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Aggregating Phillips Curves

Author

Listed:
  • Jondeau, Eric
  • Imbs, Jean
  • Pelgrin, Florian

Abstract

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve is at the centre of two raging empirical debates. First, how can purely forward looking pricing account for the observed persistence in aggregate inflation. Second, price-setting responds to movements in marginal costs, which should therefore be the driving force to observed inflation dynamics. This is not always the case in typical estimations. In this paper, we show how heterogeneity in pricing behaviour is relevant to both questions. We detail the conditions under which imposing homogeneity results in overestimating a backward-looking component in (aggregate) inflation, and underestimating the importance of (aggregate) marginal costs for (aggregate) inflation. We provide intuition for the direction of these biases, and verify them in French data with information on prices and marginal costs at the industry level. We show that the apparent discrepancy in the estimated duration of nominal rigidities, as implied from aggregate or microeconomic data, can be fully attributable to a heterogeneity bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Jondeau, Eric & Imbs, Jean & Pelgrin, Florian, 2007. "Aggregating Phillips Curves," CEPR Discussion Papers 6184, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6184
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    Cited by:

    1. Joseph P. Byrne & Alexandros Kontonikas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2013. "International Evidence on the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Using Aggregate and Disaggregate Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(5), pages 913-932, August.
    2. Milda Norkute, 2015. "Can the sectoral New Keynesian Phillips curve explain inflation dynamics in the Euro Area?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1191-1216, December.
    3. Markus Knell & Alfred Stiglbauer, 2009. "The Impact of Reference Norms on Inflation Persistence When Wages are Staggered," Working Papers 153, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    4. Kapetanios, George & Price, Simon & Tasiou, Menelaos & Ventouri, Alexia, 2021. "State-level wage Phillips curves," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 1-11.
    5. Martina Cecioni, 2010. "Firm entry, competitive pressures and the US inflation dynamics," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 773, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Kalim Hyder & Stephen G. Hall, 2020. "Estimates of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Pakistan," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 871-886, August.
    7. Fröhling, Annette & Lommatzsch, Kirsten, 2011. "Output sensitivity of inflation in the euro area: Indirect evidence from disaggregated consumer prices," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,25, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Borek Vašícek, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Four Central European Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(5), pages 71-100, September.
    9. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:153:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Carlos Carvalho & Niels Arne Dam, 2009. "Estimating the cross-sectional distribution of price stickiness from aggregate data," Staff Reports 419, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    11. Dhyne, Emmanuel & Fuss, Catherine & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Sevestre, Patrick, 2011. "Lumpy Price Adjustments: A Microeconometric Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(4), pages 529-540.
    12. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko & Norman R. Swanson, 2010. "International evidence on the efficacy of new‐Keynesian models of inflation persistence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 31-54, January.
    13. Felipe Schwartzman & Carlos Carvalho, 2008. "Heterogeneous Price Setting Behavior and Monetary Non-neutrality: Some General Results," 2008 Meeting Papers 1040, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Cagliarini, Adam & Robinson, Tim & Tran, Allen, 2011. "Reconciling microeconomic and macroeconomic estimates of price stickiness," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 102-120, March.
    15. Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2010. "A new test of the inflation-real marginal cost relationship: ARDL bounds approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 122-125, August.
    16. Stefano Eusepi & Bart Hobijn & Andrea Tambalotti, 2011. "CONDI: A Cost-of-Nominal-Distortions Index," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 53-91, July.
    17. A. Moutaabbid, 2024. "Les determinants de la dynamique des salaires en France : approches macro et sectorielles par la courbe de Phillips," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers 2024-20, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    18. Petrella, Ivan & Santoro, Emiliano, 2012. "Inflation dynamics and real marginal costs: New evidence from U.S. manufacturing industries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 779-794.
    19. Alvarez González, Luis Julián, 2008. "What Do Micro Price Data Tell Us on the Validity of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-36.
    20. Markus Knell & Alfred Stiglbauer, 2012. "Reference Norms, Staggered Wages, And Wage Leadership: Theoretical Implications And Empirical Evidence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 569-592, May.
    21. Haroon Mumtaz & Pawel Zabczyk & Colin Ellis, 2009. "What lies beneath: what can disaggregated data tell us about the behaviour of prices?," Bank of England working papers 364, Bank of England.
    22. Lawless, Martina & Whelan, Karl T., 2011. "Understanding the dynamics of labor shares and inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 121-136, June.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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