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Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Uniform Inference with Sporadic Identification Failure

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This paper analyzes the properties of a class of estimators, tests, and confidence sets (CS's) when the parameters are not identified in parts of the parameter space. Specifically, we consider estimator criterion functions that are sample averages and are smooth functions of a parameter theta. This includes log likelihood, quasi-log likelihood, and least squares criterion functions. We determine the asymptotic distributions of estimators under lack of identification and under weak, semi-strong, and strong identification. We determine the asymptotic size (in a uniform sense) of standard t and quasi-likelihood ratio (QLR) tests and CS's. We provide methods of constructing QLR tests and CS's that are robust to the strength of identification. The results are applied to two examples: a nonlinear binary choice model and the smooth transition threshold autoregressive (STAR) model.

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  • Donald W. K. Andrews & Xu Cheng, 2011. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Uniform Inference with Sporadic Identification Failure," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1824, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1824 Note: Includes Supplement
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrews, Donald W.K. & Cheng, Xu, 2013. "Maximum likelihood estimation and uniform inference with sporadic identification failure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 173(1), pages 36-56.
    2. Tiemen M. Woutersen & John Ham, 2013. "Calculating confidence intervals for continuous and discontinuous functions of parameters," CeMMAP working papers CWP23/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    3. Alexandre Belloni & Victor Chernozhukov & Christian Hansen, 2011. "Inference on Treatment Effects After Selection Amongst High-Dimensional Controls," Papers 1201.0224, arXiv.org, revised May 2012.
    4. Jean-Marie Dufour & Joachim Wilde, 2013. "Weak Identification in Probit Models with Endogenous Covariates," Working Papers 95, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University, revised 28 Feb 2013.
    5. Andrews, Donald W.K. & Cheng, Xu, 2014. "Gmm Estimation And Uniform Subvector Inference With Possible Identification Failure," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(02), pages 287-333, April.
    6. Chen, Xiaohong & Ponomareva, Maria & Tamer, Elie, 2014. "Likelihood inference in some finite mixture models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 87-99.
    7. Cheng, Xu, 2015. "Robust inference in nonlinear models with mixed identification strength," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(1), pages 207-228.
    8. Jui-Chung Yang & Ke-Li Xu, 2013. "Estimation and Inference under Weak Identi cation and Persistence: An Application on Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Reaction Function," 2013 Papers pya307, Job Market Papers.
    9. Ruoyao Shi & Zhipeng Liao, 2018. "An Averaging GMM Estimator Robust to Misspecification," Working Papers 201803, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    10. Khalaf, Lynda & Urga, Giovanni, 2014. "Identification robust inference in cointegrating regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(2), pages 385-396.
    11. Chen, Feiyan & Ding, Feng & Alsaedi, Ahmed & Hayat, Tasawar, 2017. "Data filtering based multi-innovation extended gradient method for controlled autoregressive autoregressive moving average systems using the maximum likelihood principle," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 53-67.

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    Keywords

    Asymptotic size; Binary choice; Confidence set; Estimator; Identification; Likelihood; Nonlinear models; Test; Smooth transition threshold autoregression; Weak identification;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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