Non-Linear Exchange Rate Dynamics in Target Zones: A Bumpy Road Towards A Honeymoon Some Evidence from the ERM, ERM2 and Selected New EU Member States
This study investigates exchange rate movements in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS) and in the Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM-II). On the basis of Bessec (2003), we set up a three-regime self-exciting threshold autoregressive model (SETAR) with a non-stationary central band and explicit modelling of the conditional variance. This modelling framework is employed to model daily DM-based and median currency-based bilateral exchange rates of countries participating in the original ERM and also for exchange rates of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia from 1999 to 2004. Our results confirm the presence of strong non-linearities and asymmetries in the ERM period, which, however, seem to differ across countries and diminish during the last stage of the run-up to the euro. Important non-linear adjustments are also detected for Denmark in ERM-2 and for our group of four CEE economies.
|Date of creation:||01 May 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 724 E. University Ave, Wyly Hall 1st Flr, Ann Arbor MI 48109|
Phone: 734 763-5020
Fax: 734 763-5850
Web page: http://www.wdi.umich.edu
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Anthony, Myrvin & MacDonald, Ronald, 1999. "The width of the band and exchange rate mean-reversion: some further ERM-based results," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 411-428.
- Bruce E. Hansen & Mehmet Caner, 1997.
"Threshold Autoregressions with a Unit Root,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
381, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Lundbergh, Stefan & Terasvirta, Timo, 2006.
"A time series model for an exchange rate in a target zone with applications,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 579-609.
- Timo Terasvirta, 2004. "A Time Series Model for an Exchange Rate in a Target Zone with Applications," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 340, Econometric Society.
- Lundbergh, Stefan & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2003. "A time series model for an exchange rate in a target zone with applications," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 533, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Chung, Chae-Shick & Tauchen, George, 2001. "Testing Target-Zone Models Using Efficient Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 255-69, July.
- Werner, Alejandro M., 1995. "Exchange rate target zones, realignments and the interest rate differential: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 353-367, November.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 2000.
"Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation,"
Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
- Beetsma, R.M.W.J. & van der Ploeg, F., 1993.
"Intramarginal interventions, bands and the pattern of EMS exchange rate distributions,"
1993-48, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Beetsma, Roel M W J & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1994. "Intramarginal Interventions, Bands and the Pattern of EMS Exchange Rate Distributions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 583-602, August.
- Bekaert, Geert & Gray, Stephen F., 1998.
"Target zones and exchange rates:: An empirical investigation,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-35, June.
- Geert Bekaert & Stephen F. Gray, 1996. "Target Zones and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 5445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992.
"Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
- Angel Serrat, 2000. "Exchange Rate Dynamics in a Multilateral Target Zone," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 193-211.
- Anthony, Myrvin & MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "On the mean-reverting properties of target zone exchange rates: Some evidence from the ERM," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(8), pages 1493-1523, September.
- Donald J Mathieson & Robert P Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 1991.
"An Empirical Exploration of Exchange Rate Target-Zones,"
IMF Working Papers
91/15, International Monetary Fund.
- Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K. & Mathieson, Donald J., 1991. "An empirical exploration of exchange-rate target-zones," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 7-65, January.
- Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose & Donald J. Mathieson, 1990. "An Empirical Exploration of Exchange Rate Target-Zones," NBER Working Papers 3543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ronald MacDonald, 1995.
"Long-Run Exchange Rate Modeling; A Survey of the Recent Evidence,"
IMF Working Papers
95/14, International Monetary Fund.
- Ronald Macdonald, 1995. "Long-Run Exchange Rate Modeling: A Survey of the Recent Evidence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(3), pages 437-489, September.
- Hansen, B.E., 1991.
"Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis,"
RCER Working Papers
296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March.
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
- Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1992.
"Target Zones and Realignments,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 520-36, June.
- Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Weeks, M., 1999. "Non-nested Hypothesis Testing: An Overview," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9918, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Kempa, Bernd & Nelles, Michael, 1999. " The Theory of Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 173-210, April.
- Miller, Marcus & Weller, Paul, 1991.
"Exchange Rate Bands with Price Inertia,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1380-99, November.
- Miller, Marcus & Weller, Paul, 1990. "Exchange Rate Bands with Price Inertia," CEPR Discussion Papers 421, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Miller M. & Weller, P., 1990. "Exchange Rate Bands With Price Inertia," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 337, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Ronald Macdonald & Mark P. Taylor, 1992.
"Exchange Rate Economics: A Survey,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(1), pages 1-57, March.
- Tristani, Oreste, 1994. " Variable Probability of Realignment in a Target Zone," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(1), pages 1-14.
- Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
- BESSEC Marie, . "The Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dynamics in the EMS: a Time-Varying Threshold Test," EcoMod2003 330700015, EcoMod.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2005-771. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Laurie Gendron)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.