IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/udb/wpaper/uwec-2008-06-r.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Valid Inference for a Class of Models Where Standard Inference Performs Poorly: Including Nonlinear Regression, ARMA, GARCH, and Unobserved Components

Author

Listed:
  • Jun Ma

    (U of Alabama)

  • Charles R. Nelson

Abstract

No abstract is available for this item.

Suggested Citation

  • Jun Ma & Charles R. Nelson, 2008. "Valid Inference for a Class of Models Where Standard Inference Performs Poorly: Including Nonlinear Regression, ARMA, GARCH, and Unobserved Components," Working Papers UWEC-2008-06-R, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2008.
    • Handle: RePEc:udb:wpaper:uwec-2008-06-r
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econ.washington.edu/user/cnelson/Valid.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    2. James C. Morley & Charles R. Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2003. "Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Components Decompositions of GDP So Different?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 235-243, May.
    3. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    4. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1481-1509 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2000. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," NBER Working Papers 8059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Ma Jun & Nelson Charles R & Startz Richard, 2007. "Spurious Inference in the GARCH (1,1) Model When It Is Weakly Identified," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-29, March.
    7. Harvey, A C, 1985. "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-227, June.
    8. Jean-Marie Dufour, 1997. "Some Impossibility Theorems in Econometrics with Applications to Structural and Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1365-1388, November.
    9. Nelson, Charles R., 1988. "Spurious trend and cycle in the state space decomposition of a time series with a unit root," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 475-488.
    10. Peter K. Clark, 1987. "The Cyclical Component of U. S. Economic Activity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(4), pages 797-814.
    11. Nelson, Charles R. & Startz, Richard, 2007. "The zero-information-limit condition and spurious inference in weakly identified models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 47-62, May.
    12. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
    13. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-547, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrews, Donald W.K. & Cheng, Xu, 2013. "Maximum likelihood estimation and uniform inference with sporadic identification failure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 173(1), pages 36-56.
    2. Andrews, Donald W.K. & Cheng, Xu, 2014. "Gmm Estimation And Uniform Subvector Inference With Possible Identification Failure," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(2), pages 287-333, April.
    3. Jun Ma, 2013. "Long‐Run Risk and Its Implications for the Equity Premium Puzzle: New Evidence from a Multivariate Framework," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 121-145, February.
    4. Xu Cheng, 2014. "Uniform Inference in Nonlinear Models with Mixed Identification Strength," PIER Working Paper Archive 14-018, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    5. Cheng, Xu, 2015. "Robust inference in nonlinear models with mixed identification strength," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(1), pages 207-228.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jun Ma, 2013. "Long‐Run Risk and Its Implications for the Equity Premium Puzzle: New Evidence from a Multivariate Framework," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 121-145, February.
    2. Max Soloschenko & Enzo Weber, 2021. "Trend-Cycle Interactions and the Subprime Crisis: Analysis of US and Canadian Output," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(2), pages 109-128, November.
    3. Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2010. "Using A Forward-Looking Phillips Curve to Estimate the Output Gap in Peru," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 6(1-2), pages 1-13, April.
    4. Basistha, Arabinda & Nelson, Charles R., 2007. "New measures of the output gap based on the forward-looking new Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 498-511, March.
    5. Morley, James & Piger, Jeremy, 2008. "Trend/cycle decomposition of regime-switching processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 220-226, October.
    6. Han, Yang & Liu, Zehao & Ma, Jun, 2020. "Growth cycles and business cycles of the Chinese economy through the lens of the unobserved components model," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    7. Luger, Richard, 2012. "Finite-sample bootstrap inference in GARCH models with heavy-tailed innovations," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3198-3211.
    8. Nicholas Sly & Caroline Weber, 2015. "Global tax policy and the synchronization of business cycles," Research Working Paper RWP 15-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    9. Lim, G.C. & McNelis, Paul D., 2008. "Computational Macroeconomics for the Open Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262123061, April.
    10. Charles Engel & James Morley, 2000. "The Adjustment of Prices and the Adjustment of the Exchange Rate," Working Papers 0009, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    11. Marian Vavra, 2016. "Testing the Validity of Assumptions of UC-ARIMA Models for Trend-Cycle Decompositions," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2016, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    12. Kim, Chang-Jin, 2008. "Markov-switching and the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition: Has US output persistence changed since 1984?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 227-240, October.
    13. Luis Uzeda, 2022. "State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova, volume 44, pages 25-53, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    14. Blonigen, Bruce A. & Piger, Jeremy & Sly, Nicholas, 2014. "Comovement in GDP trends and cycles among trading partners," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 239-247.
    15. Tino Berger, 2011. "Estimating Europe’s natural rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 521-536, April.
    16. Tobias Hartl & Rolf Tschernig & Enzo Weber, 2020. "Fractional trends and cycles in macroeconomic time series," Papers 2005.05266, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    17. Nicholas Sly & Caroline Weber, 2013. "International Fiscal Policy Coordination and GDP Comovement," CESifo Working Paper Series 4358, CESifo.
    18. Nicholas Sly & Caroline Weber, 2017. "Bilateral Tax Treaties and GDP Comovement," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 292-319, May.
    19. Juan Antolin-Diaz & Thomas Drechsel & Ivan Petrella, 2017. "Tracking the Slowdown in Long-Run GDP Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 343-356, May.
    20. Oh, Kum Hwa & Zivot, Eric & Creal, Drew, 2008. "The relationship between the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition and other permanent-transitory decompositions that are popular in economics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 207-219, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:udb:wpaper:uwec-2008-06-r. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael Goldblatt (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deuwaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.