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Approximating the Distribution of the Instrumental Variables Estimator when the Concentration Parameter is Small

This paper presents a new approximation to the exact sampling distribution of the instrumental variables estimator in simultaneous equations models. It differs from many of the approximations currently available, Edgeworth expansions for example, in that it is specifically designed to work well when the concentration parameter is small. The approximation is remarkable for the simplicity of its final form, for its accuracy and for its ability to capture those stylized facts that characterize lack of identification and weak instrument scenarios. The development leading to the approximation is also novel in that it introduces techniques of some independent interest not seen in this literature hitherto.

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File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/ebs/pubs/wpapers/2004/wp19-04.pdf
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Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in its series Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers with number 19/04.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2004-19
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  1. Sargan, J D, 1983. "Identification and Lack of Identification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(6), pages 1605-33, November.
  2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  3. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1987. "Partially Identified Econometric Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 845R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 1988.
  4. John C. Chao & Norman Rasmus Swanson, 2004. "Consistent Estimation with a Large Number of Weak Instruments," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm374, Yale School of Management.
  5. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
  6. Nelson, C. & Startz, R., 1988. "Some Furthere Results On The Exact Small Sample Properties Of The Instrumental Variable Estimator," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 88-06, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  7. Nelson, C. & Startz, R., 1988. "The Distribution Of The Instrumental Variables Estimator And Its T-Ratio When The Instrument Is A Poor One," Working Papers 88-07, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  8. Richard Startz & Charles Nelson & Eric Zivot, 1999. "Improved Inference for the Instrumental Variable Estimator," Working Papers 0039, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  9. Mariano, Roberto S, 1977. "Finite Sample Properties of Instrumental Variable Estimators of Structural Coefficients," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(2), pages 487-96, March.
  10. Anderson, T W & Sawa, Takamitsu, 1979. "Evaluation of the Distribution Function of the Two-Stage Least Squares Estimate," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 163-82, January.
  11. Sargan, J D & Mikhail, W M, 1971. "A General Approximation to the Distribution of Instrumental Variables Estimates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(1), pages 131-69, January.
  12. Hillier, Grant H & Kinal, Terrence W & Srivastava, V K, 1984. "On the Moments of Ordinary Least Squares and Instrumental Variables Estimators in a General Structural Equation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(1), pages 185-202, January.
  13. In Choi & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1989. "Asymptotic and Finite Sample Distribution Theory for IV Estimators and Tests in Partially Identified Structural Equations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 929, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  14. John C. Chao & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Asymptotic Normality of Single-Equation Estimators for the Case with a Large Number of Weak Instruments," Departmental Working Papers 200312, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  15. Kinal, Terrence W, 1980. "The Existence of Moments of k-Class Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 241-49, January.
  16. Woglom, Geoffrey, 2001. "More Results on the Exact Small Sample Properties of the Instrumental Variable Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1381-89, September.
  17. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-29, October.
  18. Jean-Marie Dufour, 1997. "Some Impossibility Theorems in Econometrics with Applications to Structural and Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1365-1388, November.
  19. Phillips, P.C.B., 1983. "Exact small sample theory in the simultaneous equations model," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 449-516 Elsevier.
  20. Jiahui Wang & Eric Zivot, 1998. "Inference on Structural Parameters in Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(6), pages 1389-1404, November.
  21. Mariano, Roberto S, 1982. "Analytical Small-Sample Distribution Theory in Econometrics: The Simultaneous-Equations Case," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 23(3), pages 503-33, October.
  22. Marcelo J. Moreira, 2003. "A Conditional Likelihood Ratio Test for Structural Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1027-1048, 07.
  23. Phillips, P C B, 1980. "The Exact Distribution of Instrumental Variable Estimators in an Equation Containing n + 1 Endogenous Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 861-78, May.
  24. D.S. Poskitt & C.L. Skeels, 2002. "Assessing Instrumental Variable Relevance:An Alternative Measure and Some Exact Finite Sample Theory," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 862, The University of Melbourne.
  25. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1982. "Small Sample Distribution Theory in Econometric Models of Simultaneous Equations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 617, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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