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Logique et tests d'hypotheses: reflexions sur les problemes mal poses en econometrie

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  • DUFOUR, Jean-Marie

Abstract

Dans ce texte, nous analysons les développements récents de l’économétrie à la lumière de la théorie des tests statistiques. Nous revoyons d’abord quelques principes fondamentaux de philosophie des sciences et de théorie statistique, en mettant l’accent sur la parcimonie et la falsifiabilité comme critères d’évaluation des modèles, sur le rôle de la théorie des tests comme formalisation du principe de falsification de modèles probabilistes, ainsi que sur la justification logique des notions de base de la théorie des tests (tel le niveau d’un test). Nous montrons ensuite que certaines des méthodes statistiques et économétriques les plus utilisées sont fondamentalement inappropriées pour les problèmes et modèles considérés, tandis que de nombreuses hypothèses, pour lesquelles des procédures de test sont communément proposées, ne sont en fait pas du tout testables. De telles situations conduisent à des problèmes statistiques mal posés. Nous analysons quelques cas particuliers de tels problèmes : (1) la construction d’intervalles de confiance dans le cadre de modèles structurels qui posent des problèmes d’identification; (2) la construction de tests pour des hypothèses non paramétriques, incluant la construction de procédures robustes à l’hétéroscédasticité, à la non-normalité ou à la spécification dynamique. Nous indiquons que ces difficultés proviennent souvent de l’ambition d’affaiblir les conditions de régularité nécessaires à toute analyse statistique ainsi que d’une utilisation inappropriée de résultats de théorie distributionnelle asymptotique. Enfin, nous soulignons l’importance de formuler des hypothèses et modèles testables, et de proposer des techniques économétriques dont les propriétés sont démontrables dans les échantillons finis.

Suggested Citation

  • DUFOUR, Jean-Marie, 2001. "Logique et tests d'hypotheses: reflexions sur les problemes mal poses en econometrie," Cahiers de recherche 2001-15, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  • Handle: RePEc:mtl:montde:2001-15
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Marie Dufour, 2003. "Identification, weak instruments, and statistical inference in econometrics," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 767-808, November.
    2. Abdelhamid El Bouhadi, 2003. "Conditional Volatility Of Most Active Shares Of Casablanca Stock Exchange," Finance 0305007, EconWPA, revised 02 Feb 2004.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    économétrie ; statistique ; théorie des tests ; ilosoie des sciences ; falsifiabilité ; Poer ; rcimonie ; identification ; instruments faibles ; modèle non ramétrique ; séries chronologiques ; modèle autorégressif ; hétéroscédasticité ; racine unitaire ; méthode robuste ; non-normalité ; oblème mal sé;

    JEL classification:

    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General

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