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Nonlinear Exchange Rate Dynamics in Target Zones


  • Jesus Crespo Cuaresma

    () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

  • Balázs Égert

    () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

  • Ronald MacDonald



This study investigates exchange rate movements in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS) and in the Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM II). On the basis of the variant of the target zone model proposed by Bartolini and Prati (1999) and Bessec (2003), the authors set up a three-regime self-exciting threshold autoregressive model (SETAR) with a nonstationary central band and explicit modeling of the conditional variance. This modeling framework is employed to model daily Deutsche mark-based and median currency-based bilateral exchange rates of countries participating in the original ERM and also for the exchange rates of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia from 1999 to 2004. Our results confirm the presence of strong nonlinearities and asymmetries in the ERM period, which, however, seem to differ across countries and diminish during the last stage of the run-up to the euro. Important nonlinear adjustments are also detected for Denmark in ERM II and for our group of four CEE economies.

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  • Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2004. "Nonlinear Exchange Rate Dynamics in Target Zones," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 46-69.
  • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2004:i:1:b:1

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Wilhelm Kohler & Christian Arndt & Anselm Mattes & Michael Knogler & Fidelis Lankes & Jarko Fidmuc, 2007. "Die neuen Mitglieder: Motor oder Bremse der europäischen Integration?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(14), pages 03-20, July.
    2. Filacek, Jan & Horvath, Roman & Skorepa, Michal, 2006. "Monetary Policy before Euro Adoption: Challenges for EU New Members," MPRA Paper 879, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Jarko Fidrmuc & Roman Horváth, 2006. "Credibility of Exchange Rate Policies in Selected EU New Members: Evidence from High Frequency Data," Working Papers IES 2006/28, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Oct 2006.
    4. Juraj Antal & Jan Filáček & Jan Frait & Roman Horvath & Viktor Kotlán & Michal Skořepa, 2009. "Monetary Policy Strategies before Euro Adoption: The Art of Chasing Many Rabbits," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 176-198, July.

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