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Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: An Identification Robust Econometric Analysis

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  • DUFOUR, Jean-Marie
  • KHALAF, Lynda
  • KICHIAN, Maral

Abstract

In this paper, we use identification-robust methods to assess the empirical adequacy of a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) equation. We focus on the Gali and Gertler’s (1999) specification, on both U.S. and Canadian data. Two variants of the model are studied: one based on a rational expectations assumption, and a modification to the latter which consists in using survey data on inflation expectations. The results based on these two specifications exhibit sharp differences concerning: (i) identification difficulties, (ii) backward-looking behavior, and (ii) the frequency of price adjustments. Overall, we find that there is some support for the hybrid NKPC for the U.S., whereas the model is not suited to Canada. Our findings underscore the need for employing identification robust inference methods in the estimation of expectations-based dynamic macroeconomic relations.

Suggested Citation

  • DUFOUR, Jean-Marie & KHALAF, Lynda & KICHIAN, Maral, 2005. "Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: An Identification Robust Econometric Analysis," Cahiers de recherche 22-2005, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  • Handle: RePEc:mtl:montec:22-2005
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroeconomics; inflation dynamics; New Keynesian Phillips Curve; identification robust inference; weak instruments; optimal instruments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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