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Valid Confidence Intervals and Inference in the Presence of Weak Instruments

  • Zivot, Eric
  • Startz, Richard
  • Nelson, Charles R

The authors investigate confidence intervals and inference for the instrumental variables model with weak instruments. Confidence intervals based on inverting the Lagrange multiplier (LM), likelihood ration (LR), and Anderson-Robin statistics perform far better than the Wald. Performance of the LM and LR statistics is improved by a degrees-of-freedom correction in the overidentified case. The practice of pretesting by looking at the significance of the first-stage regression and then making inference based on the LM or LR statistics leads to better results than pretesting and using the Wald statistic. Copyright 1998 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

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Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association in its journal International Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 39 (1998)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 1119-46

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Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:39:y:1998:i:4:p:1119-46
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  1. Maddala, G S, 1974. "Some Small Sample Evidence on Tests of Significance in Simultaneous Equations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(5), pages 841-51, September.
  2. Jeffrey Fuhrer & George Moore & Scott Schuh, 1993. "Estimating the linear-quadratic inventory model: maximum likelihood versus generalized method of moments," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Hall, Alastair R & Rudebusch, Glenn D & Wilcox, David W, 1996. "Judging Instrument Relevance in Instrumental Variables Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(2), pages 283-98, May.
  4. Nelson, C. & Startz, R., 1988. "Some Furthere Results On The Exact Small Sample Properties Of The Instrumental Variable Estimator," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 88-06, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  5. Joshua Angrist & Alan Krueger, 1990. "Does Compulsory School Attendance Affect Schooling and Earnings?," Working Papers 653, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
  6. J. Dufour, 1995. "Some Impossibility Theorems in Econometrics with Applications to Instrumental Variables, Dynamic Models and Cointegration," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1995,27, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  7. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Wang, J. & Zivot, E., 1996. "Inference of a Structural Parameter in Intrumental Variables Regression with weak Instruments," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 96-06, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  9. Bowden,Roger J. & Turkington,Darrell A., 1990. "Instrumental Variables," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521385824.
  10. Robert E. Hall, 1981. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," NBER Working Papers 0720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1982. "Exact Small Sample Theory in the Simultaneous Equations Model," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 621, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  12. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  13. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "Hypothesis Testing with Efficient Method of Moments Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 777-87, October.
  14. D. Klepinger & S. Lundberg & R. Plotnick, . "Instrument selection: The case of teenage childbearing and women's educational attainment," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1077-95, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
  15. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1984. "Interpreting the Statistical Failures of Some Rational Expectations Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 188-93, May.
  16. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Shea, J., 1993. "Instrument Relevance in Linear Models: A Simple Measure," Working papers 9312, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
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