IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Aggregating Phillips Curves

  • Imbs, Jean
  • Jondeau, Eric
  • Pelgrin, Florian

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve is at the centre of two raging empirical debates. First, how can purely forward looking pricing account for the observed persistence in aggregate inflation. Second, price-setting responds to movements in marginal costs, which should therefore be the driving force to observed inflation dynamics. This is not always the case in typical estimations. In this paper, we show how heterogeneity in pricing behaviour is relevant to both questions. We detail the conditions under which imposing homogeneity results in overestimating a backward-looking component in (aggregate) inflation, and underestimating the importance of (aggregate) marginal costs for (aggregate) inflation. We provide intuition for the direction of these biases, and verify them in French data with information on prices and marginal costs at the industry level. We show that the apparent discrepancy in the estimated duration of nominal rigidities, as implied from aggregate or microeconomic data, can be fully attributable to a heterogeneity bias.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=6184
Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6184.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Mar 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6184
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.

Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820

Order Information: Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Pesaran, M Hashem & Pierse, Richard G & Lee, Kevin C, 1994. "Choice between Disaggregate and Aggregate Specifications Estimated by Instrumental Variables Methods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(1), pages 11-21, January.
  2. Haroon Mumtaz & Jean Imbs & Morten O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2003. "PPP Strikes Back; Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Working Papers 03/68, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Kevin X. D. Huang & Zheng Liu, 2001. "Input-Output Structure and Nominal Staggering: The Persistence Problem Revisited," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 145, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  4. Erceg, Christopher J. & Levin, Andrew T., 2002. "Optimal monetary policy with durable and non-durable goods," Working Paper Series 0179, European Central Bank.
  5. Huang, Kevin X.D. & Liu, Zheng, 2004. "Input Output Structure And Nominal Rigidity: The Persistence Problem Revisited," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(02), pages 188-206, April.
  6. Argia M. Sbordone, 2001. "Prices and Unit Labor Costs: A New Test of Price Stickiness," Departmental Working Papers 200112, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  7. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1996. "Sticky Price Models of the Business Cycle: Can the Contract Multiplier Solve the Persistence Problem?," NBER Working Papers 5809, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Dhyne, Emmanuel & Álvarez, Luis J. & Le Bihan, Hervé & Veronese, Giovanni & Dias, Daniel & Hoffmann, Johannes & Jonker, Nicole & Lünnemann, Patrick & Rumler, Fabio & Vilmunen, Jouko, 2005. "Price setting in the euro area: some stylized facts from individual consumer price data," Working Paper Series 0524, European Central Bank.
  9. Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2005. "New tests of the new-Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1167-1181, September.
  10. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler & J. David Lopez-Salido, 2001. "European Inflation Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 8218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-159.
  12. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2002. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," NBER Working Papers 9069, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
  14. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2004. "Contemporaneous aggregation of linear dynamic models in large economies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 75-102, May.
  16. Ignazio Angelloni & Luc Aucremanne & Michael Ehrmann & Jordi Galí & Andrew Levin & Frank Smets, 2005. "New evidence on inflation persistence and price stickiness in the Euro area: Implications for macro modelling," Economics Working Papers 910, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  17. Campbell Leith & Jim Malley, . "A Sectoral Analysis of Price-Setting Behavior in US Manufacturing Industries," Working Papers 2003_7, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised May 2003.
  18. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C. & Moore, George R. & Schuh, Scott D., 1995. "Estimating the linear-quadratic inventory model Maximum likelihood versus generalized method of moments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 115-157, February.
  19. Dixon, Huw & Kara, Engin, 2005. "Persistence and nominal inertia in a generalized Taylor economy: how longer contracts dominate shorter contracts," Working Paper Series 0489, European Central Bank.
  20. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky information versus sticky prices: a proposal to replace the New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  21. Álvarez, Luis J. & Burriel, Pablo & Hernando, Ignacio, 2005. "Do decreasing hazard functions for price changes make any sense?," Working Paper Series 0461, European Central Bank.
  22. Philip Vermeulen & Daniel Dias & Maarten Dossche & Erwan Gautier & Ignacio Hernando & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl, 2007. "Price setting in the euro area : some stylised facts from individual producer price data," Working Paper Research 111, National Bank of Belgium.
  23. BOUAKEZ, Hafedh & CARDIA, Emanuela & RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2005. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy in a Multi-Sector Economy," Cahiers de recherche 20-2005, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  24. DUFOUR, Jean-Marie & KHALAF, Lynda & KICHIAN, Maral, 2005. "Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: An Identification Robust Econometric Analysis," Cahiers de recherche 22-2005, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  25. Dupor, Bill, 1999. "Aggregation and irrelevance in multi-sector models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 391-409, April.
  26. Fougère, Denis & Le Bihan, Hervé & Sevestre, Patrick, 2005. "Heterogeneity in consumer price stickiness: a microeconometric investigation," Working Paper Series 0536, European Central Bank.
  27. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  28. Kurmann, Andre, 2007. "VAR-based estimation of Euler equations with an application to New Keynesian pricing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 767-796, March.
  29. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Economics Working Papers 341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  30. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2005. "Identifying the New Keynesian Phillips curve," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2005-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  31. Hsiao, Cheng & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2004. "Random Coefficient Panel Data Models," IZA Discussion Papers 1236, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  32. Florian PELGRIN & GUAY Alain & LUGER Richard, 2004. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: An Empirical Assessment," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 212, Society for Computational Economics.
  33. Virgiliu Midrigan, 2005. "Menu Costs, Multi-Product Firms and Aggregate Fluctuations," Macroeconomics 0511004, EconWPA.
  34. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  35. Jondeau, Eric & Le Bihan, Hervé, 2008. "Examining bias in estimators of linear rational expectations models under misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 375-395, April.
  36. Stoker, Thomas M, 1993. "Empirical Approaches to the Problem of Aggregation Over Individuals," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1827-74, December.
  37. Pesaran, H. & Smith, R. & Im, K.S., 1995. "Dynamic Linear Models for Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9503, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  38. Granger, C. W. J., 1987. "Implications of Aggregation with Common Factors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(02), pages 208-222, April.
  39. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 1997. "Aggregation and the Microfoundations of Dynamic Macroeconomics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288008, June.
  40. Linde, Jesper, 2005. "Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips curves: A full information maximum likelihood approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1135-1149, September.
  41. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, 07.
  42. Mojon, Benoît & Altissimo, Filippo & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2007. "Fast micro and slow macro: can aggregation explain the persistence of inflation?," Working Paper Series 0729, European Central Bank.
  43. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2006. "Inflation Persistence and Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 587-614, April.
  44. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
  45. Arthur Lewbel, 1992. "Aggregation with Log-Linear Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(3), pages 635-642.
  46. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2004. "Optimal monetary policy in a currency area," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 293-320, July.
  47. Baudry, L. & Le Bihan, H. & Sevestre, P. & Tarrieu, S., 2004. "Price Rigidity. Evidence from the French CPI Macro-Data," Working papers 113, Banque de France.
  48. Aoki, Kosuke, 2001. "Optimal monetary policy responses to relative-price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 55-80, August.
  49. Karl Whelan & Jeremy Rudd, 2003. "Can Rational Expectations Sticky-Price Models Explain Inflation Dynamics?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 181, Society for Computational Economics.
  50. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2008. "Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1415-1464.
  51. Pesaran, M Hashem & Pierse, Richard G & Kumar, Mohan S, 1989. "Econometric Analysis of Aggregation in the Context of Linear Prediction Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 861-88, July.
  52. Swamy, P A V B, 1970. "Efficient Inference in a Random Coefficient Regression Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(2), pages 311-23, March.
  53. Alejandro Justiniano & Michael Kumhof & Federico Ravenna, 2006. "Multi-Sectoral Cascading and Price Dynamics - A Bayesian Econometric Evaluation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 422, Society for Computational Economics.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6184. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.