IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Aggregating Phillips Curves

  • FAME,Eric Jondeau, University of Lausanne-HEC
  • Jean Imbs

    (Department of Economics and Econometrics University of Lausanne-HEC, CEPR and FAME)

  • Eric Jondeau

    (University of Lausanne-HEC and FAME)

  • Florian Pelgrin

    ()

    (University of Lausanne-HEC and IEMS)

Since it burst onto the scene of mainstream monetary economics, the New Neo-Classical Phillips Curve has been the focus of two important empirical debates. First, to what extent properly measured marginal costs affect inflation dynamics. Second, to what extent purely forward looking inflation can be reconciled with the data. In this paper, we show heterogeneity in the pricing behavior of firms, matters for both issues. If pricing is heterogeneous, estimations based on GMM techniques are flawed, to an extent that increases with the correlation between aggregate and disaggregate price dynamics. We use sectoral quarterly French data on prices and marginal costs to illustrate this possibility and quantify the magnitude and direction of the implied bias. Two results arise when the estimation accounts for the possibility of heterogeneity. First, marginal costs become substantially more important in affecting inflation dynamics (i.e. heterogeneity induces a negative bias in the response of aggregate inflation to marginal costs). Second, lagged inflation also becomes more important than previously reported using GMM techniques. We provide analytical expressions for the biases which arise when heterogeneity is not taken into account. It helps pinpoint the sources of the differences in results. These are relevant to our data, where they help explain the biases just described, but they also provide a toolkit with which to gauge the magnitude and direction of an aggregation bias in any disaggregated data.

To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 314.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:314
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://comp-econ.org/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Jondeau, Eric & Le Bihan, Hervé, 2008. "Examining bias in estimators of linear rational expectations models under misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 375-395, April.
  2. Karl Whelan & Jeremy Rudd, 2003. "Can Rational Expectations Sticky-Price Models Explain Inflation Dynamics?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 181, Society for Computational Economics.
  3. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2004. "Optimal monetary policy in a currency area," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 293-320, July.
  4. Kevin X. D. Huang & Zheng Liu, 2001. "Input-Output Structure and Nominal Staggering: The Persistence Problem Revisited," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 145, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  5. Argia M. Sbordone, 2001. "Prices and Unit Labor Costs: A New Test of Price Stickiness," Departmental Working Papers 200112, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  6. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2002. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," NBER Working Papers 9069, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
  8. Karl Whelan & Jeremy Rudd, 2001. "New tests of the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve," Open Access publications 10197/249, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
  9. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2003. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0307, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  10. Campbell Leith & Jim Malley, 2007. "A Sectoral Analysis of Price-Setting Behavior in U.S. Manufacturing Industries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 335-342, May.
  11. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
  12. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 1997. "Aggregation and the Microfoundations of Dynamic Macroeconomics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288008, December.
  13. Florian PELGRIN & GUAY Alain & LUGER Richard, 2004. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: An Empirical Assessment," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 212, Society for Computational Economics.
  14. Virgiliu Midrigan, 2005. "Menu Costs, Multi-Product Firms and Aggregate Fluctuations," Macroeconomics 0511004, EconWPA.
  15. Lindé, Jesper, 2001. "Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips Curves: A Full Information Maximum Likelihood Approach," Working Paper Series 129, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 30 Apr 2001.
  16. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  17. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral, 2006. "Inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: An identification robust econometric analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1707-1727.
  18. Hafedh Bouakez & Emanuela Cardia & Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2009. "The Transmission Of Monetary Policy In A Multisector Economy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1243-1266, November.
  19. Denis Fougère & Hervé Le Bihan & Patrick Sevestre, 2007. "Heterogeneity in consumer price stickiness. A microeconometric investigation," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00278922, HAL.
  20. Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2004. "Contemporaneous aggregation of linear dynamic models in large economies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 75-102, May.
  21. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2008. "Identifying the new Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 525-551.
  23. Philip Vermeulen & Daniel Dias & Maarten Dossche & Erwan Gautier & I. Hernando & R. Sabbatini & H. Stahl, 2007. "Price setting in the euro area: Some stylised facts from Individual Producer Price Data," Working Papers w200705, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  24. Kurmann, Andre, 2007. "VAR-based estimation of Euler equations with an application to New Keynesian pricing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 767-796, March.
  25. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler & J. David Lopez-Salido, 2001. "European Inflation Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 8218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Dupor, Bill, 1999. "Aggregation and irrelevance in multi-sector models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 391-409, April.
  27. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
  28. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & George R. Moore & Scott Schuh, 1993. "Estimating the linear-quadratic inventory model: maximum likelihood versus generalized method of moments," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  29. Álvarez, Luis J. & Burriel, Pablo & Hernando, Ignacio, 2005. "Do decreasing hazard functions for price changes make any sense?," Working Paper Series 0461, European Central Bank.
  30. Engin Kara & Huw Dixon, 2005. "Persistence and Nominal Inertia in a Generalized Taylor Economy: How Longer Contracts Dominate Shorter Contracts," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 87, Society for Computational Economics.
  31. Emmanuel Dhyne & Luis J. Álvarez & Hervé Le Bihan & Giovanni Veronese & Daniel Dias & Johannes Hoffmann & Nicole Jonker & Patrick Lünnemann & Fabio Rumler & Jouko Vilmunen, 2005. "Price setting in the euro area: Some stylized facts from Individual Consumer Price Data," Working Papers w200506, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  32. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," CESifo Working Paper Series 1331, CESifo Group Munich.
  33. Alejandro Justiniano & Michael Kumhof & Federico Ravenna, 2006. "Multi-Sectoral Cascading and Price Dynamics - A Bayesian Econometric Evaluation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 422, Society for Computational Economics.
  34. Hsiao, Cheng & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2004. "Random Coefficient Panel Data Models," IZA Discussion Papers 1236, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  35. Pesaran, M Hashem & Pierse, Richard G & Lee, Kevin C, 1994. "Choice between Disaggregate and Aggregate Specifications Estimated by Instrumental Variables Methods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(1), pages 11-21, January.
  36. Pierpaolo Benigno & J. David López-Salido, 2002. "Inflation persistence and optimal monetary policy in the Euro Area," Working Papers 0215, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  37. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1998. "Sticky price models of the business cycle: can the contract multiplier solve the persistence problem?," Staff Report 217, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  38. Christopher J. Erceg & Andrew T. Levin, 2002. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Durable and Non-Durable Goods," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 343, Society for Computational Economics.
  39. Huang, Kevin X.D. & Liu, Zheng, 2004. "Input Output Structure And Nominal Rigidity: The Persistence Problem Revisited," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(02), pages 188-206, April.
  40. Ignazio Angeloni & Luc Aucremanne & Michael Ehrmann & Jordi Galí & Andrew Levin & Frank Smets, 2006. "New Evidence on Inflation Persistence and Price Stickiness in the Euro Area: Implications for Macro Modeling," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 562-574, 04-05.
  41. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  42. Filippo Altissimo & Benoît Mojon & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2007. "Fast micro and slow macro: can aggregation explain the persistence of inflation?," Working Paper Series WP-07-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  43. Aoki, Kosuke, 2001. "Optimal monetary policy responses to relative-price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 55-80, August.
  44. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  45. Arthur Lewbel, 1992. "Aggregation with Log-Linear Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(3), pages 635-642.
  46. Swamy, P A V B, 1970. "Efficient Inference in a Random Coefficient Regression Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(2), pages 311-23, March.
  47. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2008. "Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1415-1464.
  48. Granger, C. W. J., 1987. "Implications of Aggregation with Common Factors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(02), pages 208-222, April.
  49. Stoker, Thomas M, 1993. "Empirical Approaches to the Problem of Aggregation Over Individuals," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1827-74, December.
  50. Baudry, Laurent & Le Bihan, Hervé & Sevestre, Patrick & Tarrieu, Sylvie, 2004. "Price rigidity. Evidence from the French CPI micro-data," Working Paper Series 0384, European Central Bank.
  51. Pesaran, M Hashem & Pierse, Richard G & Kumar, Mohan S, 1989. "Econometric Analysis of Aggregation in the Context of Linear Prediction Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 861-88, July.
  52. Pesaran, H. & Smith, R. & Im, K.S., 1995. "Dynamic Linear Models for Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9503, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  53. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-159.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:314. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.