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A Time Series Model for an Exchange Rate in a Target Zone with Applications

Listed author(s):
  • Timo Terasvirta

In this paper we introduce a flexible target zone model that is capable of characterizing the dynamic behaviour of an exchange rate implied by the original target zone model of Krugman (1991) and its modifications. Our framework also enables the modeller to estimate an implicit target zone if it exists. A modelling cycle consisting of specification, estimation, and evaluation stages is constructed. The model is fitted to series of daily observations of the Swedish and Norwegian currency indices and the estimated models are evaluated

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Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings with number 340.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
Handle: RePEc:ecm:ausm04:340
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  1. Klaster, Michel A. & Knot, Klaas H. W., 2002. "Toward an econometric target zone model with endogenous devaluation risk for a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 509-529, August.
  2. Forbes, C.S. & Kofman, P., 2000. "Bayesian Soft Target Zones," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/00, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  3. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Calzolari, Giorgio & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1996. "Analytic Derivatives and the Computation of GARCH Estimates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 399-417, July-Aug..
  4. repec:sae:niesru:v:167:y::i:1:p:106-112 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Chung, Chae-Shick & Tauchen, George, 2001. "Testing Target-Zone Models Using Efficient Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 255-269, July.
  6. Lundbergh, Stefan & Terasvirta, Timo, 2002. "Evaluating GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 417-435, October.
  7. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
  8. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1993. "Assessing target zone credibility : Mean reversion and devaluation expectations in the ERM, 1979-1992," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 763-793, May.
  9. Bekaert, Geert & Gray, Stephen F., 1998. "Target zones and exchange rates:: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-35, June.
  10. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
  11. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  12. Chung, Chae-Shick & Tauchen, George, 2001. "Testing Target-Zone Models Using Efficient Method of Moments: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 276-277, July.
  13. Staffan Ringbom, 2003. "Narrow Target Zones within Broad Zones: A Non-Speculative Exchange Rate Solution with Limited Resources," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 319-341, July.
  14. Catherine S. Forbes & Paul Kofman, 2000. "Bayesian Target Zones," Research Paper Series 32, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  15. Lindberg, Hans & Soderlind, Paul, 1994. "Testing the basic target zone model on Swedish data 1982-1990," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 1441-1469, August.
  16. Iannizzotto, Matteo & Taylor, Mark P, 1999. "The Target Zone Model, Non-linearity and Mean Reversion: Is the Honeymoon Really Over?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages 96-110, March.
  17. Torres, Jose L., 2000. "Stochastic intramarginal interventions in target zones," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 249-262, December.
  18. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
  19. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
  20. Gabriela Mundaca, B., 2000. "The effect of interventions on realignment probabilities," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 323-347, December.
  21. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1990. "A Unified Approach to Robust, Regression-Based Specification Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 17-43, March.
  22. Bartolini, Leonardo & Prati, Alessandro, 1999. "Soft exchange rate bands and speculative attacks: theory, and evidence from the ERM since August 1993," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 1-29, October.
  23. Paul Krugman & Marcus Miller, 1992. "Exchange Rate Targets and Currency Bands," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number krug92-1, April.
  24. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
  25. Taylor, Mark P. & Iannizzotto, Matteo, 2001. "On the mean-reverting properties of target zone exchange rates: a cautionary note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 117-129, April.
  26. Brooks, Chris & Reveiz, Alejandro H., 2002. "A model for exchange rates with crawling bands--an application to the Colombian peso," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 483-503.
  27. Lindberg, Hans & Soderlind, Paul, 1994. " Intervention Policy and Mean Reversion in Exchange Rate Target Zones: The Swedish Case," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(4), pages 499-513.
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