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Trend-Cycle Interactions and the Subprime Crisis: Analysis of US and Canadian Output

Author

Listed:
  • Max Soloschenko

    (University of Regensburg)

  • Enzo Weber

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg and University of Regensburg)

Abstract

In the following paper a simultaneous unobserved components model is applied to USAmerican and Canadian output data in order to examine the causal structure of trend and cycle shocks and the way it changes over time. The main focus is placed on the analysis of the subprime crisis impact on the trend and cycle components. The structural model is identified by means of heteroscedasticity. During the subprime crisis for both countries we determine the strong increase of the structural trend variance compared to the previous period. This underlines the permanent effect and, thus, structural problems as a potential cause. Moreover, the both components are more volatile in the Canada than in USA. A further similarity between both countries is the complete disappearance of the structural cycle shock volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Max Soloschenko & Enzo Weber, 2021. "Trend-Cycle Interactions and the Subprime Crisis: Analysis of US and Canadian Output," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(2), pages 109-128, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:jbuscr:v:17:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s41549-021-00058-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s41549-021-00058-2
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unobserved components; Trend; Cycle; Identification; Subprime crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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