008. "What Do Micro Price Data Tell Us on the Validity of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 2, pages 1-36.
    16. Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2010. "A new test of the inflation-real marginal cost relationship: ARDL bounds approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 122-125, August.
    17. Carlos Carvalho & Niels Arne Dam, 2009. "Estimating the cross-sectional distribution of price stickiness from aggregate data," Staff Reports 419, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    18. Felipe Schwartzman & Carlos Carvalho, 2008. "Heterogeneous Price Setting Behavior and Monetary Non-neutrality: Some General Results," 2008 Meeting Papers 1040, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Mumtaz, Haroon & Zabczyk, Pawel & Ellis, Colin, 2009. "What lies beneath: what can disaggregated data tell us about the behaviour of prices?," Bank of England working papers 364, Bank of England.

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    Keywords

    Inflation; New Keynesian Phillips curve; aggregation; GMM; Maximum likelihood;
    All these keywords.

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    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

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