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Are New Keynesian Phillips Curved Identified?

  • Khalaf, Lynda
  • Kichian, Maral

In this paper we use optimal-instrument and new finite-sample methods to test the empirical relevance of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) equation. Unlike generalized method of moments-based methods, these generalized Anderson-Rubin tests are immune to the presence of weak instruments, and allow, by construction, to assess the identification status of a model. Our results are illustrated using the Gali-Gertler (1999) NKPC specifications and data, as well as a survey-based inflation expectation series from the Philadelphia Fed. Our test rejects the reported Gali-Gertler estimates, conditional on their choice of instruments. Nevertheless, and in contrast to Ma (2002), we do obtain relatively informative confidence sets. This provides support for NKPC equations and illustrates the usefulness of using exact procedures and optimal instruments in IV-based estimations. In particular, our results reveal that firms fix prices in a predominantly backward-looking manner, but that they adjust prices every quarter or so. Furthermore, the outcomes indicate that it is difficult to pin-point the extent of the importance of marginal costs for the inflation process.

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Paper provided by GREEN in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 0312.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:lvl:lagrcr:0312
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  1. Kleibergen, Frank & Zivot, Eric, 2003. "Bayesian and classical approaches to instrumental variable regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 29-72, May.
  2. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Jasiak, Joann, 2001. "Finite Sample Limited Information Inference Methods for Structural Equations and Models with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(3), pages 815-43, August.
  3. Jean-Marie Dufour, 1997. "Some Impossibility Theorems in Econometrics with Applications to Structural and Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1365-1388, November.
  4. Jean-Marie Dufour, 2003. "Identification, Weak Instruments and Statistical Inference in Econometrics," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-49, CIRANO.
  5. Nelson, C.R. & Startz, R. & Zivot, E., 1996. "Valid Confidence Intervals and Inference in the Presence of Weak Instruments," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 96-15, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  6. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1994. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," NBER Technical Working Papers 0151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler & J. David López-Salido, 2000. "European Inflation Dynamics," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0020, Banco de Espa�a.
  8. James H. Stock & Jonathan Wright, 2000. "GMM with Weak Identification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1055-1096, September.
  9. Jean-Marie Dufour & Mohamed Taamouti, 2003. "Projection-Based Statistical Inference in Linear Structural Models with Possibly Weak Instruments," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-39, CIRANO.
  10. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C, 1997. "The (Un)Importance of Forward-Looking Behavior in Price Specifications," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 338-50, August.
  11. Lynda Khalaf & Jean-Marie Dufour, 2004. "Simulation-Based Finite-Sample Inference in Simultaneous Equations," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 239, Econometric Society.
  12. Dufour, J.M. & Khalaf, L., 2000. "Simulation-Based Finite and Large Sample Tests in Multivariate Regressions," Cahiers de recherche 2000-10, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  13. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1993. "Inflation persistence," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  14. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-29, October.
  15. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
  16. Frank Kleibergen, 2002. "Pivotal Statistics for Testing Structural Parameters in Instrumental Variables Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1781-1803, September.
  17. DUFOUR, Jean-Marie, 2003. "Identification, Weak Instruments and Statistical Inference in Econometrics," Cahiers de recherche 10-2003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  18. Ma, Adrian, 2002. "GMM estimation of the new Phillips curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 411-417, August.
  19. Marcelo J. Moreira, 2003. "A General Theory of Hypothesis Testing in the Simultaneous Equations Model," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1992, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  20. Jiahui Wang & Eric Zivot, 1998. "Inference on Structural Parameters in Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(6), pages 1389-1404, November.
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