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Alternative Approximations of the Bias and MSE of the IV Estimator under Weak Identification with an Application to Bias Correction

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  • John Chao

    (University of Maryland)

  • Norman R. Swanson

    (Rutgers University)

Abstract

We provide analytical formulae for the asymptotic bias (ABIAS) and mean squared error (AMSE) of the IV estimator, and obtain approximations thereof based on an asymptotic scheme which essentially requires the expectation of the first stage F-statistic to converge to a finite (possibly small) positive limit as the number of instruments approaches infinity. The approximations so obtained are shown, via regression analysis, to yield good approximations for ABIAS and AMSE functions, and the AMSE approximation is shown to perform well relative to the approximation of Donald and Newey (2001). Additionally, the manner in which our framework generalizes that of Richardson and Wu (1971) is discussed. One consequence of the asymptotic framework adopted here is that consistent estimators for the ABIAS and AMSE can be obtained. As a result, we are able to construct a number of bias corrected OLS and IV estimators, which we show to be consistent under a sequential asymptotic scheme. These bias-corrected estimators are also robust, in the sense that they remain consistent in a conventional asymptotic setup, where the model is fully identified. A small Monte Carlo experiment documents the relative performance of our bias adjusted estimators versus standard IV, OLS, LIML estimators, and it is shown that our estimators have lower bias than LIML for various levels of endogeneity and instrument relevance.

Suggested Citation

  • John Chao & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Alternative Approximations of the Bias and MSE of the IV Estimator under Weak Identification with an Application to Bias Correction," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1418, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1418
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    4. Lu Deng & Han Zhang & Lei Song & Kai Yu, 2020. "Approximation of bias and mean‐squared error in two‐sample Mendelian randomization analyses," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 76(2), pages 369-379, June.
    5. Weiming Zhang & Debashis Ghosh, 2021. "A General Approach to Sensitivity Analysis for Mendelian Randomization," Statistics in Biosciences, Springer;International Chinese Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 34-55, April.
    6. Maurice Bun & Frank Windmeijer, 2010. "A comparison of bias approximations for the 2SLS estimator," CeMMAP working papers CWP07/10, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    7. Bai Huang & Tae-Hwy Lee & Aman Ullah, 2017. "A combined estimator of regression models with measurement errors," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 73-91, December.
    8. Matthew C. Harding & Jerry Hausman & Christopher Palmer, 2015. "Finite sample bias corrected IV estimation for weak and many instruments," CeMMAP working papers CWP41/15, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    9. Emma M. Iglesias & Garry D. A. Phillips, 2012. "Almost Unbiased Estimation in Simultaneous Equation Models With Strong and/or Weak Instruments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 505-520, June.
    10. Christopher L. Skeels & Frank Windmeijer, 2018. "On the Stock–Yogo Tables," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-23, November.
    11. Ahsan, Md. Nazmul & Dufour, Jean-Marie, 2021. "Simple estimators and inference for higher-order stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 181-197.
    12. Donald W.K. Andrews & James H. Stock, 2005. "Inference with Weak Instruments," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1530, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    13. Sonia Laszlo, 2005. "Self-employment earnings and returns to education in rural Peru," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(7), pages 1247-1287.
    14. Jean‐Marie Dufour, 2003. "Identification, weak instruments, and statistical inference in econometrics," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(4), pages 767-808, November.
    15. Peter C. B. Phillips, 2017. "Reduced forms and weak instrumentation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6-9), pages 818-839, October.
    16. Berkowitz, Daniel & Jackson, John E., 2006. "Entrepreneurship and the evolution of income distributions in Poland and Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 338-356, June.
    17. Luiz M. Cruz & Marcelo J. Moreira, 2005. "On the Validity of Econometric Techniques with Weak Instruments: Inference on Returns to Education Using Compulsory School Attendance Laws," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 40(2).
    18. Iglesias Emma M., 2011. "Constrained k-class Estimators in the Presence of Weak Instruments," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(4), pages 1-13, September.
    19. Zongwu Cai & Henong Li, 2013. "Convergency and Divergency of Functional Coefficient Weak Instrumental Variables Models," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    20. Bun, Maurice J.G. & Windmeijer, Frank, 2011. "A comparison of bias approximations for the two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 76-79, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Confluent hypergeometric function; Laplace approximation; Local-to-zero asymptotics; Weak instruments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models

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